Any Day Now: 10 Player Breakouts We're Still Waiting to See
As a result of sports fans annually searching for breakout candidates, some players regularly reside on the list.
They have the skills and the pedigree associated with a high draft slot or positive early returns. Even though they routinely fall short of expectations, they also perform well enough to keep supporters optimistic.
Every year seems like the year they leap from solid contributor to superstar. And every year, fans leave wanting more. It's a vicious cycle for athletes who have yet to hit their ceiling despite entering what should be their peak years.
Are the following players more hype than merit? Is it simply time to adjust expectations for a good but not elite competitor? Or should everyone just exude a little patience?
Let's break down some notable cases and determine what lies ahead.
Bradley Beal
1 of 10
Bradley Beal signed a five-year, $128 million max-contract extension with the Washington Wizards days after turning 23. He's doing just fine for himself, even if everyone still envisions his potential over his actual performance.
Going back to his college days on the Florida Gators, it's easy to see how the shooting guard's smooth shooting stroke could conjure comparisons to Ray Allen. Only one problem: Beal sports an average 42.6 field-goal percentage over his career with a 39.6 percentage from downtown. His 52.3 true-shooting percentage, per Basketball-Reference.com, is quite a ways off from Allen's 58.0 percentage.
Early into his fifth season, he has recorded 20.2 points per game with a 26.1 usage rate after dropping 42 on the Phoenix Suns Monday night. Opponents have scored 112 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, and he's rebounding has regressed with a career-low 2.7 boards per contest.
Beal has never played more than 73 games in a single season, so Washington must worry about his long-term health throughout his lucrative deal. If he doesn't harness his polished jumper into superior efficacy, the Wizards may rue handing him a max contract.
Will the Wait End?
Beal's best days have yet to come. The 23-year-old has plenty of time to hit his stride, especially if the Wizards can ever get their act together. He has shown his massive upside by scoring 76 over his last two games.
Without John Wall, he'd probably average over 20 points a night annually. As of now, however, he has yet to morph into the star sidekick they expected after being eliminated in the second round for two straight seasons. Eventually, his shooting results need to consistently match his reputation.
Blake Bortles
2 of 10
Now wait just a minute, anyone who rostered Blake Bortles in a fantasy football league last year will think. Doesn't 4,428 passing yards and 35 touchdowns qualify as a breakout season?
Not when accompanied by a 58.6 completion percentage, 18 interceptions and a 88.2 quarterback rating that ranked No. 23 among all passers. Constantly playing from behind, he padded his stats with 603 pass attempts for the 5-11 Jacksonville Jaguars, and only four of his 14 fourth-quarter touchdowns occurred in games with a margin of seven points or fewer.
He has taken a step backward this season, netting a mediocre 6.32 yards per pass attempt and 80.0 quarterback rating. Although amounting more to random misfortune, he has improbably thrown two interceptions that ricocheted off a receiver's foot in consecutive weeks.
The Ringer's Rodger Sherman provided some in-depth analysis of the third-year pro's struggles:
"Part of this was that Blake Bortles is bad at throwing footballs where he wants them to go, which is an unfortunate trait for a professional quarterback. His attempt to ground the ball should not have hit his teammate’s foot. His attempt to pass the ball to his teammate should not have been yards behind his teammate.
"
Upon entering 2016 with unaccustomed optimism, the 2-8 Jaguars are once again lounging comfortably in last place. Bortles sure isn't helping them escape their misery.
Will the Wait End?
Even if his sophomore season was overblown, Bortles showed progress of morphing into a productive starting quarterback. While the Jaguars will dream about a world in which they waited a round to take Derek Carr instead, they can live with using the No. 3 pick on a decent quarterback.
Bortles has the arm strength and upside to amount to much more, but he could also flutter enough to cause the maligned franchise to restart another quarterback search in a few years.
He's probably closer to Jay Cutler than Ben Roethlisberger, a popular comparison spouted by everyone, including the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback himself.
