Clemson vs. Alabama: Odds and 2017 College Football Championship Prediction

Let Las Vegas tell it, and Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide should squeak past the Clemson Tigers for the second year in a row in Monday's College Football Playoff National Championship.

If only it were that simple. 

Clemson gave Alabama everything it could handle in last year's 45-40 thriller, as an onside kick was perhaps the lone difference between a win and a loss for the Tide. Odds aside, a similar story could play out Monday night in one of the most anticipated rematches in modern history.

Date	Odds	Time (ET)	Location	Watch	Live Stream
Monday, January 9	Alabama -6	8 p.m.	Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida	ESPN	WatchESPN

In a way, little has changed for either program, which is why the line makes plenty of sense.

Alabama drummed up an undefeated record, casually swatting away ranked teams in USC (52-6), Arkansas (49-30), Tennessee (49-10), Texas A&M (33-14), Auburn (30-12) and Florida (54-16).

Then there was the exclamation point—a full stop of the elite Washington offense in the CFP semifinal, a 24-7 win.

Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for 22 touchdowns and added another 12 on the ground as one facet of an elite rushing attack. His prolific breakout season is a big reason why oddsmakers have plenty of confidence in the Crimson Tide one year after Jake Coker's two passing scores against Clemson almost weren't enough to win the title.

It helps that Bo Scarbrough continues to look like a breakout star in the backfield. He had 109 carries for 719 yards and nine touchdowns with a 180-yard outburst coming against Washington.

"What's crazy, is a lot of those plays we didn't necessarily block them well," Alabama offensive tackle Cam Robinson said, according to Stats LLC (via ESPN.com). "He just made that happen. That's just the God-given ability that he has."

The biggest change for either team this year is the sudden departure of Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, who Saban decided should leave early for his next coaching opportunity.

Steve Sarkisian now holds the same role, and though he'll run the same offense with the same players, the swap has become the biggest storyline around the game.

Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney isn't buying it.

"It's not like they're going to run a different offense," Swinney said, according to Stats LLC. "You know, maybe he calls a couple more screens than the other guy would have called. I have no idea."

It's the expected approach. Suddenly swapping out coordinators on a freshman quarterback could come with repercussions, but Clemson knows better than to lean on such a chance for help. 

Not that the Tigers feel like they need any.

Clemson put on a defensive showcase most of the year thanks to an elite defensive line featuring players who can match the size of opposing offensive linemen yet are quick enough to get around them and apply pressure. That's how the Tigers blew past Ohio State in the semifinal, 31-0.

For linebacker Ben Boulware, going against Hurts is akin to facing any other experienced quarterback, freshman status or not, as Dear Old Clemson captured:

Clemson's defense merely has to worry about pinning its ears back and disrupting timing—the offense will take care of itself.

So it goes with Heisman Trophy contender Deshaun Watson under center. The junior put on another ridiculous performance this year, throwing for 4,173 yards and 38 touchdowns with another 586 yards and eight scores on the ground.

Watson doesn't go at it alone, not with Wayne Gallman looking like an NFL-ready back with 1,087 yards and 16 touchdowns. Speaking of NFL prospects, Mike Williams looks like the top wideout in this class after recording 90 grabs for 1,267 yards and 10 touchdowns.

That trio is likely to drop points on Alabama. Last year, Watson threw four touchdowns against the vaunted defense. He's arguably better this year, and Williams is playing at a high level, so doing so again wouldn't come as a shock.

Given the circumstances, those who are betting on the surefire classic can bank on the game being closer than Las Vegas expects. Watson will put numbers on the board as usual, though Hurts and an opportunistic Alabama defense will do much of the same.

As for the outright winner, it's hard not to go with the "and still" option and pick Alabama to win the rematch. Clemson has looked great and put up quite the fight last year, but Alabama's track record against top-tier programs this year is impossible to ignore.

It takes one or two interceptions from Watson for this one to go up in flames for the Tigers. Look for Alabama to force a few crucial mistakes and steal this one late while Hurts and his bevy of backs keep Watson off the field.

Prediction: Alabama 38, Clemson 35 

Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Follow Chris Roling (@Chris_Roling) on Twitter.