Making the Case for Big Papi, Megatron and G-Hill: First-Ballot HOF or Not?
Fans love to debate whether an athlete is worthy of being immortalized as one of the greatest to ever play in that sport, but there is always anger or disappointment when a recognized supernova is not inducted into the Hall of Fame on the first year of eligibility. That’s why the question of whether David Ortiz, Grant Hill and Calvin Johnson are first-ballot Hall of Famers will likely engender a lot of intense back-and-forth between proponents and opponents of their candidacy, and isn’t that what makes sports so much fun?
The criteria for selecting these particular athletes was they each fall within the five-year waiting period, they each have strong pros and cons for induction and they each represent one of the major sports in America: baseball, basketball and football.
It’s important to remember this isn’t a debate about whether each of these three sports stars belongs in the Hall of Fame. This debate centers on whether each candidate’s career was so superlative he should not be kept waiting years for that induction.
So without further ado, here are the candidates, the pluses and minuses of their candidacy and a final verdict that projects their first-ballot probabilities.
David Ortiz: Reasons in Favor of First-Ballot Hall of Fame Induction
1 of 9If this were a court of law, a smart attorney representing Ortiz’s first-ballot Hall of Fame candidacy in 2021 would simply say: “Your Honor, may I present Big Papi’s postseason stats?”
In 85 playoff games, Ortiz had 61 RBI, 88 hits, 17 home runs and a .947 OPS.
But it’s not just the numbers; it’s the big games in which Ortiz repeatedly rose to the occasion.
Ortiz had 11 RBI and three home runs in the 2004 ALDS in which the Boston Red Sox became the first team in MLB history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, and defeated the hated New York Yankees to earn a trip to the World Series.
His home runs in Game 1 and Game 2 of the 2013 World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals set the stage for a 4-2 series win, and Ortiz was named MVP.
But he was also potent in the regular season.
In 2006, he broke the Red Sox record for home runs in a single season by hitting 54 round-trippers. Of those 54 home runs, 47 came when Ortiz was playing as the designated hitter, which also set an MLB record.
In 2009, he was named to the Sporting News’ all-decade team, a squad that included first-ballot Hall of Fame pitcher Randy Johnson and future first-ballot Hall of Fame relief pitcher Mariano Rivera.
Big Papi retired with a batting average of .286, 2,472 hits, 541 home runs and 1,768 RBI. He was a 10-time All-Star, won the American League home run title in 2006 and three times led the American League in RBI.
Mike Axisa of CBSsports.com projected Ortiz as a first-ballot Hall of Fame inductee, citing his numbers and especially the magnitude of his Red Sox legacy and how it impacted baseball history.
David Ortiz: Reasons Against First-Ballot Hall of Fame Induction
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He’s a DH.
Designated hitters don’t get the same respect as full-time players, no matter what numbers they put up.
And the bigger elephant in the room is the 2009 New York Times expose, which revealed Ortiz was one of a handful of players who had failed a 2003 drug test that was administered to determine whether the league would make drug testing mandatory. The random test was intended to be anonymous, but it was leaked.
Working in Ortiz’s favor, however, is the fact that several of the supplements that were legal back in 2003 contained a steroid that could have resulted in a positive test.
Ortiz has always maintained his innocence, blaming the failed test on a supplement, though he didn’t know which one.
In analyzing Big Papi’s first-ballot chances, Jay Jaffe of SI.com used a combination of metrics and real stats and determined it would be dicey.
Jaffe referenced the steroid cloud and the fact Frank Thomas’ first-ballot induction in 2014 was the first time ever that a player who spent more than half his time at DH was elected to the Hall of Fame.
Also working against Ortiz is the case of Edgar Martinez, a DH with a lifetime .312 batting average, .418 on-base percentage and .515 slugging percentage. That exceeds Ortiz in every category except for slugging percentage, and Martinez was also a seven-time AL All-Star, two-time AL batting champion and five-time winner of the Silver Slugger Award.
And yet in the 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame vote, he only managed 43 percent, well short of the 75 percent threshold.
David Ortiz: Final Verdict for First-Ballot Hall of Fame Induction
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It’s a tough one, and yes, the Martinez comp is hard to dismiss, but as great as Martinez was, he never won a World Series and he was never the primary reason his team was in contention for the playoffs.
Big Papi also gets love for the way he came up huge in the biggest moments, and don’t discount how much goodwill he earned when he stood tall after the Boston Marathon bombings and uttered the most memorable expletive in Red Sox history.
As far as the steroid allegations, even MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said there was enough reasonable doubt regarding Ortiz’s failed 2003 test that he felt it would be unfair for Hall of Fame voters to factor in that result when deciding on Ortiz’s candidacy.
This is a tough one, and very close, but on the strength of his big-game performances, the records he set as a DH and the leadership he displayed as a Red Sox player and ambassador of baseball, Ortiz is first-ballot worthy.
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Grant Hill: Reasons in Favor of Hall Induction
4 of 9Hill, who is up for election in 2018 with a group that includes Jason Kidd and Tracy McGrady, was drafted in 1994 by the Detroit Pistons, was a Swiss Army knife who could play and guard three positions.
He was polished and confident and came from the best college basketball stock in recent history: Duke University.
For his career, Hill averaged 16.7 points, six rebounds and 4.1 assists per game and shot 48 percent from the field. His best year came in the 1999-00 NBA season in which he averaged 25.8 points, six rebounds and five assists.
