Michael Chandler vs. Benson Henderson: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Benson Henderson was one of Bellator's biggest signings to date when he inked in early 2016, but his showings inside the cage have not lived up to expectations just yet.
Henderson debuted in a welterweight title tilt, losing to Andrey Koreshkov in a clean sweep—50-45 across the board.
He returned to lightweight for a title eliminator against Patricio Freire. It was a fight he would win, but because Pitbull was injured. It was a lackluster result. Nonetheless, it was a result that put Henderson in a position to challenge for Michael Chandler's championship.
The Bellator 165 main event is all about Henderson proving he is still one of the best lightweights in the world. Can he close out 2016 by wearing gold?
Chandler has plans to crush the former UFC lightweight champion to show he's one of the world's best. Which man walks out of San Jose, California? You'll find out Saturday, but you can find out who has the edge from head-to-toe right now.
Striking
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Chandler brings in some pop with his punches, but the edge will have to go to the former UFC lightweight king.
It's all about Henderson's diversity.
Henderson loves attacking with oblique kicks, low kicks, combinations and more. He is tactical in his approach. A look at his FightMetric numbers in the UFC shows how competitive he has been against better strikers and bigger men.
Chandler's compact frame allows him to deliver vicious knockout power, but getting in close to hit Henderson will be difficult.
The full arsenal of Henderson gives him the edge.
Edge: Henderson
Grappling
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Henderson is no slouch in the grappling department, but it's clear this is where Chandler has an edge.
Chandler is a former NCAA All-American who has transferred his wrestling into MMA very well. He is quick and powerful in his takedowns, which will help against Henderson's flexibility should he want to put him on his back.
Chandler's strength will also aid him in the clinch—specifically against the fence. Henderson's takedown defense will not allow for an easy path to the mat for Chandler. As such, there will be battles against the cage. Chandler's positioning can help him quite well.
It's not a runaway category by any stretch, but it is one where Chandler gets the nod.
Edge: Chandler
Submissions
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If the fight does hit the turf, Chandler has to be mindful of Henderson's jiu-jitsu.
Chandler has an excellent grip if he gets ahold of Henderson's neck, but Henderson is one of the most difficult men to choke out. Other than the basic, routine chokes, Chandler does not offer much in the way of threatening submissions.
Henderson does.
Henderson's active on the mat. His long limbs give him opportunities for a variety of different submissions. He can end the fight with a submission or merely use an offensive guard to stymie Chandler's potential ground-and-pound.
There are more options for Henderson with his submissions. He easily takes the point here.
Edge: Henderson
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X-Factors
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Chandler's X-Factor: Patience
Chandler has went the distance twice in his career in five-round fights, and both times he came up on the losing end of split decisions (Eddie Alvarez and Will Brooks). He also went deep into a fight in his rematch with Brooks, but he was finished in the fourth round.
Henderson has a better gas tank than both of those men. Fighting at a high pace looking to gas him out will not work. It'll have the opposite effect.
Chandler needs to be patient to reserve energy for the later rounds. If he doesn't, Henderson will breeze to the title.
Henderson's X-Factor: Recapturing His Past Form
Henderson moved up to 170 last year in the UFC and looked good. He mauled Brandon Thatch and defeated Jorge Masvidal. He was a small welterweight, but his performances were solid.
2016 and Bellator has not provided the same optimism about his future. He has not looked like Henderson. He has looked like a shell of himself.
What does he have left and can he recapture what made him the best lightweight in the world?
Prediction
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This is possibly the best fight of the entire weekend and it's going head-to-head with the UFC.
Chandler's power and ability to outwrestle Henderson means this is no pushover for Henderson. Chandler is a legitimate elite lightweight. Just because he doesn't have the UFC initials by his name doesn't mean he's not a great fighter.
Even still, I'm going to side with Henderson.
It feels like I'm going out on a limb given his recent showings, but he is still a well-rounded fighter with great cardio. It's in the cardio where I think Henderson beats Chandler.
Henderson's striking and length will be able to stop Chandler from being effective with his wrestling, and Henderson will keep a good pace throughout the fight. Chandler won't be able to match it. Chandler may grab an early round or two, but he'll get none of the final three.
There won't be a finish, but Henderson recaptures some past glory and nabs Bellator gold for himself.
Prediction: Henderson by unanimous decision
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