NASCAR at Talladega 2016: Preview and Prediction for the Alabama 500
Chase drivers begrudgingly sent their RSVPs to the Talladega Party some time ago. When they received their save the date, they figured they’d better get a move on to win a race before that carnival of horrors.
The Alabama 500 at Talladega Superspeedway hosts its third elimination race of the new Chase playoffs. Two years ago, Brad Keselowski—a four-time Talladega winner—won this race to advance. Last year, Joey Logano completed the Contender Round sweep, nosing out Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Now the only drivers who are safe are Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick, winners of the first two races of this Round of 12.
Restrictor plates in the Chase are like wet blankets: They dampen everyone’s mood. The draft and the inevitable Big One can make someone running 20th with one lap to go finish in the top five. Is this how you want your playoffs decided?
It’s the hand all these drivers have been dealt, so let’s preview and predict the least predictable race in the entire Chase.
Chase Grid and Round of Eight Bubble
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1. Jimmie Johnson, winner
2. Kevin Harvick, winner
3. Matt Kenseth, +29
4. Kyle Busch, +27
5. Carl Edwards, +24
6. Kurt Busch, +17
7. Martin Truex Jr., +13
8. Joey Logano, +0
9. Austin Dillon, -0
10. Denny Hamlin, -6
11. Brad Keselowski, -7
12. Chase Elliott, -25
Friction Among Teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing?
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Kyle Busch was visibly and audibly frustrated with Carl Edwards after Kansas. The pair battled for second place, which allowed Harvick to drive away with the race.
We constantly hear how “every position is a point,” almost to the point of exhaustion.
But in this case, it was actually four since the pair rank second and third in points—fourth and fifth on the Chase Grid. Right now, Busch has a three-point lead over Edwards in the standings.
Had Edwards given up the track position to Busch, Edwards would have lost a point and Busch would have gained one. Had Edwards let Busch pass and challenge Harvick—assuming Busch would finish second and Edwards third—the result would be a five-point deficit heading to Talladega.
Busch fell off to finish fifth. Couple that with Edwards’ bonus point for leading a lap and finishing second, Edwards picked up four full points on Busch.
Every little point will matter heading to Talladega, but maybe this little spar between Edwards and Busch goes back to the spring when Edwards bumped Busch to win at Richmond.
Or perhaps neither wanted to see Harvick advance to the next round. Maybe Busch figured he had the best chance at making Harvick sweat it out at Talladega.
Either way, should Busch and Edwards avoid disaster at Talledega, both should advance to the Round of Eight where the bonds of being teammates will be strained even more.
Is Kevin Harvick the Favorite Now?
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Harvick loves himself a good corner—being backed into a corner or against a wall, something to do with the odds against him.
Yet despite this, he and his band of merry men find a way to win when they need it. He did it at Loudon and he did it again at Kansas.
Per FoxSports.com’s Larry McReynolds, “And as much as we think that once you get them in a hole, they’re not going to get out, they continue to prove, yes they will get out. It’s almost like this situation that they were in motivates them. We’ve seen it for 2 ½ years now. Nobody probably does it better than they do.”
Looking ahead to the Round of Eight, where the elimination race is at Kevin Harvick Phoenix International Raceway, who can stop him?
He’s won six of the past eight races at Phoenix, but he doesn’t want to wait until that day to win.
Two weeks ago, we were talking about how unbeatable Martin Truex Jr. was. Now Harvick and to some extent Johnson feel the same. Maybe after the Alabama 500 we’ll be saying Keselowski looks primed and ready.
As great as these top drivers are, the tracks are the great equalizers.
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Can Brad Keselowski Pull Out Another Talladega Triumph?
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Keselowski is one of the rare birds that probably circles the two Talladega dates on his calendar with the glee reserved for a child circling their birthday and Christmas.
The interminable bounty these two days hold for each party can’t be overlooked. And his racing at Kansas put him in the unfavorable position of essentially needing to win a track too tough to game.
“I could have probably raced a little bit less hard, you know I had a big points gap coming in here,” Keselowski said after his Kansan crash, per Jim Utter of Motorsport.com. “With this format, that is probably the smart thing to do. ... But I don’t want to race like that. I want to race for wins. I don’t want to points-race, I don’t care what the damn format is.”
Despite the relative air of desperation hanging over the No. 2 team, it sits just seven points back of the cutline. The problem for Team Penske is that cutline happens to be Logano right now.
But if Truex, 17 points to the good, has his usual and near forecastable bout of bad luck, Kez could slide right up into the top eight.
Then again, Kez said he wants to race for wins and what better track than his best? He did it in 2014. He'll need to do it again in 2016.
Dark-Horse Pick: Austin Dillon
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Driving that No. 3 Dale Earnhardt Sr. car at Talladega for this up-and-coming driver seems like too good a pairing to pass up.
But let’s look at the numbers.
Dillon is tied with Logano for the eighth and final spot of this round. He rebounded well after his debacle at Charlotte to finish sixth at Kansas.
“I’m proud of my guys,” Dillon told NBC after the race. “They brought me a really good race car. ... Go to Talladega, have a good run and we don’t have anything to worry about. We just have to have a good run there.”
In six races at Talladega, he has one top-10 finish. That top-10 happened to be a top-five. A measured approach to Talladega could advance him. It could also grant him his first career win.
And the Winner Is...Brad Keselowski
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Is there anybody better at leading a plate race right now than Kez?
He knows a thing or two about blocking each line entering and exiting the corners.
Even with Busch on his tail at Talladega and Daytona this year, Kez managed to hold him off.
Now Bad Brad is in a must-win situation at his best track, the one track most other drivers are terrified of. He can let it rip.
He will lead the most laps. The key will be if he can lead that last one.
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