Kovalev vs. Ward: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Saturday's Fight
And now, here's one for the fight fans.
After an endless series of matches designed to advance a particular promoter's fighter or brazenly reach for the public's pay-per-view wallet, the competitive tides have turned.
Sergey Kovalev and Andre Ward—both unbeaten and arguably in the primes of their careers—will meet Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena to vie for the big Russian's three light heavyweight belts as well as a legitimate claim to be the planet's best all-around fighter.
Kovalev has been assembling pieces of the 175-pound puzzle for better than three years since dispatching then-WBO champion Nathan Cleverly, while Ward is making his first grab for gold in a new division after cleaning out the ranks seven pounds south at super middleweight.
The co-starring PPV role is the second in two years for Kovalev, who battered Bernard Hopkins for nearly every moment of 12 rounds with the same three titles on the line in 2014.
Ward, meanwhile, is making his first business trip to Las Vegas after building a 30-fight reputation in the less-than-glaring spotlights of California, Tennessee, Florida, Oregon, Connecticut and New Jersey—not to mention Saint Lucia and the Cayman Islands.
He's dipped his toe into the light heavyweight water twice, outpointing no-hopers Sullivan Barrera and Alexander Brand over 12 rounds in March and August of this year while sweeping three of six scorecards and dropping no more than two rounds on any of the others.
And, admirably, he seems to agree that the fight is a competitive toss-up, too.
Per BoxingScene.com, Ward said at a recent open workout:
"I feel that this fight with Kovalev is 50-50. That’s how I approach all of my big fights. I don’t go into the fight thinking, 'I've got a clear-cut advantage here' or 'I've got to run through this guy.' Personally, for me, I can’t roll like that. I've got to keep myself honest, stay on my grind, keep my head down and force myself to keep working. I truly believe Kovalev is everything they say he is, and I'm everything that I've shown over the years.
"
Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 2016
Time: HBO PPV starts at 9 p.m. ET
Venue: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Odds: Kovalev (+135), Ward (-153)
Odds provided by Odds Shark and are correct as of Monday at 7 p.m. ET; subject to change.
Rounds 1-3: Navigating a Rough Patch
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Many people thought Bernard Hopkins, even in his late 40s, would be able to take Sergey Kovalev into deep competitive waters when they fought in 2014.
Then the first round happened.
Hopkins was dumped to the mat with the first significant right hand Kovalev threw and was never able to mount anything close to a prolonged rally against a bigger, stronger fighter who had far more subtle skill than nearly anyone had anticipated.
Come Saturday night, Andre Ward will be facing the same behemoth with the same toolbox.
And in order to do more than simply survive 12 rounds, a la Hopkins, he's going to need to break from the gate with far more offense.
Given that he's fighting a man unaccustomed to taking shots from a burly light heavyweight, Kovalev is likely to press the fight and try to rough his man up from the start. Ward, on the contrary, will be forced to use his superior movement and hand speed to get through unscathed and begin to build an advantage on the scorecards.
Score After 3 Rounds: 29-28 Ward
Rounds 4-6: Winning Ugly
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If Ward is both vertical and competitive after three rounds, he will have passed a test many of Kovalev's previous title-fight opponents have not.
Nathan Cleverly was dumped twice in the third and didn't survive the fourth, while Ismayl Sillakh, Blake Caparello and Nadjib Mohammedi were back in the locker room before nine ring minutes had elapsed.
And though Hopkins and Cedric Agnew lasted 12 and seven rounds, respectively, both were floored in the early going and never provided much of a threat.
Ward, presumably, will be different.
He's long been considered one of the sport's top ring generals and is usually able to either avoid or smother his opposition's biggest shots.
That said, he's never faced a fighter who punches as hard as Kovalev, so at some point he'll feel the power and have to get through in order to have a chance.
Score After 6 Rounds: 58-56 Ward
Rounds 7-9: The Russian Bears Down
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The third quarter of the fight, if it arrives, will be a pivotal one for Kovalev.
Assuming Ward is competitive rather than simply holding on through six, it'll be incumbent on the champion to step up the offensive attack to keep matters from getting out of hand on the scorecards.
Kovalev's trainer, John David Jackson, contends that his man will land the sort of power shots that Ward will feel and cause an adverse impact.
"It's rare," Jackson told BoxingScene.com's Keith Idec. "I’ve had a few guys who've had it. Randall Bailey had one-punch knockout power. Sergey has that. It’s a rare commodity to have for a fighter. He's blessed with that power. If you look at him, he doesn’t look like a big, muscular guy. But when he hits you, you say, 'Man, this guy can punch.'"
Ward was dropped while winning a six-round decision over Darnell Boone in his seventh professional fight in 2005.
Boone, who holds a KO win over WBC light heavyweight champ Adonis Stevenson, lost a split decision to Kovalev in 2010 and was stopped in two rounds in a 2012 rematch.
"(Ward) got hit by smaller guys," Jackson said. "Here’s what I always say about that—if you hit a guy with the right shot, you can hurt him. That was at (lower weights)."
Score After 9 Rounds: 86-85 Ward
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Rounds 10-12: Surging Down the Stretch
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The oddsmakers say Ward is a favorite, albeit a slight one, to beat Kovalev.
Nevertheless, the sight of a fighter still in possession of his senses and still with a shot to win will be a novelty when it comes to the three-belt incumbent.
Only Hopkins (in 2014) and Isaac Chilemba (in July) have gone the 12-round distance with the champion, and neither man was remotely close to a win down the stretch.
Hopkins lost all 12 rounds on all three cards and barely survived the last round, while Chilemba was dropped once and won just nine of a possible 36 rounds across three scorecards.
Simply getting through 27 minutes with a path to victory will indicate that Ward's move-a-little, smother-a-little M.O. has been successful, and given his long history of 12-round fights—he's 9-0 at the championship distance—there's no reason to believe he'll reach the final nine minutes with a sudden fade.
Kovalev, meanwhile, has been past eight rounds just twice in his career—in the aforementioned defeats of Hopkins and Chilemba—and never in something resembling a 50/50 fight.
Given those track records, when it comes to the homestretch it's advantage Ward.
Score After 12 Rounds: 115-113 Ward
Final Wrap
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Gentlemen, start your pound-for-pound adjustments.
Not long after a prolonged stretch of injuries and promotional hangups relegated him to the bargain racks, Ward, as the new light heavyweight champion, will surely rocket to the top of expert ranking lists.
And after a competitive back-and-forth 12-rounder, he won't be lacking for options.
The folks from Team Kovalev will presumably throw their hat in the ring for a rematch after a close and possibly disputed loss, while Ward's people at Roc Nation might also get a call from Stevenson—whose own reign at 175 had been overshadowed by Kovalev's ferocity and willingness to take all comers.
And who knows? Maybe the long talked-about match with another Eastern Bloc KO machine—middleweight monster Gennady Golovkin—will gain some new traction with a Ward win.
No matter which path he chooses, it's a heavenly moment for the Son of God.
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