Kovalev vs. Ward: Expert Picks for the Main Event
If you’re a fan, it’s time to sit back and enjoy.
Because when Sergey Kovalev and Andre Ward get together this weekend in Las Vegas, it’ll mark one of the rare times on the 2016 boxing calendar where the hyperbole matches the product.
Kovalev’s IBF, WBA and WBO light heavyweight belts will be on the line at the T-Mobile Arena, not to mention his and Ward’s respective standings as the No. 2 and No. 4 fighters in the world on Ring Magazine’s most recent pound-for-pound list.
The two men are unbeaten with five sanctioning-body titles and 45 knockouts across 61 career fights, with the only blemish coming via an accidental-foul-induced technical draw—Kovalev in two rounds against Grover Young—five years ago at the Playboy Mansion in Beverly Hills, California.
Saturday’s most compelling questions will revolve around whether Ward’s comprehensive skill set—among the sport’s most impressive at any weight—will be enough to offset the brute strength and physicality of Kovalev, who has gone past eight rounds just twice in nine title fights at 175.
Bleacher Report has gathered its community of boxing writers to render judgement. Have some thoughts of your own? Let us hear them in the comments.
Who Wins the Fight? When and How?
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Lyle Fitzsimmons: I like Ward by a narrow decision, though I’ll concede it’s not a verdict I’d bet my house on. Kovalev is a monster and probably far underrated given an array of subtle talents that tend to get lost amid the punching-power hype.
But I think Ward is better. He’s faster, sound defensively and can do more things offensively than anyone Kovalev has fought. He also shouldn’t be spooked by the big stage given his own big-fight experience at super middleweight.
Kelsey McCarson: This is truly a difficult pick for me. I could see either fighter winning, so I love this pay-per-view overall; this super fight is truly, well, super. As much as I want to pick Ward, I think Kovalev will pull it out on points.
I don't see a lot that separates these two guys, but Kovalev is underrated as a boxer just as much as Ward is as a rough inside fighter. Kovalev will score harder blows, though, and win on points.
Kevin McRae: This is the definition of a 50-50 fight that could go either way. It’s a special matchup in that it will require each fighter to bring the very best of their skill set to the ring, and, even if they do, the other guy could still be better.
Kovalev by close decision was my pick when the fight was announced, and I remain 51 percent confident in that today. His strength and power will be the difference in a highly competitive fight.
Briggs Seekins: My best guess is that Ward will win this fight by unanimous decision in the closest match of his career. I can see a lot of ways that Kovalev manages to land the right punches to put Ward away, but if forced to pick, I have to go with the man I think is the better boxer.
I think Ward will do a very good job at controlling the distance and taking away Kovalev's room to punch. Ward will manage to work his way out of clinches in very good positions to put together scoring combinations. Kovalev will land some decent punches and win some rounds based upon effective aggression, but Ward will win the majority.
Jonathan Snowden: Boxing fans often equate action for excellence. And there's something to valiant warriors like Arturo Gatti and Micky Ward planting their feet and sacrificing their bodies to prove which is the better man.
Kovalev and Ward are not those fighters. The tension here will fill the moments between the action. This is a thinking man's fight, and I happen to think this fight will go the distance. In the end, Ward's recent inactivity will prove his undoing. He hasn't fought someone like Kovalev in years. That will be obvious when the final bell rings. Kovalev wins via unanimous decision.
The Moment We’ll Remember Most Is…
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Fitzsimmons: There have been a lot of “super” fights lately, but too many were either spectacles to advance a particular fighter or matches that would have been far better at different weights or different times. This one is great because it’s two great fighters at the peak of their skills at precisely the right moment. That’s worth remembering.
McCarson: The moment we think, "Oh! This is what a big fight is supposed to look like!" Last year's Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Manny Pacquiao bout was bunk. This one won't be and will be worth every single penny.
McRae: Somewhere in this fight, it’s bound to happen; Kovalev is going to crack Ward with something big and check his chin in a way we’ve never seen before. That punch will either put Ward in a bad way or it’ll show us he has a serious set of whiskers. If it’s the latter, Kovalev could be in for a long night.
Seekins: I think Kovalev will start to really press the action in the championship rounds, leading to some of the most exciting moments of the fight. When the bell rings to start Round 12, the crowd will be roaring and the mood will be electric, as everybody watching stands up to see if Kovalev can close the distance or if Ward will hold him off.
Snowden: Truly great fights between athletes at the top of their games are rarely found in the wild. Promoters and fighters have to work hard to make them happen. Just seeing these two men take to the center of the ring to hear the referee's instructions will be a thrill. We'll know then that we're about to embark on a special journey.
