How the 2016 Heisman Trophy Will Be Won (and Lost) in November
Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson led game-winning drives late in the fourth quarter. Jabrill Peppers scored his fourth touchdown of the season. And while Jake Browning didn't play his best game, his team passed its toughest test yet.
All four players were impressive Saturday and subsequently praised by their supporters as having built on their Heisman Trophy resumes. Florida State running back Dalvin Cook and Texas running back D'Onta Foreman also created a lot of buzz but still have some work to do before being considered strong contenders.
With five weeks until balloting is completed, during the last of which most conferences hold their league championship game, the Heisman race is hitting the final stages. There's an old saying about the award that the last month is when it's decided—even during the years in which a player stands out beforehand.
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Statistically, Jackson is clearly out in front.
Yet a lot can change with one game, never mind four or five. The bigger the stakes, the more voters pay attention.
We were reminded of that a year ago when Leonard Fournette had a huge lead entering November. Specifically, having played only seven games (LSU's opener against McNeese State was canceled because of inclement weather), he still led the nation in rushing yards (1,352) and yards from scrimmage (1,410) and was second in rushing touchdowns (15).
The talented running back had his team undefeated and on target for a spot in the College Football Playoff. At the time, Bovada (via SEC Country) listed him as a 2-5 favorite ahead of TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin (15-2) and Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott (9-1).
None of them wound up being a finalist. Eventual winner Derrick Henry was 11-1 at the time, tied with third-place finisher Watson and just ahead of runner-up Christian McCaffrey, who was 18-1.
Similarly, as this national title chase continues to unfold, so will the Heisman's.
Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
Jackson has passed for 2,522 yards to go with 998 rushing yards. His passer efficiency rating of 159.6 is 11th in the nation, and he's seventh in rushing.
Only 22 teams have more offensive touchdowns than Jackson's 38 (22 passing, 16 rushing). Among those that don't are Clemson (37), Ole Miss (36) and Auburn (34).
On Saturday, Jackson was 24-for-41 for 361 yards and four touchdowns with one interception. He led the 75-yard drive that ended with his 29-yard touchdown pass to Jaylen Smith with 13 seconds to go, making for a 32-25 final score.
However, he did it against Virginia, which fell to 2-6. This was the second time in October that Louisville struggled as a 30-plus-point favorite—the other being against Duke.
The Cardinals' remaining schedule: at Boston College (4-4), vs. Wake Forest (5-3), at Houston (7-2) and vs. Kentucky (5-3). These teams aren't overly impressive, but Louisville could stumble.
Unless the Cardinals can get into the ACC Championship Game—which seems unlikely, as Clemson would have to lose twice since it owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Louisville—Jackson won't be playing that final weekend, when most Heisman voters will cast their ballots.
He could overcome that, but another loss would cause voters to look around.
What Jackson needs to close the deal is a signature win like the Cardinals' victory over Florida State on Sept. 17—only he may not have another shot at one.
Clemson QB Deshaun Watson
Watson has an advantage in two significant areas: reputation, after helping lead Clemson to the College Football Playoff title game last season, and big wins. One of those was over Jackson's team. The Tigers' 19-13 win in their opener at Auburn is beginning to look pretty good, as well.
Watson has 2,328 passing yards, but thanks to 10 interceptions, he is 36th nationally in passing efficiency (145.9). He has the same number of touchdown passes as Jackson (22) but nowhere near the rushing numbers (331 yards, one touchdown).
During Saturday's 37-34 victory at Florida State, where Clemson won for the first time in 10 years, Watson was 27-of-43 for 378 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. He also had 52 rushing yards and accounted for the game-winning points with a 34-yard touchdown pass to Jordan Leggett.
It was the Tigers' fifth win by seven points or fewer this season, which is something that works both for and against Watson. The perception is that Clemson has underachieved but still found ways to win.
For Watson to have a shot at the Heisman, the Tigers have to impressively run the table (vs. Syracuse, vs. Pitt, at Wake Forest and vs. South Carolina), and he has to especially stand out in the ACC Championship Game—when Jackson is stuck sitting at home.
Washington QB Jake Browning
Overall, Browning's 1,895 passing yards rank 43rd in the nation, but he has 28 touchdown passes compared to just three interceptions. His passer efficiency rating (195.6), which is the statistic the NCAA uses to name its annual passing champion, is a close second to that of Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield (195.9).
Browning's four rushing touchdowns give him 32 total.
He threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns with one interception at No. 17 Utah on Saturday and also had a pooch punt that pinned the Utes at their own 1-yard line.
""Go win the Heisman"... #UWvsUTAH https://t.co/suaTEZ7Jid
— Spark Sports (@Spark_Sports_) October 29, 2016"
Washington will be in the spotlight a lot in November, as it plays at Cal, vs. USC, vs. Arizona State and at Washington State, which is also undefeated in Pac-12 play. If the Huskies can run the table and win the Pac-12 title game, Browning should be headed to New York as a Heisman finalist.
Michigan LB/S Jabrill Peppers
His numbers are good, but you have to wonder if they're Heisman-type numbers.
Defensively, Peppers has 48 tackles, including 12 for a loss and 3.5 sacks, five hurries, a forced fumble and a two-point conversion return. On special teams, he has 15 punt returns for 257 yards (17.1 average) and one touchdown and six kick returns for 168 yards (28.0).
Peppers has plenty of highlights to impress voters, and his four total touchdowns are as many as Charles Woodson scored in 1997, when he became the only defensive player to win the award.
Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh has played Peppers on offense to attract attention, but the majority of his 131 rushing yards came during a 78-0 rout of Rutgers. Additionally, Peppers doesn't lead his team in all-purpose yards or tackles and doesn't have an interception.
Also working against him is the Wolverines' schedule. Though Colorado is making a run in the Pac-12 and Penn State has improved, Michigan has still faced only one ranked opponent at the time they played—a 14-7 home victory over Wisconsin on Oct. 1.
Michigan finishes up vs. Maryland, at Iowa, vs. Indiana and at Ohio State. It has to win out and dominate the Big Ten Championship Game for Peppers to have a shot.
Alabama DL Jonathan Allen
Jonathan Allen is a reach because of his position, but it's clear he's the best player on the best team.
With touchdowns on fumble returns against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, he already has his signature moments—in addition to what's being called his "Superman" sack, in which he leapt over a blocking running back to hit Aggies quarterback Trevor Knight.
"Just jumped over the dude and started flying," teammate Reuben Foster said. "It was crazy."
To become a finalist, Allen will have to keep making similar plays. His individual numbers aren't flashy (35 tackles, including 6.5 for a loss and six sacks, and 10 quarterback hurries), but Alabama leads the nation in sacks (32), rushing defense (70.1 yards per game) and defensive touchdowns (nine).
Michigan leads the country in total and scoring defense, but the Crimson Tide have played a much tougher schedule and visit LSU this weekend.
That's the matchup that derailed Fournette last year.
Perhaps Jackson will hold on, just as Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota did during the final month in 2013 and 2014.
But they were still both in the running for the national championship, while Louisville is, for now, on the outside looking in. Unless that status somehow changes, it will weigh on voters if Jackson doesn't end the discussion before championship weekend.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Stats courtesy CFBStats.com and odds courtesy Odds Shark unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.
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