Cricket Odds: Australia vs. Pakistan 1st Test Betting Preview, Analysis

The Gabba in Brisbane has been an Australian fortress for nearly 30 years. The last touring team to go there and win a Test were the legendary West Indies team of 1988, and while this week's Test between Australia and Pakistan will be the first played under day-night conditions at the venue, the betting markets are tipping another home victory.

Australia's past few months have been some of the roughest in recent cricketing history for the proud nation, with Test series losses away to Sri Lanka and at home to South Africa. That led to a massive changing of the guard ahead of the final Test of that South Africa series in Adelaide, with the chairman of selectors replaced and five changes made to the starting XI.

Included in that five were three debutant batsmen, and the team approached their task in Adelaide with a renewed energy, winning the dead rubber easily.

As a result of that, plus a dominant 3-0 series sweep of New Zealand in one-day cricket, the home side go in as $1.36 favorites for this match, which starts Thursday, while the Aussies are $1.25 to win the series, according to AustralianGambling.com.au.

Those odds seem remarkable for a team that had lost five Tests in succession and looked like they were going nowhere prior to Adelaide. But Australian bookmakers have a habit of underquoting on the Aussies, who started as favorites for the two home Tests they lost to South Africa in Perth and Hobart.

Pakistan are $6.20 to win this match, having not played a Test in Brisbane since 1999 and having lost nine consecutive Tests in Australia, a streak that goes back to 1995.

Typical of Pakistani teams, there is plenty of talent here. The question is how they can apply themselves. Their batting is led by the trio of Azhar Ali, Younis Khan and Misbah ul Haq, all of whom are both experienced and talented.

The fitness of leg-spinner Yasir Shah, who has taken 40 Test wickets in the second half of this year, is crucial to their chances. He has had back issues and is no certainty to line up despite being $4 to take the most first-innings wickets.

Heading that market is Mohammad Amir at $3.25. Amir's career mirrors the roller coaster that is Pakistan cricket. He was jailed over his involvement in spot-fixing as a teenager and spent six years out of the game. His return to the Test arena has been promising, and he recently bowled a mesmerizing spell with the pink ball in a tour match.

Amir's tribulations and those of his nation put Australia's spot of trouble last month into perspective.

David Warner looks to be back in touch after a pair of ODI centuries against New Zealand, while Usman Khawaja is coming off a ton in the most recent Test.

The Aussie bowling attack will enjoy the humid Queensland conditions as well, with Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood both bowling well in Adelaide. Expect Nathan Lyon to fare much better than he did earlier in the summer. The Gabba is statistically one of his best grounds.

The expectation is that Australia will have too much experience and depth and that Pakistan will again fold. But you suspect the difference between these two teams is not as great as the betting markets indicate. At the very least, it will be fascinating to watch what this resurgent Pakistan team put forward.