Paige VanZant vs. Michelle Waterson: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The UFC returns to Fox with a fun strawweight main event.
Paige VanZant takes on Michelle Waterson in a fight that doesn't have immediate title implications but gives the victor a platform to state her case for contention.
VanZant is coming off a stunning switch kick knockout over Bec Rawlings, while Waterson returns after more than a year away from the cage.
Stylistically, it's an intriguing matchup to see how far along VanZant is in her progression and what Waterson has left in the tank. Waterson, a former Invicta FC atomweight champion, is one of the more undersized competitors in the division. Can she overcome size and strength to become a contender?
Let's break it down and find out who gets a big boost in the UFC on Fox 22 main event.
Striking
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On paper, this is a clear "striker vs. grappler" matchup, but it's a bit more nuanced than that would suggest.
VanZant is improving across the board. In her last bout, she knocked out Bec Rawlings with a switch kick. Also, Waterson is incredibly well-rounded with an underrated ground game. Still, on the feet, The Karate Hottie is much more technically sound.
VanZant still has issues with her defense. She took more total strikes, per FightMetric, than she dealt against Rawlings, who is a basic striker at best.
Waterson has a complete striking attack that may give VanZant trouble. The reach advantage for VanZant could be her saving grace, but her defensive history shows that Waterson should still find success. How effective she can be will determine the fight.
Edge: Waterson
Grappling
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As stated in the prior slide, it's a "grappler vs. striker" matchup. VanZant is the grappler.
Waterson is a decent grappler in her own right, which is to be expected after years of training at Jackson Wink MMA. But it's not her most effective game, and it won't be against VanZant.
VanZant can pressure endlessly. She can fall back on her wrestling to help her escape rounds or stall her opponents.
She will also have a size and strength advantage over Waterson. She'll have to time her entries to avoid countershots and will also have to be cautious of Waterson's active guard. But overall, she is the better grappler in this contest.
Edge: VanZant
Submissions
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VanZant may be the better grappler, but she doesn't have as diverse of a submission game as Waterson.
VanZant's submissions are basic. From wrestling to jiu-jitsu, she has made a standard transition. There's nothing wrong with that, but it does limit the scope of what she is able to do. Waterson is much more developed as a submission artist.
Having an armbar win over Jessica Penne only highlights what she is able to do. She is not to be underestimated.
Waterson has finishing ability from bottom or top and has a wide-ranging repertoire of which to work from. VanZant will have a much more difficult time finding a submission than Waterson.
Edge: Waterson
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X-Factors
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VanZant's X-Factor: Fight IQ
Against Waterson, VanZant's progression on the feet will need to be examined. After her switch kick KO over Rawlings, it is easy to overvalue the accomplishment. It's not a common technique to be successful with, after all.
However, context matters.
Rawlings is not a top-tier striker, and VanZant repeatedly failed with the attempt earlier in the fight. Did she simply get lucky, or was she able to see a flaw in Rawling's attacks that allowed her to continue trying the switch kick? The answer to that question is all about VanZant's fight IQ. If it's the former, Waterson should win the stand-up exchanges easily. If it's the latter, VanZant will be a difficult task for Waterson.
VanZant is still a developing fighter, and gaining experience helps to develop the fight IQ needed to make in-cage adjustments. Those adjustments will be as crucial as ever against the talented Waterson.
Waterson's X-Factor: Late-Round Experience
VanZant has only been into the later rounds once, and it was when Rose Namajunas was beating her to a bloody pulp.
Waterson has more meaningful championship experience. She didn't get to the fourth round by simply surviving a beating. She was going toe-to-toe with a talented fighter (Jessica Penne). More importantly, she won that fight after adversity.
VanZant has yet to prove she can do that. Waterson may be able to exploit her in a similar fashion as she gets more tired and sloppy in the later rounds.
Prediction
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The smart money is on VanZant. She's on the upside of her career, is getting better and is the more physical fighter. Her style should allow her to stifle Waterson even if she is getting outgunned on the feet.
She opened as more than a 2-1 favorite over Waterson, per OddsShark, and is now down to 5-6 odds on some books. That's good value on the favorite.
But...I just don't have faith in her quite yet.
Waterson is going to be a difficult stylistic matchup for her to finish. She'll likely win the early rounds with her aggressive style, but as she fails to put Waterson away, she'll get sloppy. That's where the veteran can capitalize off her back.
Waterson takes an early beating but is able to finish VanZant with a triangle or armbar in the fourth. Critics will start coming for VanZant, but the fight will show more positives than negatives. She just won't get her hand raised.
Prediction: Waterson def. VanZant via submission in the fourth round
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