PGA Tour 2016-17: Who Are the Favorites to Win Next Year's Majors?

Ben Alberstadt@benalberstadtFeatured ColumnistNovember 2, 2016

PGA Tour 2016-17: Who Are the Favorites to Win Next Year's Majors?

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    Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images

    In predicting who will win a PGA Tour event, the formula is generally a cocktail of pedigree, course history, key stats, recent form. And depending on who the bartender is, the ratios of the mixture are different.

    Regardless, some five months from the Masters, most oddsmakers weigh pedigree extremely heavily, with a nod toward tournament history and core statistical realities that ought to remain constant (Adam Scott is an awful putter, for example). 

    The top-ranked golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking presently, not surprisingly, are the leaders of the pack in future odds for the four major championships. 

    Those golfers are:

    1. Jason Day
    2. Rory McIlroy
    3. Dustin Johnson
    4. Henrik Stenson
    5. Jordan Spieth

    To delve deeper into each of the four major championships and who's best suited to hoist a trophy(or don a green jacket), read on as we take a look at the range of future odds (per Odds Checker) from a bevy of sportsbooks.

The Masters

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    Scott Halleran/Getty Images

    Course: Augusta National 

       

    Favorites

    Jordan Spieth (6-1 to 8-1) 

    Rory McIlroy (7-1 to 9-1)

    Jason Day (7-1 to 8-1) 

    Bubba Watson (14-1 to 20-1) 

    Adam Scott (16-1 to 25-1)

        

    Analysis

    The only major championship that's held at the same venue every year, Augusta National preferences experience (particularly local knowledge on and around the greens) and the ability to hit the ball long and high above all else.

    Not surprisingly, pedigreed past Masters winners and a pair of experienced, long-bombing major winners top the list of early favorites.

U.S. Open

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    David Cannon/Getty Images

    Course: Erin Hills

        

    Favorites

    Jason Day (7-1 to 8-1)

    Rory McIlroy (15-2 to 8-1)

    Jordan Spieth (7-1 to 11-1)

    Dustin Johnson (7-1 to 12-1)

    Justin Rose (20-1 to 25-1) 

    Analysis

    The U.S. Open hasn't been contested at Erin Hills before, so no past performances at the venue can be factored in.

    Not surprisingly, the oddsmakers weight pedigree heavily. Also not surprisingly, given the importance of putting at the U.S. Open and his past status as winner, Jordan Spieth gets some love and Henrik Stenson (the No. 4 golfer in the OWGR), who struggles with the putter, isn't among the top five candidates.

The Open Championship

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    Matthew Lewis/Getty Images

    Course: Royal Birkdale

        

    Favorites

    Dustin Johnson (7-1 to 19-2)

    Rory McIlroy (7-1 to 10-1)

    Jason Day (8-1 to 10-1)

    Henrik Stenson (16-1 to 20-1)

    Adam Scott (22-1 to 28-1) 

        

    Analysis

    It's surprising that last year's Open champion and the golfer who finished tied for third at Royal Birkdale in 2008, Henrik Stenson, isn't favored more highly. Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy's past performances at the venues on the Open rota earn them better billing than Jason Day.

    Greens are generally slower and less difficult to master at the Open Championship than the other majors, which earns Adam Scott a bit of consideration.

PGA Championship

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    Julio Cortez/Associated Press

    Course: Quail Hollow Club 

        

    Favorites 

    Rory McIlroy (13-2 to 10-1)

    Jason Day (8-1 to 10-1)

    Dustin Johnson (8-1 to 10-1)

    Henrik Stenson (16-1 to 22-1)

    Rickie Fowler (25-1 to 33-1) 

        

    Analysis

    Quail Hollow is the host of the Wells Fargo Championship. Rory McIlroy has won the Wells Fargo Championship twice. He's also a past winner at PGA of America setups. Ergo, Rory is the top dog.

    Pedigree, past performance at the Wells Fargo and other PGA Championship venues account for the positioning of the remainder of the top four.