Byron Buxton
3 of 10
It's probably unfair to include Byron Buxton so early in his career. The center fielder has only played 138 games scattered over two seasons for the Minnesota Twins, so it's far too early to write him off. But this is what happens when a guy branded as the next big thing looks overmatched.
In 2015, MLB.com rated Buxton ahead of Corey Seager as its top prospect. Heading into the season, Torii Hunter told Bleacher Report's Scott Miller that the five-tool standout is "Mike Trout Two." Like the Los Angeles Angels superstar, his debut went poorly, hitting .206/.250/.326 in 46 games.
After seeing how quickly Trout turned the corner, observers happily gave Buxton a mulligan. He once again struggled in 2016, batting .225/.284/.430. Among all batters with at least 300 plate appearances, per FanGraphs, only Twins teammate Miguel Sano finished with a higher strikeout percentage than the 22-year-old's horrid 35.6 clip.
Hold off on branding Buxton a bust. He showed what all the fuss is about by hitting .287/.357/.653 with nine homers after Sept. 1. He still struck out 38 times over 29 games, but the power outburst was a welcome sign from a young speed demon capable of swiping 50 bags and playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.
Will the Wait End?
Let's take those Trout comparisons and lock them in a safe drawer for now. It's not fair to expect anyone to justify an MVP nod every year. Buxton, however, doesn't need to replicate one of the greatest baseball players of all time to realize his potential.
His long swing may hamper him from securing a high average any time soon, but the youngster boasts a dangerous blend of power and speed. Carlos Gomez during his best years is probably a more responsible comparison, but that also doesn't do his ceiling justice.
He still has the makings of a perennial All-Star, and fans should get a better taste of his remarkable talent next year.
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Travis d'Arnaud
4 of 10
At times perceived as a potential All-Star catcher, Travis d'Arnaud is now fighting for his spot as the New York Mets' starter.
Acquired with Noah Syndergaard from the Toronto Blue Jays for R.A. Dickey, the highly touted youngster has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He has played 250 games over the past three seasons, meaning he has sat off nearly half of the possible 486 bouts.
He showed spurts of stardom when healthy in 2015, hitting .268/.340/.485 in 67 games for the National League champions. The following season, however, he hit a troubling .247/.307/.323 and once again spent most of the year on the disabled list. Per FanGraphs, his ground-ball rate soared from 37.0 to 52.2 percent.
The Mets wouldn't have dreamed of trading him last year, but they reportedly offered the 27-year-old to the Milwaukee Brewers for Jonathan Lucroy before this summer's trade deadline, per the New York Daily News' Kristie Ackert. According to ESPN.com's Adam Rubin, his starting job is in jeopardy as "the Mets plan to at least keep their eye open for external options for their top catcher role" this offseason.
Will the Wait End?
Off years happen, so d'Arnaud certainly wouldn't be the first player to recover from a lost season ravaged by injuries. It would be easy to blame an injured shoulder for sapping his power and expect a bounce-back year, if he could ever stay healthy.
There's no foolproof way of predicting health, especially on a Mets team where day-to-day ailments have an alarming habit of turning into significant absences. At 100 percent, d'Arnaud has the power and pitch-framing skills to shine as a top-10 catcher. Yet crouching behind the plate takes a toll on anyone, so time is running out to reach his potential.
Don't write him off just yet, but hope for a solid, relatively healthy second act rather than a full-fledged breakthrough.
Michael Floyd
5 of 10
How does someone so good at times disappear just as often?
Michael Floyd had his breakout campaign in 2013, when he compiled 1,041 receiving yards for the Arizona Cardinals. That second-year success had everyone seeing stars, but he has instead done nothing but tease fans during a maddeningly inconsistent career.
After opening 2014 with two 100-yard outings in September, he didn't hit triple digits again until closing the season with a 153-yard, two-touchdown performance. So he of course started 2015 with eight catches over five games, only to then score five times in four contests.
Having exceeded 100 yards five times in an eight-game window, he reopened the door for a huge breakout in Arizona's high-powered offense. He has instead floundered for the disappointing Cardinals, recording 26 receptions for 379 yards over 10 quiet games.
