NFL Playoff Scenarios 2017: Complete Bracket Picture and AFC, NFC Odds
NFL fans know the six teams that will be in the AFC playoffs and have a general idea of which teams will battle in the NFC version with a couple of spots still up for grabs.
All will be decided in a loaded Week 17 slate that is highlighted by a winner-takes-all showdown in the NFC North between the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Those in the AFC playoffs will have to deal with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, while those in the NFC will have to deal with Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys, but the Lombardi Trophy looms.
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With that in mind, here is a complete breakdown of the postseason picture heading into Week 17.
The standings and "Reason" column are per ESPN.com's playoff standings, while the playoff scenarios coming into Week 17 are per NFL.com and ESPN.com.
The odds to win the Super Bowl are per Joe Osborne of OddsShark, as of Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. ET. The odds to win the AFC and NFC are per Stephen Campbell of OddsShark, although they are up to date as of Dec. 13.
Standings, Playoff Picture and Current Bracket
| AFC | |||||
| 1 | New England Patriots | 13-2 | 4-1 | 10-1 | AFC East champ |
| 2 | Oakland Raiders | 12-3 | 3-2 | 9-2 | AFC West champ |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-5 | 4-1 | 8-3 | AFC North champ |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 9-6 | 5-0 | 7-4 | AFC South champ |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 11-4 | 5-0 | 8-3 | -- |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins | 10-5 | 4-1 | 7-4 | -- |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 8-7 | 4-1 | 7-4 | Tiebreak over Denver and Tennessee on win percentage in conference games |
| 8 | Tennessee Titans | 8-7 | 1-4 | 5-6 | Tiebreak over Denver on head-to-head |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 8-7 | 1-4 | 5-6 | -- |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 7-8 | 2-3 | 4-7 | Tiebreak over Buffalo on strength of victory |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 7-8 | 1-4 | 4-7 | -- |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-9-1 | 2-3 | 4-7 | -- |
| 13 | San Diego Chargers | 5-10 | 1-4 | 4-7 | -- |
| 14 | New York Jets | 4-11 | 1-4 | 3-8 | -- |
| 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-12 | 2-3 | 2-9 | -- |
| 16 | Cleveland Browns | 1-14 | 0-5 | 1-10 | -- |
| NFC | |||||
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 13-2 | 3-2 | 9-2 | NFC East champ |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 10-5 | 4-1 | 8-3 | NFC South champ |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 9-5-1 | 2-2-1 | 5-5-1 | NFC West champ |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 9-6 | 4-1 | 7-4 | NFC North champ over Detroit on head-to-head |
| 5 | New York Giants | 10-5 | 3-2 | 7-4 | -- |
| 6 | Detroit Lions | 9-6 | 3-2 | 7-4 | -- |
| 7 | Washington | 8-6-1 | 3-2 | 6-5 | -- |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-7 | 3-2 | 6-5 | -- |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | 7-8 | 2-3 | 6-5 | Tiebreak over Minnesota on win percentage in conference games |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 7-8 | 1-4 | 4-7 | -- |
| 11 | Arizona Cardinals | 6-8-1 | 3-1-1 | 5-5-1 | -- |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers | 6-9 | 1-4 | 5-6 | Tiebreak over Philadelphia on win percentage in conference games |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 6-9 | 1-4 | 4-7 | -- |
| 14 | Los Angeles Rams | 4-11 | 2-3 | 3-8 | -- |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | 3-12 | 2-3 | 3-8 | -- |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers | 2-13 | 2-3 | 2-9 | -- |
For The Win shared what the playoff bracket would look like if the postseason started before Week 17:
Odds
| New England Patriots | 19-10 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 13-4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 11-1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11-1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 11-1 |
| New York Giants | 20-1 |
| Oakland Raiders | 28-1 |
| Detroit Lions | 50-1 |
| Houston Texans | 50-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 50-1 |
| Washington | 66-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 200-1 |
| New England Patriots | 13-10 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 17-5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-1 |
| Oakland Raiders | 17-2 |
| Houston Texans | 28-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 50-1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2-1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 11-4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 8-1 |
| New York Giants | 9-1 |
| Detroit Lions | 10-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20-1 |
| Washington | 28-1 |
Week 17 Schedule
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Buffalo Bills at New York Jets | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | New York Giants at Washington | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers | 4:25 p.m. |
| Sunday, Jan. 1 | Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions | 8:30 p.m. |
Playoff Scenarios
New England Patriots
The Patriots already clinched a first-round bye and will earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a victory over the Miami Dolphins or an Oakland Raiders loss to the Denver Broncos.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders will earn the AFC West crown and the first-round bye that comes with it if they beat or tie the Broncos. They can also earn the division title if the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the San Diego Chargers.
