NFL Playoff Picture Week 15: AFC, NFC 2016 Postseason Scenarios and Predictions
Every game takes on importance in the stretch run of the NFL season as teams battle for playoff positioning, but Week 14 in particular was loaded with impactful results.
The Kansas City Chiefs seized control of the AFC West and battle for a first-round bye with a win over the Oakland Raiders, the Green Bay Packers remained within striking distance of the NFC North and knocked the Seattle Seahawks out of a first-round bye spot with a blowout win over Russell Wilson and Co., and the New York Giants prevented the Dallas Cowboys from clinching the NFC East.
Elsewhere, the defending champion Denver Broncos fell to a precarious position with a loss to the Tennessee Titans, and the Houston Texans outlasted the Indianapolis Colts in a critical AFC South showdown.
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With that in mind, here is a look at the playoff picture heading into Week 15, as well as a breakdown of various scenarios and predictions by division. The current playoff standings and reasoning for the positions are courtesy of ESPN.com.
Playoff Picture Standings
| Rank | Team | Record | Division Record | Conference Record | Reason |
| 1 | New England Patriots | 11-2 | 3-1 | 8-1 | AFC East Champ |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 10-3 | 4-0 | 7-2 | AFC West Champ (wins tiebreak over Oakland Raiders with head-to-head) |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-5 | 2-1 | 6-3 | AFC North Champ |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 7-6 | 4-0 | 5-4 | AFC South Champ (wins tiebreak over Tennessee Titans with head-to-head) |
| 5 | Oakland Raiders | 10-3 | 2-2 | 7-2 | -- |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 8-5 | 1-3 | 5-4 | Wins tiebreak over Miami Dolphins with win percentage in common games |
| 7 | Miami Dolphins | 8-5 | 2-1 | 5-4 | -- |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 7-6 | 4-0 | 7-3 | Wins tiebreak with Tennessee Titans with win percentage in conference games |
| 9 | Tennessee Titans | 7-6 | 1-3 | 4-5 | -- |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 6-7 | 2-3 | 4-6 | Wins tiebreak over Buffalo Bills with win percentage in conference games |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 6-7 | 1-3 | 3-6 | -- |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-7-1 | 2-2 | 4-5 | -- |
| 13 | San Diego Chargers | 5-8 | 1-3 | 4-5 | -- |
| 14 | New York Jets | 4-9 | 1-2 | 3-6 | -- |
| 15 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-11 | 1-2 | 1-8 | -- |
| 16 | Cleveland Browns | 0-13 | 0-5 | 0-9 | -- |
| Rank | Team | Record | Division Record | Conference Record | Reason |
| 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 11-2 | 3-2 | 7-2 | NFC East Champ |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 9-4 | 3-2 | 7-2 | NFC North Champ |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 8-4-1 | 1-1-1 | 4-4-1 | NFC West Champ |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 8-5 | 3-1 | 6-3 | NFC South Champ (wins tiebreak over Tampa Bay Buccaneers with win percentage in common games) |
| 5 | New York Giants | 9-4 | 3-1 | 6-3 | -- |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-5 | 3-1 | 6-3 | -- |
| 7 | Washington | 7-5-1 | 3-2 | 5-4 | -- |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 7-6 | 1-3 | 4-6 | Wins tiebreak over Green Bay Packers with head-to-head |
| 9 | Green Bay Packers | 7-6 | 2-1 | 5-4 | -- |
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | 5-7-1 | 2-1-1 | 4-4-1 | -- |
| 11 | New Orleans Saints | 5-8 | 1-3 | 4-5 | Wins tiebreak over Philadelphia Eagles with win percentage in conference games. Wins tiebreak over Carolina Panthers on win percentage in common games |
| 12 | Carolina Panthers | 5-8 | 1-3 | 4-5 | Wins tiebreak over Philadelphia Eagles on win percentage in conference games |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 5-8 | 0-4 | 3-7 | -- |
| 14 | Los Angeles Rams | 4-9 | 2-1 | 3-6 | -- |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | 3-10 | 2-2 | 3-6 | -- |
| 16 | San Francisco 49ers | 1-12 | 1-3 | 1-8 | -- |
Postseason Scenarios and Predictions
NFC East
The 11-2 Cowboys can't figure out the Giants, but they still control their own destiny in the division and race for the No. 1 seed.
The two remaining home games against the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will not be easy, and the Lions contest will have a direct impact on the race for that top seed. Still, Dallas finishes with the free-falling Philadelphia Eagles, who have lost six of seven, and a two-game cushion gives it room to slip once and still win the division and home field in the playoffs.
That leaves the red-hot Giants as a wild-card winner even though they have to play Detroit in their next game.
Washington will eclipse the Buccaneers and earn the second wild card based on its upcoming schedule. It will beat the 3-10 Chicago Bears and 5-8 Carolina Panthers before a home game against the Giants. However, the Giants will have already clinched at that point after beating the Eagles in Week 16 and will rest their primary playmakers.
Prediction: The Cowboys will earn the No. 1 seed while New York and Washington clinch the two NFC wild cards.
NFC North
The 7-6 Minnesota Vikings have lost six of eight since their 5-0 start and will continue sliding downhill in the standings and not factor into the final postseason picture.