Will This Be the Fight of the Year?
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Fitzsimmons: Best matchup of the year? Probably. Best action fight of the year? Probably not. Ward’s best opportunity at victory lies in him being able to blunt Kovalev’s firepower. If it turns into a battle of arsenals worthy of Gatti-Ward, he’s not likely to win. In his case, boring is better.
McCarson: This is the biggest fight of the year, and I think it will be excellent—but it won't win Fight of the Year. These guys are too skilled for that to happen, and while both will land blows, it won't be a slugfest which is typically what gets the nods for FOTY awards.
McRae: Absolutely not. It’s a high-level matchup and the most significant fight of the year, for sure, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into the best action in the ring. It could wind up being a tense chess match for the full 12 rounds, and that’s just fine by us.
Seekins: It is tough to predict something like that. For boxing fans, it will be a very satisfying fight. This is going to be a high-level chess match. Ward cannot win without letting his hands get busy in spots. For casual fans who want Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots, this is not going to be that kind of fight. But for serious fans, the building tension between the action should have us hanging on the edge of our seats.
Snowden: This is the most important fight, athletically, not just of this year, but arguably of the decade. But it won't be a thrill ride. These are careful, professional fighters, the kind unlikely to provide the kind of wild slugfest that usually wins year-end awards.
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Who Will Kovalev Fight Next? When and Where?
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Fitzsimmons: Given my call of a 115-113 Ward victory, it’s my hunch that Kovalev’s biggest objective would be to get his conqueror back in the ring as soon as able. If he gets his way, go ahead and pencil the two of them in for next spring—same venue, same network.
McCarson: Rematch! I think the fight will be closely contested enough that fans will scream for a rematch. With Kovalev out of options at light heavyweight with HBO fighters, Ward will make the most sense, and we'll get an immediate redo in the spring.
McRae: Assuming that he wins the fight, Kovalev will be the undisputed light heavyweight champion in these eyes. Adonis Stevenson and his lineal title will be completely irrelevant in the face of the Krusher’s wins over Jean Pascal, Bernard Hopkins and Ward. Hopefully that spurs Adonis to fight him in the spring for all the marbles in Montreal.
Seekins: I think this fight will be close enough—and good enough—to justify a rematch. If I'm looking into a crystal ball, I expect to see the two of them fight again over the summer of 2017, in Las Vegas.
But for whoever wins this fight, Stevenson is going to be a possibility. If that fight happens, it should happen in Montreal, a great fight city. Another great fight for Kovalev down the road would be Artur Beterbiev, his former rival from the Russian amateur system.
Snowden: This is kind of a problem here. Assuming Kovalev wins, which I am, where can you possibly go next that won't feel a bit disappointing. Andre Ward is his white whale. Who knows what's next? This is the one that matters.
Who Will Ward Fight Next? When and Where?
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Fitzsimmons: As the winner, Ward will not be lacking options. He’ll likely have a choice of Kovalev again, perhaps Adonis Stevenson, a mandatory from one of the three sanctioning bodies, or maybe even renewed interest from a guy like Gennady Golovkin. Stevenson or GGG would certainly be fun, but we’ll stick with the company line and assume it’ll be Kovalev II.
McCarson: Ward will do enough in the fight to make many, if not the majority of fans, believe he won. The rematch will be a bout that he comes in more prepared for Kovalev's boxing's ability, and he will likely solve the riddle and win the fight.
McRae: Ward is such an enigma. It’s hard to tell what he’ll do and when he’ll do it. It wouldn’t be a shock to not see him fight again, win or lose here, but if you force my hand I’d say a rematch with Kovalev makes the most sense. Of course, that assumes whoever loses Saturday does so competitively. It’ll happen in Oakland (if Ward wins) and Las Vegas (if it’s Kovalev).
Seekins: As I already said, I think Ward will win, but that the big-money fight going forward will be a rematch with Kovalev. But Stevenson could be a big fight, too, especially in Montreal.
Aside from a rematch with Kovalev or a unification fight with Stevenson, there are a bunch of very good fighters at 175 waiting for a shot at a star like Ward. Marcus Browne, the 2012 Olympian, is looking for a big step-up fight.
Snowden: If he can keep the fight close, there will be calls to run it back. And you know what? Ward probably deserves that courtesy. He's one of the very best fighters of his generation. If he falls short against Kovalev, a rematch makes sense. We'll see it in the spring of 2017 if this fight makes dollars.
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