Race to Dubai 2016 Standings: Rankings, Predictions After Nedbank Golf Challenge

The 2016 European Tour is braced for a tense finish after Alex Noren won the 2016 Nedbank Golf Challenge in Sun City, South Africa, on Sunday and jumped to third in the Race to Dubai standings.

The Swede trails Masters champion Danny Willett by a little more than 300,000 points as things stand, while incumbent leader Henrik Stenson sits another 300,000 points in front leading into the final tournament of the year.

A climactic ending is on the cards as golf's elite prepare for the season-ending DP World Tour Championship in Dubai this Thursday, where a massive prize of 1,217,174 points is on offer to the player who can claim first place.

Fourth-placed Rory McIlroy is the fourth and final player in with a chance of winning the Race to Dubai, but he'll need Stenson and others to fall short in a big way if he's to make up the 1,176,414 points separating him from the top spot.

Read on for a breakdown of the Race to Dubai's current top 10 coming into the last competition of the 2016 European Tour, complete with predictions of who will emerge triumphant when the dust has settled:

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With one week to go...#RacetoDubai pic.twitter.com/mAdH0678Ou

— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) November 13, 2016"

McIlroy Lurking Out of Reach?

And then there were four.

Although 60 of the world's top players will travel to Dubai for the final tournament of this year's European Tour, only the aforementioned quartet will have a chance at the top prize on offer.

Of those four, McIlroy sits the furthest from the front after missing some key events of late, namely the Turkish Airlines Open in early November, after which he agreed the Race to Dubai might evade his grasp, per the Golf Paper:

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I guess it’s out of my hands. I took the decision not to go to Turkey next week and those boys can battle it out.

If I have somewhat of a chance going into Dubai, that’s great. But if not, I think over the course of the season they have had big wins and played well.

They are two major champions, so I’m okay with that.

"

According to the official European Tour website, for the Northern Irishman to take a fourth Race to Dubai crown, he would have to win at Jumeirah Golf Estates next weekend, while Stenson would need to finish outside the top 45, Willett outside the top five and Noren anywhere but in the top two.

McIlroy has won two DP World Tour Championship titles in the last four years (2012, 2015), but the criteria required for a Race to Dubai overall victory this time around may be too vast to hope for the win.

Stenson Steers to Dubai Silverware

Stuart Franklin/Getty Images

The stage looks set for 2013 Race to Dubai champion Stenson to clinch his second such title, especially considering he's taken first place in the DP World Tour Championship as many times as McIlroy (twice).

The Swede holds the competition's course record at Jumeirah after he finished on 25-under par in 2013, six strokes clear of his nearest rival, and he displayed some top form in Sun City this weekend:

Although Stenson ultimately finished eighth in the Nedbank Golf Challenge on Sunday, the defending Open champion remained in good spirits with tournament organiser Gary Player:

One of Europe's in-form power players has cause for redemption in Dubai, too, after he recorded a score of three-over-par to finish last in the 2015 competition, where it was McIlroy who took his trophy.

Stenson has won three European Tour events this year—one fewer than compatriot Noren, but more than Willett and McIlroy—and he looks ready to cap off a terrific 2016 with one very lucrative hurrah at the Earth Course.