Orange Bowl 2016: Updated Odds and Preview for Michigan vs. Florida State

Florida State's national championship hopes were over five games into the 2016 season. For Michigan, it took until the final seconds of its regular season.

Regardless of path, the two storied programs find themselves going head-to-head at the 2016 Capital One Orange Bowl the night before the College Football Playoff kicks off. The Seminoles enter having won four straight games since their three-point loss to Clemson, while Michigan closed with two losses in its final three games.

Once seemingly mortal locks for the playoff, the Wolverines dropped a road game to Iowa and fell in double overtime against rival Ohio State. Their losses came by a combined four points, and Football Outsiders' metrics pegged them as the second-best team in the country. Only undefeated Alabama was better.

Date	Time	Network
Friday, December 30	8 p.m. ET	ESPN

Michigan tight end Jake Butt spoke with reporters about the team's mindset:

"

It's disappointing, it is. But you've got to remind yourself that we put ourselves in that position and we had plenty of opportunities to change outcomes. The season was in our hands, and we didn't get things done when they needed to get done. It's disappointing, but you can't dwell on the past. There's still a big game to play at the end of December. We're not going to let that opportunity slip by worrying about what could have been.

"

The Wolverines instead walk into the Orange Bowl as seven-point favorites over Florida State, per OddsShark. That spread is tied for the second-largest among New Year's Six games, with only Alabama's 16-point mark over Washington being higher.

Michigan got to this point on the back of perhaps the nation's best defense. Football Outsiders' S&P Rating measured Michigan as giving up 5.1 adjusted points per game, more than two points better than any other team in the country. Alabama was the only other team nationally to give up fewer than 13 a game. 

To put it another way: Michigan's defense gave up fewer than half as many adjusted points as 126 of the 127 other FBS teams. That's, to put it mildly, insane. The Wolverines' defensive rating is by far the best in the three years Football Outsiders has put its S&P numbers in a points-per-game format.

Leading the charge is Heisman Trophy candidate Jabrill Peppers, who posted 66 tackles (13 for loss) and three sacks during the regular season. Peppers is a near-surefire top-10 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, assuming he chooses to declare and forgo his two years of remaining eligibility.

There are size concerns with Peppers being listed at just 6'1" and 205 pounds, but his physical gifts make it possible for him to play three different positions at the pro level.

"The unique thing is all the positions he plays," Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh said, per David Mayo of MLive. "You start counting them—safety, corner, nickel, outside linebacker, slot receiver, Wildcat quarterback, running back, kick returner, punt returner, gunner, hold-up—that's 11 or 12 right there. And I know there's others he could do, and do well."

The Wolverines will nonetheless face perhaps their toughest offensive challenge yet in Seminoles running back Dalvin Cook. The junior scampered for 1,620 yards and 18 touchdowns during the regular season, including eight 100-yard games in his last nine.

Earlier this season, he set Florida State's all-time record with 45 rushing touchdowns.

STEVEN CANNON/Associated Press

Cook spoke with reporters about his time as a Seminole in late November:

"

I feel like I did a great job, and I’m leaving my mark at Florida State. These fans and everybody knows I love Florida State. I wouldn’t have changed my (college) decision for the world. This fan base, the athletic people, the academics (staff), they do a great job of showing the love and making it a fun experience.

"

The hand-wringing for both sides offensively comes when they take the ball to the air.

Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight valiantly played at less than 100 percent in the loss to Ohio State but has mostly been relegated to game-manager duties. According to ESPN.com, Speight turned in QBRs of 10.5 and 21.4 over his last two games.

The Wolverines largely used their stable of rushers to control the clock and keep their star-studded defense fresh.

Deondre Francois has been a more effective option for Florida State, but he's still a freshman who has been given a gradually longer leash. Francois hasn't had quite the back-to-back lows of Speight, but he's thrown for multiple touchdowns in only five games this season and has similarly game-managey stats from an overall perspective.

There is also no defense that even comes close to replicating Michigan in the ACC.

This has the feel of a game that will be closer than the touchdown spread but will come down to which quarterback can competently lead his team the best.

With Florida State's defense grading out as simply good rather than historically great, the smart money remains on the Wolverines.