Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 2: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The 100th UFC Fight Night takes place in Sao Paulo, Brazil Saturday with a light heavyweight showcase.
No. 4-ranked contender Ryan Bader (22-5) takes on No. 9-ranked Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (22-7) in a rematch from September 2010.
The two originally met at UFC 119, where Bader picked up a decision victory to move to 12-0 at the time. A lot has changed for both men, and the division, since that day six years ago. Nogueira has fought only six times, going 3-3, while Bader has gone 9-5 after the victory.
Bader has been closer to a title shot than Nogueira, but neither man has yet to step foot in a UFC title bout. A loss would be detrimental to that goal.
Who comes out on top Saturday? Here is your preview into UFC Fight Night 100's main event.
Striking
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When the two met in 2010, Nogueira was the definitively better striker. Bader still got in punches, but he was a developing striker.
In 2016, Bader should have the advantage on the feet.
Nogueira is still a good boxer with a good left hand, but Bader has a reputable MMA boxing game now. Perhaps more importantly, the physical deterioration of Nogueira will give Bader a clear-cut speed advantage.
Neither man has an iron chin to withstand big strikes, so it could be a matter of who lands first. If that's the case, all signs point to the American.
Bader is quicker and more powerful and has made up a lot of technical ground on Nogueira. The scale tips decidedly in the American's favor.
Edge: Bader
Grappling
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Put another check mark in Bader's column.
The former Arizona State wrestler is clearly the better grappler.
Their 2010 meeting saw Bader score five takedowns on 16 attempts, per FightMetric. That's not a great success rate, but he was able to get one in each round. Bader was relentless in his takedown game, and now with an improved striking skill set, he should be more dangerous with his level changes.
Nogueira has decent takedown defense but nothing spectacular. He makes up ground in this category with his jiu-jitsu. He can stifle some of Bader's attacks with his guard.
It won't do much for Nogueira to win the fight, but it could keep him from getting finished with brutal ground-and-pound.
Edge: Bader
Submissions
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If there is one area where Nogueira will almost always get an edge, it is with his submission game.
Nogueira has not finished with a submission inside the Octagon, and his last submission victory came in 2009. Regardless, he is always a danger on the canvas.
Bader has to be especially careful if he chooses to wrestle. Nogueira has a good guillotine.
There are silver linings for Bader. His top game already stymied Nogueira's ground game in their prior meeting, and the Brazilian isn't an explosive athlete. If a submission happens from Nogueira, it will either be a choke or a methodically setup submission. Both are possibilities but exist on the lower end of the probability spectrum.
Nonetheless, it's a bright spot for Lil' Nog.
Edge: Nogueira
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X-Factors
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Bader's X-Factor: Avoiding the Left Hand
Nogueira is an excellent submission fighter, but his biggest chance for a win is with a straight left hand. If Bader can take that away, then he should run away with the bout.
The Brazilian does not have much of a chance of taking Bader to the mat, and the American has plenty in his striking arsenal to score with. This should be a fairly simple fight for the former The Ultimate Fighter.
Nogueira's X-Factor: Making Bader Think
This plays into Bader's X-factor: Nogueira has to get Bader to think about other offensive tactics other than the left hand.
Nogueira needs to be active with leg kicks and even takedown attempts. He will need Bader to react so that his hands drop, exposing his chin. Nogueira cannot just go in looking to box. That's a one-way ticket to a loss.
He likely won't be successful with takedowns, but showing he's willing to engage in close will force Bader to at least prepare to defend. Using that reaction to land the left may be key.
Prediction
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A lot has changed since 2010, but the result of this fight shouldn't.
Nogueira is a shell of his former self. Bader has improved, and there are very few outs for Nogueira.
Bader's improved striking is the biggest factor in this fight. He'll stand and exchange with Nogueira. And he'll land.
The power in his hands will be the difference, as Bader will hurt and finish Nogueira. If the fight goes 25 minutes, it probably won't be exciting. Bader should end it much sooner than that with a vicious right hand.
Nogueira just can't compete at this level anymore. Bader proves that Saturday.
Prediction: Bader defeats Nogueira by TKO in the second round.
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