Oregon-UCLA: Injuries Will Play a Big Role in Pasadena

Last Saturday at Autzen Stadium we learned a lot. But almost none of it was about the Oregon Ducks.

Oregon followed up its eye-opening upset victory over then-No. 6 Cal by lambasting a rebuilding Washington State squad 52-6. The Cougars simply looked outmatched at nearly every position, and their gutty performance against USC now feels like an aberration.

But a “minor” knee injury suffered by starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli late in the first half has turned out to be more serious than expected, and the team may have to play at the Rose Bowl without him.

The situation was compounded when senior cornerback Willie Glasper, replacement for the injured Walter Thurmond III, was lost for the season to a knee injury in practice this week.

The Ducks have a bye week coming up, but if they want to keep this season’s momentum going, their reserves will have to step up against UCLA.

The Bruins seemed to be on a roll themselves until they ran into Stanford. Toby Gerhart and the Cardinal ran over UCLA to hand them their first loss of the season.

Beating an Oregon team that, like the Cardinal, is considered to be a front runner in the early running for the Pac-10 title could turn the Bruins' season on its head, this time for the better.

Nobody on UCLA’s side will shed a tear if Masoli misses this game. Last year the Bruins defense was unable to deal with his mobility, allowing Masoli 170 yards on 24 rushes. Though UCLA held the Oregon passing game in check, the ground game was just enough for the Ducks to get the edge, 31-24.

No matter who lines up under center for the Ducks, their offense will key off of the running game as it has all season. The Bruins had looked stout against the run until last week. If Oregon’s offensive line can be as successful blocking against UCLA as the Cardinal was, the Bruins won’t have much of a chance.

Then again, with one of the league’s premier defensive linemen, Brian Price, leading the charge for UCLA, that is more easily said than done.

The key for the Ducks offense is to retain their balance, no matter who starts under center. Nate Costa has looked good in mop-up time, but he will have to conjure up the same chemistry with his receivers that Masoli was finally starting to build to prevent the Bruins from loading the box.

Injuries have taken their toll on both teams. UCLA may be without the services of star safety Rahim Moore, a less than rosy prospect given the number of players the Ducks have who can make plays in the open field.

The Ducks come into the game in far worse shape. Free safety T.J. Ward is listed as second string this week in Oregon’s media guide as he continues to nurse an ankle injury he suffered the first week of the season against Boise State. His status for this week’s game remains uncertain.

Of greater concern is the loss of two senior cornerbacks to season-ending injuries. With Glasper injured in practice this week, there are only three available corners listed on the Ducks' two-deep roster.

The question is whether UCLA can take advantage of the Ducks' depleted secondary. The Bruins have their own concerns at quarterback, with Kevin Prince still recovering from a broken jaw suffered against Tennessee and his status for this week’s game, like Masoli’s, uncertain.

Oregon’s defense has pleasantly surprised Duck fans all season. But the loss of so much experience in the secondary could make them vulnerable to big plays.

The question facing Oregon defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti is how to deal with these changes. Do the Ducks start playing more defenders in coverage and only sending three or four players on the rush, or do they start blitzing more often to get pressure on the quarterback?

There are disadvantages to either strategy, but UCLA is not terribly strong at the quarterback position no matter who makes the start (Kevin Craft actually has a better stat line over two games this season than Prince does). With that in mind, pressure might be the way to go until the Bruins show they can take advantage of single coverage.

UCLA’s defense has carried the team all year, and to upset the Ducks they must do so again. With an offense that has yet to find a rhythm, the Bruins defense must get turnovers and keep the score close for UCLA to have a chance. The Bruins won’t win in a shootout.

While Oregon seems like the more complete team at this point in the season, the fact remains that this is the Ducks' first game away from Autzen Stadium since the debacle against Boise State. If the Ducks lose their focus at the Rose Bowl, the Bruins' stifling defense and the energy that a team can only find when it is the underdog might be just enough to overcome any difference in overall talent.

If the Ducks can find the players to take care of business in Los Angeles, they have a bye week to try to get healthy before venturing north to play Washington. This game is critical to keep Oregon’s season on course as the conference race starts to take on its ultimate shape.

Assuming they avoid the classic recipes for losing on the road—turnovers and mistakes on special teams—I like the Ducks' depth to allow them to go toe-to-toe with the similarly wounded Bruins. But as a longtime Oregon fan, I know to weigh expectations to the side of modesty.

MY CALL: Oregon Ducks 24, UCLA Bruins 20