SEC Championship 2016: Final Odds, Preview, Prediction for Alabama vs. Florida

One game separates Alabama from another SEC title and another spot as the top seed in the College Football Playoff, but once again it is Florida that stands in the way of those goals.

The Crimson Tide battle the Gators on Saturday in Atlanta for the second consecutive season, as Alabama cruised to a 29-15 victory last year. A win in the 2016 SEC Championship would give head coach Nick Saban's team its third straight conference crown.

Let us take a look at the schedule and final odds for the game, as well as a breakdown and prediction for this clash between two traditional SEC powers. Odds are courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Date	Matchup	Time (ET)	Network
Saturday, Dec. 3	Alabama vs. Florida	4 p.m.	CBS

Matchup	Spread	O/U
Alabama vs. Florida	Alabama -24	40.5

Game Preview

Alabama is significantly favored over Florida, particularly for a conference championship game. However, the circumstances surrounding this contest indicate there is a good reason why.

The Crimson Tide boast the nation's top defense, which could possibly be among the best in college football history. They lead the country in scoring defense, with 11.4 points allowed per game, total defense (246.8 yards allowed per game) and rushing defense at a measly 68.7 yards yielded per contest. 

Led by a dominant front seven featuring Jonathan Allen and Reuben Foster, Alabama is simply rolling opponents this year from a defensive standpoint. Take an expanded look at just how ridiculously great this unit has been throughout the season:

Another aspect of this effectiveness is simple fundamentals. As Pro Football Focus' Mike Renner noted, Alabama limits its mistakes in the open field and prevents teams from extending plays:

"

Alabama has missed tackles on only 7.6% of their attempts this season, easily the best in the country.

The NCAA average is 13.4%

— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) November 30, 2016"

This is certainly bad news for Florida, as the Gators have struggled all season to move the ball. The team has not scored at least 25 points in six of its last seven games, and Florida ranks an abysmal 114th nationally in total offense with 352.7 yards produced per contest.

With only 2,322 passing yards and 14 touchdowns accumulated this season by quarterbacks Austin Appleby and Luke Del Rio, Florida leans on a quality running game to scrape together offense. Jordan Scatlett leads this charge with 778 yards and six scores, but Lamical Perine and Mark Thompson contribute as well.

Traditional offenses typically struggle against Alabama, as the Crimson Tide thrive on physically imposing teams at the line of scrimmage. Just ask Michigan State after last season's playoff. It is teams like Clemson and Mississippi that have found success against Alabama's defense by playing at a fast pace, spreading out the field and getting the ball to playmakers in space. These teams scored at least 40 points against the Crimson Tide in the last two seasons, with the Rebels doing so twice.

Unfortunately for Florida, it does not have the personnel to replicate this strategy. No player outside of Antonio Callaway can stretch out Alabama's defense enough to be considered a threat, but the Gators do have a formidable defense of their own that can keep them in the game.

Florida also ranks among the best nationally in numerous defensive categories:

Category	National Rank
Scoring Defense	5
Total Defense	6
Passing Defense	3
Rushing Defense	31
Third Down Defense	25
First Downs Allowed	5

This should allow the Gators to limit Alabama to some field goals and stops to keep this one close, but the Crimson Tide should have enough offense to pull out a win.

Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a revelation for Alabama, notching 2,454 yards and 21 touchdowns throwing to go with 840 yards and 12 scores on the ground. He's shown tremendous poise all season long, earning road wins at LSU, Mississippi and Tennessee. Hurts also has a strong array of weapons to support him offensively.

Damien Harris has been steady in the Alabama backfield, gaining 900 yards rushing on just 123 carries. Alabama may also boast the best receiving group in the SEC, as each presents different matchup problems for opposing defenses:

Player	Catches	Yards	Yards Per Catch	Touchdowns
O.J. Howard	35	404	11.5	2
Calvin RIdley	62	684	11	7
ArDarius Stewart	49	810	16.5	8

In the end, Alabama has just too much going in its favor, as Florida appears outmatched in this contest. The Crimson Tide have won five straight over the Gators, and expect that streak to run to six on Saturday.

Statistics are courtesy of NCAA.com.