Kovalev vs. Ward Undercard: Preview and Prediction for Chilemba vs. Gvozdyk
Sergey Kovalev and Andre Ward will fight Saturday night in Las Vegas for light heavyweight supremacy and top pound-for-pound billing. But the undercard features an important contenders bout for the 175-pound division.
Oleksandr Gvozdyk of the Ukraine is 11-0 with 9 KOs. Isaac Chilemba is a light heavyweight mainstay who took Kovalev the distance last July.
Chilemba has already come up short when challenging for a world title. He won't want to drop further down the rankings by losing to the rising Gvozdyk.
But for the Ukrainian, an impressive win could put him in line for one of next year's biggest fights.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Isaac Chilemba | Oleksandr Gvozdyk |
| Record: | 24-4-2, 10 KOs | 11-0, 9 KOs |
| Height: | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Reach: | 73" | 75.5" |
| Weight: | 175 lbs | 175 lbs |
| Age: | 29 | 29 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Johannesburg, South Africa | Oxnard, California |
| Rounds: | 234 | 43 |
Chilemba and Gvozdyk are the same age but due to Gvozdyk's extended amateur career, Chilemba is far more experienced at the professional level. Height is even here, but Gvozdyk enjoys an advantage in reach of over two inches.
While he makes his home base in California now, Gvozdyk is a native of the Ukraine.
Main Storylines
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The light heavyweight title fight between Sergey Kovalev and Andre Ward Saturday night will be the biggest bout of 2016. But this undercard clash between Isaac Chilemba and Oleksandr Gvozdyk highlights just how deep this division is right now.
Gvozdyk looks like he could ultimately be a fair match for the winner of Kovalev vs. Ward. He won Olympic bronze for his native Ukraine in 2012. Since turning professional, he has been a wrecking machine, knocking out all but two of his 11 opponents.
He has't been padding that KO percentage with no-names, either. Last April, he recorded what might be the best knockout of 2016, when he put away former title challenger Nadjib Mohammedi with a beautiful straight right in Round 2. He stopped contender Tommy Karpency in six last July.
Chilemba represents his toughest challenge to date. The rugged and awkward South African has been in the ring with some of the division's best. He should show Gvozdyk wrinkles the Ukrainian has never seen in either a professional or amateur ring.
Strengths
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Isaac Chilemba fights in a difficult rhythm. He is very clever about controlling distance and taking away his opponent's space to punch or shifting to a good angle for his own attack.
He is a rugged guy with a solid chin. Aside from Bernard Hopkins, he is the only man to go the distance with Sergey Kovalev during the past five years. That required stiff whiskers and the physical strength to deal with the powerful Russian on the inside.
Oleksandr Gvozdyk has very good length for his division and uses a jab and footwork to maximize that advantage. He does a great job of keeping opponents in range for his powerful straight right.
He relies a lot on quick, straight punches, but does good work with hooks to both sides of his opponent's torso. He has made a nice transition from amateur standout to professional boxer-puncher.
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Weaknesses
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Isaac Chilemba has a knockout percentage of just over 33 percent. His lack of power makes it more difficult for him to compete in the hard-hitting light heavyweight division, particularly with his physical style.
Oleksandr Gvozdyk has a bad habit of throwing a lead hook to the body while remaining in a fully upright position. His hand speed and power have let him get away with it so far, but I will not be surprised to see him get drilled over the top with a counter at some point.
Isaac Chilemba Will Win If...
5 of 7The keys to victory for Isaac Chilemba in this fight are to maintain a busy punch rate and control the range. He wants to pump a double jab to Oleksandr Gvozdyk's body and head, trying to prevent Gvozdyk from establishing his own lead left hand.
Chilemba's loss to Sergey Kovalev earlier this year was not exactly close. But I still think his best bet against Gvozdyk is to fight a similar style. He wants to take away the angles for the Ukrainian's straight punches and get close enough to smother him if necessary.
Chilemba is a strong fighter. He wants to try to get inside on the longer Gvozdyk so he can muscle him around and position him for flurries that target the body and head. He wants to make this a rough, confusing fight for his less-experienced opponent.
Oleksandr Gvozdyk Will Win If...
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Oleksandr Gvozdyk should fight his typical fight here and expect the best. He has been cruising against relatively tough competition. Isaac Chilemba will be the best he has faced so far, but he is someone he should beat if Gvozdyk is truly a world-championship-caliber fighter.
Gvozdyk needs to establish his jab and use it to keep Chilemba in position for the straight right. Gvozdyk's right is a dangerous punch with fight-ending potential.
The Ukrainian needs to go to Chilemba's body, but he has to be careful about dropping a hand while standing up straight. A crafty veteran like Chilemba will see that opening and drop a big, looping punch over the top.
Gvozdyk needs to be prepared to deal with a hard, physical clinch during this fight. He has to be careful to not allow the more experienced Chilemba to use those kind of in-close skirmishes as an opportunity to set him up.
Prediction
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This will be a significant test for Oleksandr Gvozdyk, but he should be ready for it. He has a well-rounded offensive approach and uses his footwork well defensively.
I can see Isaac Chilemba giving him some trouble for a few rounds, but without truly dangerous power, there are limits to what Chilemba will be able to do to capitalize on the momentary advantages he is able to force.
Gvozdyk, on the other hand, does have dangerous power. After he adjusts to Chilemba's rhythm, expect to see him land heavy shots in the middle rounds. He will have Chilemba hurt by Round 6 and will finish him by Round 9.
This is a very exciting time in the light heavyweight division. Gvozdyk should leave Saturday night in line for an eventual title shot.
While he waits, there are some outstanding contenders I would not mind seeing him matched against. His countryman, Vyacheslav Shabranskyy, is another impressive rising talent at 175 pounds. So is former Russian Olympian Artur Beterbiev.
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