Oakland can earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if it wins and the Patriots lose.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs will win the AFC West and earn a first-round bye if they beat the Chargers and the Raiders lose to the Broncos.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are set as a wild-card team but can move into the No. 5 seed by pairing a win over the Patriots with a Chiefs loss to the Chargers.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons will clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye if they beat the New Orleans Saints.
They can also clinch the bye if they tie and the Seattle Seahawks lose to or tie the San Francisco 49ers. A Seattle loss paired with a Detroit Lions loss or tie against the Green Bay Packers would also give the Falcons the bye, as would a Seahawks tie and Lions loss.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are NFC West champions but can earn the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye with a victory over the 49ers and Falcons loss or tie against the Saints.
A Seattle tie paired with an Atlanta loss and tie between the Packers and Lions would also give the Seahawks the first-round bye.
Detroit Lions
The Lions have a straightforward path to the NFC North title—beat the Packers.
They can also earn a first-round bye with a win paired with a Seahawks loss or tie against the 49ers and Falcons loss to the Saints.
The Lions will earn a playoff spot if they tie the Packers or if Washington losses to or ties the New York Giants.
Green Bay Packers
Like the Lions, the Packers can win the NFC North with a victory in their head-to-head showdown. However, Green Bay would also earn the division crown if they tie.
The Packers will clinch a playoff spot if Washington loses to the Giants or the following scenario plays out, per NFL.com: "WAS tie + TB win + GB clinches at least a tie in strength of victory over TB (Note: GB clinches at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over TB if one of the following teams win or tie: SEA, HOU, JAX, PHI. GB has already clinched strength of schedule tiebreaker over TB in this scenario)."
Washington
Washington will earn a playoff spot with a win over the Giants as long as the game between the Packers and Lions doesn't end in a tie. Washington would also clinch the postseason with a tie paired with a Packers loss and Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss or tie against the Carolina Panthers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers will earn a playoff spot with the following scenario, per NFL.com: "TB win + WAS tie + GB loss + TB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over GB (Note: TB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over GB if all of the following teams win: TEN, IND, DAL and SF)."
Team-by-Team Key Predictions
New England Patriots
The Patriots will take care of business and beat the Dolphins, giving them home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders will not earn the first-round bye because they will lose to the Broncos without the injured Derek Carr. To Matt McGloin's credit, he seemed ready to assume the mantle, per Eddie Paskal of the Raiders' official website, but will still be outmanned by the defending Super Bowl champions:
"It's exciting," McGloin said. "This is a position you want to be in. This is why you spend so much time trying to master your craft."
The Chiefs will also beat the Chargers and knock Oakland out of the first-round bye position.
Kansas City Chiefs
As mentioned above, the Chiefs will win the division and the first-round bye when they beat the Chargers and Oakland drops its game to the Broncos without its starting quarterback.
Miami Dolphins
While the Dolphins could improve their seeding with a win, they will stay in the No. 6 spot with a loss against the juggernaut Patriots. New England is still playing for home-field advantage and will plays its starters accordingly.
Atlanta Falcons
Brandon Kiley of 101 ESPN in St. Louis noted the Falcons boast the highest-rated offense in DVOA against the best schedule in the league, according to Football Outsiders. That offense will exploit a Saints defense that is an abysmal 30th in the league in points allowed per game, which will give Matt Ryan and Co. the first-round bye.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks will beat the hapless 49ers but still be left on the outside looking in at the first-round byes because of the Falcons' victory over the Saints.
Detroit Lions
Unfortunately for Detroit, it will not beat a red-hot Packers team that has won five games in a row. That will give Green Bay the division.
That won't be the end of the bad news for the Lions because Washington will beat a Giants team that is locked into the No. 5 seed and will use caution with their key playmakers.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay's victory over Detroit will give it the NFC North title and the right to a home playoff game.
Washington
As mentioned in the Lions' section, Washington will earn a wild-card spot by beating a Giants team not playing for anything in Week 17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, the crazy scenario necessary for them to reach the playoffs will not occur because Washington will not tie and the Packers will not lose.
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