Division II Week Six: Polls Versus Rankings
With the Division II football season officially past its half way points, the weekly AFCA poll isn't the only number in which fans take stock. After week six, the NCAA releases its first Regional Rankings—the real numbers that matter.
The NCAA's Regional Rankings are the numbers used for playoff seedings come November. What irks many fans is the seeming lack of common sense these numbers display. A closer look, however, reveals a little more.
While there is a statistical formula used to determine which team is ranked where (unlike much-maligned older brother, the BCS), many fans have a hard time grasping just what these numbers mean.
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“How can the No. 1 team in the nation, Grand Valley, be ranked No. 2 in their own region?” “How does 4-2 Saginaw Valley get ranked No. 6, while 4-1 Northern Michigan who just beat them on the road not get ranked at all?” All valid questions. The simple answer is that there is no simple answer. It is, in fact, very complex.
It sounds so cliché, but in Division II, it really is very true: It will all be decided on the field. The NCAA actually does a disservice to fans by releasing a Regional Ranking so early in the season. While Grand Valley State is the No. 1 team in the AFCA Poll, they also were the top ranked preseason team in the poll, and by virtue of a 6-0 record, retain that spot.
They did, however, open the season against then-No. 11 West Texas A&M, who proceeded to go 1-5 to start the year. So, unfortunately for fans of the Lakers, the dreaded “Strength-of-Schedule” took a big hit. WTAMU definitely did not live up to its pre-season No. 11 hype, as they were out of the polls entirely withing a couple of weeks.
Take heart, Laker faithful, as the meat of Grand Valley State's schedule remains ahead with games against the aforementioned Northern Michigan Wildcats, as well as tilts against Findlay and Wayne State (MI)—both currently appearing in the Regional Rankings.
Victories against these teams will certainly boost Grand Valley State's stock with the NCAA number-crunchers.
But what about poor Northern Michigan? They just beat then-No. 16 Saginaw Valley State in Saginaw to improve to 4-1, while Saginaw Valley State dropped to 4-2. Why should Northern Michigan be left out in the cold? While it is unquestionably cold in Marquette, Michigan (where NMU is located), the locale has little to do with the chilly ranking of NMU.
Northern Michigan's lone loss was to Northwood (MI), a team showing up at No. 9 in the region with a 3-2 record. But more telling is NMU's list of victories. Against teams with winning records, NMU is 1-1. Besides Saginaw Valley State, NMU has tallied wins against 0-6 Tiffin, 1-5 Ferris State, and 1-4 Michigan Tech.
This does not bode well for NMU's Strength-of-Schedule. Like Lakers fans, the Wildcat faithful should take heart. NMU's upcoming schedule will provide much-needed SOS points with games against Wayne State, Findlay, and Grand Valley State. Victories over teams with winning records will thaw even the frostiest nights on Lake Superior.
To be sure, Super Region Three is not the only region in which arguments can be made for a reworking of the rankings. In Super Region Four, unbeaten Texas A&M-Kingsville is ranked No. 6—the last spot which would earn a playoff berth—behind three other teams which have lost a game at this point in the season.
How can a team go unbeaten through half the season and still have a shot at moving up when they're behind teams who have already lost, and may not lose another game? Again, Strength-of-Schedule. Northwest Missouri State (5-1, No. 3 in the region) has completed the bulk of its tough games, with wins over Pittsburgh State, Nebraska-Omaha, Missouri Western State, and Southwest Baptist.
NWMSU's SOS will probably suffer to some degree with games upcoming versus Emporia State and Missouri Southern State. TAMUK, by comparison, has a potentially SOS-exploding game remaining against regional top team Abilene Christian. Should TAMUK march through the rest of their schedule unscathed, the yellow flags of Kingsville will be flying high come playoff time.
Perhaps the NCAA should consider not releasing a Regional Ranking until after week seven, or even week eight. When so many teams are only two or three games into their conference schedule, week six is far too early to be worrying about playoff positions.
Grand Valley State has to worry about a road contest against feisty Hillsdale, while TAMUK can't look past rival Texas A&M-Commerce. Let the rankings fall where they may: in five weeks time, the records will sort themselves out.
The Top 25 after Week Six
Grand Valley (24) 6-0
Abilene Christian 6-0
North Alabama (1) 6-0
Central Washington 6-0
Bloomsburg 6-0
Northwest Missouri 5-1
Minnesota St.-Mankato 6-0
Minnesota-Duluth 5-1
Texas A&M-Kingsville 6-0
Albany State 5-0
Charleston 6-0
Washburn 5-1
Edinboro 5-1
Wayne State (NE) 5-1
Tarleton State 5-1
Central Missouri 5-1
Missouri Western St. 5-1
Midwestern State 5-1
Wayne State (MI) 5-1
Ouachita Baptist 4-1
Nebraska-Kearney 5-1
Delta State 3-2
Angelo State 5-1
Tuskegee 4-2
UNC-Pembroke 5-1
Others receiving votes: Findlay, West Liberty, California (PA), Wingate, Saginaw Valley St., Carson-Newman, Northern Michigan, Shaw, Colorado School of Mines, Winona State, Catawba, Bentley, East Stroudsburg
(Full poll available at www.afca.com)
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