Adding two more goose eggs this year, he has ended five bouts without a catch through the last three seasons. Barring an exceptional finish, the upcoming free agent has severely damaged his market value.
Will the Wait End?
Floyd may undergo a change of scenery next year, but it's tough to imagine a better spot for him than in Bruce Arians' vertical-heavy aerial attack. While his target shares would increase on a team with less receiving depth, he has not shown the ability to shine as a possession receiver anyway.
At first, 2013 looked like the beginning of a promising career. Three years later, it appears he peaked early.
Eric Gordon
6 of 10
Eric Gordon was once the centerpiece of a trade for Chris Paul. Seriously.
The then-New Orleans Hornets, owned by the NBA, received a far better package (Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and Goran Dragic) in a three-team trade involving the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers, who would have received the star point guard. Commissioner David Stern, however, vetoed the deal, and the Hornets instead sent him to the Los Angeles Clippers for Gordon, Chris Kaman and Al-Farouq Aminu.
Fantasy league commissioners, take note: This is why you never veto a trade unless collusion is suspected.
Assuming he wasn't nefariously trying to make both L.A. franchises relevant, why would Stern prefer the Clippers' offer? Gordon had averaged a career-high 22.3 points per game the previous season. In five seasons since the trade, he averaged 15.3 points per game for New Orleans and never played more than 64 games in a season.
The shooting guard, who turns 28 on Christmas Day, will look to revitalize his once promising career with the Houston Rockets. If there was ever a place for him to turn a corner, it's Houston. Despite already attempting a ridiculous 104 three-pointers over 14 games, he is still averaging a tame 15.4 points per contest.
Will the Wait End?
Only Stephen Curry and James Harden have made more threes early in the 2016-17 campaign, but Gordon is now a role player on Harden's team. For his career longevity, that's a good thing.
He'll never justify the Paul trade, but he can contribute for a playoff contender. In a perfect world, he enjoys a late shooting burst a la J.J. Redick and turns into an important piece for Houston.
Robin Lehner
7 of 10
A second-round pick in 2009, Robin Lehner spent five years as a reserve for the Ottawa Senators before finally getting a crack at the spotlight. In the Buffalo Sabres' season opener last year, the new starting goalie cruelly suffered a high-ankle sprain that sidelined him until January.
When healthy, he notched a 92.4 save percentage through 21 games. Another ankle injury, however, ended his abbreviated 2015-16 season in late March. Now he's once again out to prove himself as an NHL starter.
Early into the new season, the 25-year-old has allowed 2.49 goals per game and won five games out of the 14 he's started for Buffalo. Meanwhile, understudy Anders Nilsson has relinquished nine goals in five contests.
The Sabres, who haven't reached the postseason since 2011, snapped a five-game losing streak Monday night. Time is running out for Lehner to stabilize their net protection and make his years of waiting worthwhile.
Will the Wait End?
Lehner has held his own in a limited sample size. He looks far better in Buffalo than during his final two seasons in Ottawa, when he coughed up over three goals per game.
Staying healthy and productive is a good first step, but he has yet to consistently brandish the upside of a difference-making goalie for a struggling franchise.
Michael Pineda
8 of 10
In 175.1 innings, Michael Pineda tallied 207 strikeouts and 53 walks. Per FanGraphs, his strikeout-minus-walks percentage ranked No. 7 behind an elite group of aces (Jose Fernandez, Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander, Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale).
Based on this information alone, one would say he enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2016. Yet despite those stellar strikeout and walk numbers—two key pillars to a pitcher's success since they're outcomes that are directly in his control—he relinquished a 4.82 ERA.
Although dominant at times, he allowed five or more runs in 11 of his 32 starts. Pineda served up 27 home runs and far too frequently unraveled at the slightest stench of trouble. According to Baseball-Reference.com, opponents hit .344/.510/.631 against the New York Yankees righty when ahead of the count.