He was NBA Rookie of the Year in 1995, made the All-NBA 1st Team in 1997, earned All-NBA 2nd Team honors four times and was in the top 10 of MVP voting five times. Hill also posted seven seasons averaging 19 or more points per game and was a seven-time NBA All-Star who played on the gold-winning U.S. men’s team at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics.
Yes, he lost a huge chunk of his career to several serious injuries that robbed him of his athleticism, but here’s the thing: In Hill’s first six seasons in the NBA, only Larry Bird, LeBron James and Oscar Robertson had a better scoring, rebound and assist stat line.
Bird and Robertson were obvious first-ballot entrants, and even the worst James haters recognize his first-ballot credentials were stamped several years ago.
And remember this is not the “NBA Hall of Fame,” it’s the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, which means there’s a lower threshold for Hill to be voted in on the first ballot. It also means voters can count his sterling college career in which he won two NCAA titles, and that will definitely boost his chances.
In an ESPN piece judging Hill’s candidacy, four of the five writers who were asked said Hill would get in, though none talked specifically about his first-ballot odds.
Grant Hill: Reasons Against Hall of Fame Induction
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No MVPs.
Never got to an NBA Finals.
Never maxed out his potential because of injuries.
Never led the league in scoring or assists and, with the possible exception of the 1999-00 season, was never considered one of the five best players in the NBA.
His legacy is that of a supremely talented player who couldn’t stay healthy, similar in many respects to Tracy McGrady, whose candidacy will also be the subject of intense debate.
You can’t put Hill in on the first ballot based solely on seven good seasons and an outstanding college career.
Ethan Sherwood Strauss of ESPN.com agreed with this assessment and wrote Hill’s balky ankles were the main reason he didn’t maximize his talent to deserve inclusion in the Hall of Fame, much less on the first ballot.
Grant Hill: Final Verdict
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Did you know Hill is on the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame’s Board of Governors and that he’s part of the new ownership group that recently bought the Atlanta Hawks?
That certainly won’t hurt his overall candidacy, but it probably won’t be enough for him to get in on the first ballot.
He doesn’t have the international impact that swept Yao Ming in on the first ballot, and he is likely to split votes with former teammate Tracy McGrady and lose votes to Jason Kidd, who seems like more of a lock for induction on the first ballot.
Hill’s career was plagued with too many “what ifs” due to injuries. He will get into the Hall of Fame, but it won’t be on the first ballot.
Calvin Johnson: Reasons in Favor of Hall Induction
7 of 9This one will get heated as Johnson’s election time nears in 2021, and rightfully so.
Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports was one of the first to lob a grenade, asserting the man known as Megatron was a sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Schwab wrote Johnson’s talent and performance ranked him ahead of luminaries such as Marvin Harrison, Cris Carter and Terrell Owens and put him neck-and-neck with Randy Moss.
The thing you’ll hear most against Johnson’s first-ballot chances is he only played nine years and had zero playoff wins. But in those nine years, Megatron still posted an 86.1 receiving-yards-per-game average, highest of any receiver in NFL history who has played at least 100 games, which of course includes Jerry Rice, greatest of all time.
In 135 games, he caught 731 passes for 11,619 yards and 83 touchdowns, good enough for an average of 15.9 yards per catch. He caught passes of 40 or more yards an astonishing 41 times and only missed nine games in nine seasons, showcasing his durability despite the pounding he took every game.
At 6’5” and 237 pounds, Johnson was a freak of nature, able to catch balls at the highest point above a defender’s head.
Though he lacked track speed, his long strides and physical playing style earned him multiple yards after contact.
Johnson was named to six Pro Bowls, earned four First-Team All-Pro honors, twice led the NFL in receiving yards, led the NFL in receiving touchdowns in 2008 and set the NFL record for most receiving yards in a season, with 1,964 yards in 2012. Overall, he holds seven NFL receiving records by himself and shares two more records with three others.
By any standard, this is the resume of a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Calvin Johnson: Reasons Against Hall of Fame Induction
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Johnson never won a playoff game in nine seasons.
Say what you will about the quality of his quarterbacks, but if Megatron was worthy of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer, he would have found a way to put the Lions over the top at least once in his career.
And ESPN.com’s John Clayton dismissed Johnson’s first-ballot chances when he wrote voters will view Johnson’s career as incomplete and receivers with better stats such as Henry Ellard and Torry Holt didn’t earn enough votes to become finalists in 2016.
Props to Johnson for choosing long-term health over padding his stats, but that decision cost him thousands of yards, multiple touchdowns and a potential playoff victory that would have cemented his case.
Calvin Johnson: Final Verdict
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It ain’t happening.
Not on the first ballot, anyway.
No doubt, Megatron earned his name.
He was a beast, the LeBron James of wide receivers, big, strong and impossible to cover, but ultimately, the lack of playoff wins hurts, and voters don’t forgive such failures.
The overall impression one gets of Johnson’s career is that of a supernova who burned bright and fast, but far too briefly for consideration as one of the 10 greatest wide receivers in NFL history.
And that’s what a player has to be for first-ballot induction, and if Terrell Owens, who has better stats and a Super Bowl appearance, was kept waiting, Johnson has no chance.
Megatron will get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, just not in his first year of eligibility. Meanwhile, he’s already found a way to put his fancy footwork to good use.
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