Worlds 2016: Expectations vs. Reality on the Road to the Semifinals
As the League of Legends World Championship packs up and leaves San Francisco, the knockout rounds begin in Chicago.
In looking at a team's eventual run to a tournament win, it's easy to gloss over the quarterfinals. Shaky group stage performances can be remedied in a team's first best-of-five series, and close quarterfinals matches can be shaken off in the semifinals.
But this is where the gauntlet begins, where the three-to-five hour-long marathon starts — in that chair, wearing those headsets, staring down (for some teams) the first threat to potential Worlds glory.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Samsung vs. Cloud9
NA’s last bastion of defense lies in Cloud9. And there’s probably not a better team to carry that weight.
Cloud9 is an interesting team at international competition. When the NA squad takes the stage, you never immediately believe collapse and domination is imminent. Of course, that’s not the case; SKT handedly proved that Cloud9 can be decimated. But when they enter the Rift, there’s a resolve and trust that seems to be lacking when fellow NA teams Team SoloMid or Counter Logic Gaming play.
Unfortunately for C9 though, just as they collected themselves enough to exit Group B with SKT, Samsung seems to have awaken at the right time. What’s more, they’re very clearly to the more dynamic of the bunch, right down to their choice of starting support. They’ve shown they can play methodical wins with Wraith. And they’ve shown they can explode to claim the fastest win at Worlds with Corejj. Ultimately, that could be the difference and something that Cloud9 might not know how to handle.
Against C9, Samsung will probably prefer the latter. The ability to be fluid in the early game will likely be enough for them to get to the mid and late-game team fights where the Korean team simply excels. C9, on the other hand, has shown they can certainly bully a team in the early game, but they tend to fall just as Samsung peaks resulting in
No matter what the final scoreline, this will easily be the most explosive and closest quarterfinal match of the tournament. Dynamism matters though in a tournament run, and so, Samsung likely ends NA’s dream in quarters.
Expectation: 3-2, Samsung
Reality: 3-1, Samsung
SKT vs. Royal Never Give Up
It wouldn’t be a Worlds with Faker and Uzi in attendance if they didn't meet at some point.
But unlike other meetings, Uzi’s performance figures more prominently in his chances to beat Faker and SKT. Luckily, with the God of Supports Mata by his side, Uzi is in a prime place to perform.
The best botlane at the tournament earns that title for simple reasons: they’re largely at the core of every RNG win. Uzi and Mata wreck havoc in the botlane and the rest of the team plays around that. And in RNG’s losses, the botlane is never directly to blame; a larger lack of macro knowledge leads to eventual disadvantages that become too big to overcome.
Playing around the botlane works, especially against inferior ones. Bang and Wolf are not that though. They’re not focused on winning lane, sure. But they don’t outright lose it either, which presents a problem for Uzi and Mata.
Among a lot of other things, SKT wins Worlds because they know how to identify their strengths and weaknesses over the course of a month-long tournament. They’re clinical in their wins because they know exactly where to place the scalpel, make the cut and excise a team’s win conditions all before minions spawn. With that in mind, it would be unquestionable — borderline absurd — to believe SKT doesn't have the targets set on RNG’s botlane.
In truth, it’s easier to look at this quarterfinal matchup as a battle of form. Not only have they come out groups as the most consistent team, RNG has been all over the place. Sure, the argument that their current unpredictable level of form could cause chaos for on the Rift is valid. But chaos doesn't tend to exist in the calculating and mechanical hands of SKT, especially if the clinical level of strangulation in group stages is any indication of what might happen in a best-of-five series.
Expectation: 3-0, SKT
Reality: 3-0, SKT
EDG vs. ROX Tigers
UPDATE: Wednesday, Oct. 12, at 4:40 p.m. ET
EDG announced substitute Koro1 will replace Mouse as the starting top laner stepped down due to a family emergency.
Out of the four quarterfinal matchups, the meeting of two tournament-favorites is probably the easiest to predict.
While neither team had an outright dominant group stage, it’s hard to see a future in which EDG advances out of this because of the top-lane mismatch.
Smeb — touted as the world’s best player by the general League community — had an okay group stage. Sure, he made quite possibly the best play of the tournament so far, but these insane plays and all-around dominance in the mid and late game was at the cost of shaky early games.
That won’t matter much at all though when facing EDG. The tournament narrative of Mouse is not a kind one. While EDG puts the top laner on an isle due to the team’s overall priority in working around the bot and mid lanes, Mouse also remains one of the tournament’s worst top laners. Yes, he does his job. Put him on a tank like he seemed to favor much of the group stage, and he will play his role to the team’s larger success. And he certainly cares. While the rest of EDG sat watching TSM’s do-or-die match vs. RNG in Group D, Mouse was pictured spamming solo queue to practice.
Top lane isn't the only battle in EDG’s way to the semifinals. Considering current form in group stages, Peanut looks to be operating on a completely different level than enemy jungler Clearlove. While inconsistent at times in lane, PraY has shown he can blow up and amass a huge lead in team fights and — most importantly — use it to carry the team to a win.
But the relative difference in skill in the top lane is enough to tip the entire matchup into a slightly off-his-game Smeb into a comfortable early game. EDG can certainly handle that pressure through solid drafts and advantages elsewhere across the map, but asking them to do it three times against ROX Tigers doesn’t seem likely.
Expectation: 3-1, ROX Tigers
Reality: 3-1, ROX Tigers
H2k vs. Albus Nox Luna
Every reason why ROX should be the favorite over EDG applies to H2k doubly.
But just indulge me for a second, okay? Albus Nox has at least earned that.
H2k went 4-0 on the final day of Group C off the back of lane domination, epitomized by Ryu's absolute destruction of the mid game.
Albus Nox succeeded through just pure and unrelenting desire to win. They would force aggressive plays against teams that severely outclassed the Russian squad. Moscow 5 jokes were made, but in all seriousness, elements of the arguably the best team to ever come out of Europe were definitely
It wasn't just teams not respecting their comfort picks in Anivia and Brand, either. In what will likely be remembered as the best Worlds group stage match of all time (making a case for flat-out best Worlds match ever) against heavy favorites ROX Tigers, Albus Nox proved they could play “standard” meta.
Albus Nox deserves their spot in the quarterfinals, but to prove they deserve to be in the conversation any further would mean shoring up some weaknesses. Smurf has shown a preference for top-lane tanks; looking lost when he was forced to play a top-lane carry like Kennen in a chance to take the first seed vs. G2 reinforces the potential problem. Though they beat ROX the second time around, they could've gone 2-0 over the Korean team had their ability to close out a game with early advantages been more consistent.
So it’s easy to see how this could be a utter stomp, how H2k could put a stop to the ‘best EU team’ memes. It's made even easier knowing Likkrit is dealing with chicken pox.
But somewhere between Likkrit’s motivational speeches and the way Albus Nox has changed the international conversation — with Western teams reconsidering what has become the expected pre-Worlds Korean bootcamp — maybe we keep believing Albus Nox can change Worlds.
Expectation: Albus Nox, 3-2
Reality: H2k, 3-0
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