That leaves the Lions fighting the Packers for first place and the only playoff spot that will be available to the NFC North after the NFC East's strong finish. While Green Bay is trailing by two games in the division, it will eclipse the Lions with wins against the abysmal Bears and struggling Vikings before closing with a head-to-head game against Detroit.
Aaron Rodgers already beat the Lions once this season and will do so again. He surely seemed confident when asked how he felt about Green Bay's playoff chances, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com: "I'd say strong to quite strong."
That will give Green Bay the division crown after Detroit loses difficult road games to the Cowboys and Giants in the upcoming weeks.
Prediction: The Packers will win the division as the only playoff team in the NFC North.
NFC South
Realistically, this is a race between the 8-5 Buccaneers and the 8-5 Atlanta Falcons for the division crown. They split the head-to-heads, but Atlanta is clinging to the common-game-win-percentage tiebreaker after Week 14.
This will come down to the Week 15 schedule since they both play the 5-8 Panthers and 5-8 New Orleans Saints in the final two weeks.
Tampa Bay has to travel to Dallas on Sunday to face a Cowboys team that is looking to bounce back from their first loss since Week 1. The Falcons get the benefit of playing the 1-12 San Francisco 49ers and will create the one-game separation that will determine the final standings.
Prediction: The Falcons win the NFC South as the division's only playoff team. The Buccaneers finish 10-6 with a 2-1 closing stretch but will lose the second wild card to a 10-5-1 Washington team that wins out.
NFC West
This division is fairly simple. The 8-4-1 Seahawks are the only team better than 5-7-1 and will easily win the NFC West.
The only remaining drama is whether they will outlast the Lions, Falcons or Packers for a first-round bye behind Dallas, and they will with wins against the Los Angeles Rams, Arizona Cardinals and 49ers. Those three opponents are a combined 10-28-1 and will not prevent Seattle from claiming the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
Prediction: The Seahawks win the division and earn a first-round bye in the playoffs.
AFC East
The 6-7 Buffalo Bills are still mathematically alive in the playoff race but have lost five of their last seven and will not factor into the final postseason picture.
The only real race for the 11-2 New England Patriots after their win over the Baltimore Ravens on Monday is the one for the No. 1 seed in the AFC with the AFC West teams. The Patriots have lost only once since Tom Brady returned from his suspension, and that was by seven points to the Seahawks.
They will win out and clinch that top spot.
New England will be joined in the playoffs by the Miami Dolphins, who will finish with a 2-1 mark after winning seven of their last eight games. While that loss will come to the mighty Patriots, wins over the slipping Bills and hapless New York Jets will be enough for a 10-6 record and wild-card berth.
Prediction: The Patriots will win the division and the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Dolphins will do enough to earn a wild card.
AFC North
For predictive purposes, the 5-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals will not be a playoff team.
That leaves the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ravens fighting for the division crown and a potential wild card. Pittsburgh has a one-game lead after Baltimore's loss to the Patriots, but the two teams play each other in Week 16.
Pittsburgh (Cincinnati and Cleveland Browns) and Baltimore (Philadelphia and Cincinnati) will win the other two games on their respective schedules, but the Steelers will clinch the playoffs with a home victory over the Ravens.
That means the 9-7 Ravens will also miss out on a wild-card spot behind the 10-6 Dolphins and 12-4 Oakland Raiders.
Prediction: The Steelers will win the division, while the Ravens miss the playoffs by a single game.
AFC South
Mediocrity is the name of the game in the AFC South. The 7-6 Texans and 7-6 Titans are ahead of the 6-7 Colts, but Houston would win the division at this point because it beat the Titans in their one head-to-head meeting.
However, the Texans and Titans square off in the season finale in Tennessee.
Houston will have a one-game lead going into that contest after home wins against the 2-11 Jacksonville Jaguars and 5-7-1 Bengals. The Titans will lose at Kansas City but remain within striking distance with a win over the Jaguars.
While the game is in Tennessee, the thought here is Houston beats the Titans again. Its defense, which finished Sunday's action sixth in the league in yards allowed per game, held Marcus Mariota to 13-of-29 passing for zero touchdowns and one interception in the first meeting and will contain the Oregon product again in the second game.
The Colts will finish 8-8 with a loss at the Raiders and wins over the Vikings and Jaguars and miss the playoffs.
Prediction: The Texans will win the division as the AFC South's only playoff team.
AFC West
This is arguably the best division in football and could produce three playoff teams.
The Chiefs beat the Raiders twice and control their own destiny for the AFC West crown and a first-round bye in the AFC, and they will take full advantage of the opportunity. Kansas City is 5-1 at home and will win out with home contests against the Titans and Broncos (who it already beat in Denver) and a road game against the 5-8 San Diego Chargers.
The Raiders will still earn a wild card with wins over the Chargers and Colts before losing at Denver to finish the season.
While the Broncos will get that win, their schedule will prove too difficult down the stretch against the Patriots, Chiefs and Raiders. They will go 1-2, while the Dolphins will finish 2-1 and keep the defending champions out of the playoffs.
Prediction: The Chiefs will win the division and earn a first-round bye. The Raiders will make the playoffs as a wild card, but Denver will be on the outside looking in.
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