Pineda immediately flaunted ace upside when registering 173 strikeouts and a 1.10 WHIP during 171 rookie innings, but he finished 2011 with a 3.74 ERA higher than one would expect when seeing his ancillary stats. Before he could expand on a promising debut, he missed all of 2012 and 2013 recovering from a torn labrum in his right shoulder.
A healthy Pineda has especially struggled to keep the ball from sailing over Yankee Stadium's short fences, and he continues to surrender over a hit per inning despite also inducing whiffs on a regular basis. It's an odd combination but one increasingly harder to write off as a fluke.
Will the Wait End?
If he continues to miss bats at a superb level, Pineda should net an ERA far lower than 4.82 in 2017. Yet his inconsistencies will likely hamper the 27-year-old from reaching his true upside as an All-Star starter.
His best bet is for the Yankees to trade him to a National League team that plays in a more pitching-friendly locale.
Ricky Rubio
9 of 10
Fortunately for Ricky Rubio, the Minnesota Timberwolves passed on Stephen Curry twice during the 2009 NBA draft. Even though the Spanish point guard hasn't quite met the lofty hype, at least he's still in the league—unlike Johnny Flynn.
Admired for his off-the-charts court vision and IQ, he was expected to purchase permanent highlight-reel real estate with his crisp passing. While his flashiness caused easy comparisons to fellow floor generals Steve Nash and Jose Calderon, he displayed far greater defensive ferociousness. Entering the Association, he was a semi-decent shot away from becoming the next Jason Kidd.
Early in his sixth season, Rubio's shooting makes Kidd look like Nash. Last year, Baseball Prospectus' Aaron Gleeman identified him as the worst shooter in 50 years.
If he could finish at the rim or occasionally hit a wide-open jumper, Rubio would at least follow the Rajon Rondo path to recognition. Instead, he has skeptics wondering whether the young Wolves would be better off without him.
While making a brutal 30.2 percent of his field-goal attempts, his 7.3 assists and 1.1 steals also represent career worsts by a wide margin. If he's not dishing and picking pockets at an elite rate, he's not helping.
Will the Wait End?
Although he's only 26, Rubio has made no progress on his atrocious shooting. There's no reason to expect improvement, and a complete shooting liability can no longer operate at a high level.
As long as he gives somebody else the basketball, he's a delight to watch. He's just not a star.
Ryan Tannehill
10 of 10
Ryan Tannehill has gradually improved enough to cement his spot as a solid NFL starting quarterback. Yet he has never ascended to the heights Miami Dolphins fans and bullish pundits anticipated.
The fifth-year passer has posted a 62.4 completion percentage, 85.9 quarterback rating and 6.97 yards per pass attempt over his career. Although his 228.9 passing yards per game, 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season are all underwhelming, his 65.9 completion percentage and 7.66 yards per attempt currently represent career highs.
Miami hasn't made the playoffs since he arrived in 2012, but the team is three victories away from its first winning season on his watch.
Yet it still doesn't feel like enough, as 18 qualified starters wield a higher quarterback rating than his 91.1. Early this month, ESPN.com's Bill Barnwell broke down the Tannehill conundrum:
"He might be the poster child for the disappointing quarterback of the modern era: a mobile QB with arm strength who struggles to turn those tools into consistent above-average play. He's the guy who, after being drafted eighth in 2012, started too soon and never lived up to the hype—but he still managed to get a four-year, $77 million extension from Miami in 2015. Even Dolphins fans would argue that he's frustrating, right?
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Barnwell also noted that Tannehill's production would have made him an elite passer 30 years ago. His career quarterback rating isn't far off from Dolphins legend Dan Marino's 86.4. Perhaps this is a matter of unfair expectations, as a handful of despondent teams wouldn't mind having the 28-year-old under center.
Will the Wait End?
For those still holding out hope for a 4,500-yard, 35-touchdown campaign, that's probably not in the cards. The perennial fantasy sleeper will likely remain a competent mid-tier option.
Unless DeVante Parker emerges into a potent deep threat and Tannehill improves his downfield accuracy, he's best repackaged as a younger Alex Smith stuck with a worse supporting cast.
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