Power Ranking the NASCAR Drivers Remaining in the Chase for the Sprint Cup
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series has the tailwind of the Round of 16 behind it. Examining the field of remaining drivers for the Chase for the Sprint Cup, there is a clear line of demarcation between the eight who will advance and the four who won’t.
But before we get there, it bears mentioning that this round—unlike the other four—is unique in its challenges.
The first race in Charlotte is 500 miles under the lights in a complicated time of year where it’s warm during the day (qualifying/practice) and cold/cool at night (race time). The second race is Kansas—no real problem there.
But the looming specter of doom over the round is the eliminator itself: Talladega’s 500-mile restrictor-plate race.
The Round of 12 carries with it more nuance and entropy than any other.
With that in mind, let’s power rank the drivers based on a proprietary algorithm that factors how they did in the Round of 16 and how they performed at these tracks earlier in the season. So in many ways, it’s handicapping performance based on the upcoming tracks.
Twelve through No. 1. Let’s hit it.
12. Carl Edwards
1 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Sixth at Loudon
This Year at…
Charlotte: 18th
Kansas: 11th
Talladega: 34th
Prediction: The Toyota engines are far and away the best under this aero package. Toyota Racing Development has figured something out, and the Joe Gibbs Racing cars are benefiting mightily.
Carl Edwards told Rea White of Sporting News:
"I've been telling people this week I really believe you're going to see the other four JGR cars—the four JGR cars—really step it up because Martin is that—he's that rabbit out there that we're all chasing and we know it can be done and I think in the end that's a gift to have somebody in your camp or close to you that can do that.
"
But it appears Edwards may have peaked and hit a wall.
For all the poles he won this year (six), Edwards rarely carried that speed to Victory Lane. He did that only once, that being at Bristol in the eighth race of the season.
As for the Chase to date, he finished 15th, sixth and 14th. That won’t cut it in this round, especially with all remaining tracks that had his number in 2016.
11. Jimmie Johnson
2 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Seventh at Dover
This Year at…
Charlotte: Third
Kansas: 17th
Talladega: 22nd
Prediction: Jimmie Johnson’s run in the Chase will end in this round. His only saving grace is the race at Charlotte in which he finished a distant third to Martin Truex Jr.
Every other track schooled him, and what has this team done since Fontana to prove it can hold P1?
Two critical errors on pit road took him off the lead in the last round. Will that suddenly stop?
“A championship-caliber team can’t continue to make mistakes and think it can win a championship,” NBCSN’s Rick Allen said after the Dover race.
It’s true. Johnson's pedigree tells you to advance him, but the performance suggests otherwise.
The only argument—and it’s a legitimate one—is the miraculous discovery of speed in the Round of 16. He led 208 laps the entire round and should have won one or possibly two of the races.
10. Austin Dillon
3 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Eighth at Dover
This Year at…
Charlotte: 12th
Kansas: Sixth
Talladega: Third
Prediction: Despite strong finishes at these tracks, Austin Dillon still feels like a hard sell.
Maybe that has more to do with how he reached the Round of 12 in the first place. Were it not for Jamie McMurray’s engine failure and Kyle Larson’s battery/pit-road penalty at Dover, Dillon would have had his yellow paint stripped from his car.
But you can’t ignore those results.
After the Dover race, NBCSN's Dale Jarrett said of Dillon:
"This is a driver exceeding the race car. Now he goes to a couple of 1 ½-mile race tracks that are his bread and butter. He’s very capable of racing [well], and there’s nobody better at getting more out of a car without wrecking it.
"
If you add those finishes above and divide the sum by three you get this: seven.
Should Dillon drive back to those results, that could advance him to the next round.
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9. Joey Logano
4 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Second at Chicago
This Year at…
Charlotte: Ninth
Kansas: 38th
Talladega: 25th
Prediction: If we punch in last year’s dates in the time machine, you’ll notice that Logano didn’t just win one race in the Round of 12; he won all three.
This also included the famous spinout of Matt Kenseth at Kansas, which then led to the Kenseth’s revenge at Martinsville two weeks later.
Water under the bridge? Probably not, but Logano has shown over the years to be ruthless when it comes to winning.
Had he not been so ruthless at Kansas a year ago (when he already had his ticket punched), he may have been in better standing with Kenseth and then been in a position this year to contend for the Sprint Cup for a second straight year.
How do you weigh what Logano did last year with what he did this year? You must factor this year more based on the aero, and since he fared poorly at these tracks this year, it slides him down the list.
8. Denny Hamlin
5 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Sixth at Chicago
This Year at…
Charlotte: Fourth
Kansas: 37th
Talladega: 31st
Prediction: Denny Hamlin was a bit of an odd bird this year. It’s almost as if winning the Daytona 500 put this team on cruise control for the remainder of the year. Then there were all those pit-road penalties.
Yes, it came alive to win at Watkins-Glen, avenging that inexplicable wheel hop that gifted Tony Stewart a win at Sonoma.
Next, Hamlin won the final race of the regular season at Richmond, signifying that this team could be tightening up the screws to reach the Championship Four as it did in 2014.
His performance in the last round of the Chase was decent. Two top-10s easily advanced him.
Hamlin crashed at Kansas and didn’t show at Talladega. At this point, Hamlin is marginal to advance, based on this year’s performances.
The No. 11 team does get the nod because when it’s time to get serious, it manages to rise up. Now’s it's time.
7. Matt Kenseth
6 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Second at Loudon
This Year at…
Charlotte: Seventh
Kansas: Fourth
Talladega: 23rd
Prediction: Kenseth is tough to rank. He rarely has bouts of dominance, but he manages to be the fly around the horse’s rear end: He's always there.
He racked up three top-10s in the Round of 16, so that bodes well for the overall momentum of the No. 20 team and JGR.
And he’s performed reasonably well at these tracks this year. Kenseth will want to avenge his loss at Kansas in 2015. He felt Logano stole it from him. Kenseth paid Logano back and was then promptly suspended for his actions.
One thing’s certain: When we go to Kansas, all anybody will be talking about it is the incident between Logano and him.
6. Kurt Busch
7 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Fifth at Loudon
This Year at…
Charlotte: Sixth
Kansas: Third
Talladega: Eighth
Prediction: For a moment or two this year, Kurt Busch looked like the sleeper to win the Sprint Cup. Through the first half of the season, he was a top-10 factory, finally reaching Victory Lane at Pocono in Race 14.
That win culminated a streak of eight straight top-10s, which included the three you see above. He may have been quiet in the Round of 16, but he might come alive in this round, announcing himself as a title contender.
Busch said to Tim Durr of Fox Sports:
"We are not here just to advance through a round, we are here to do well and be a force towards the front. I like Charlotte and I like Kansas, so we will see how they play out. We need to gain points there because you can't go to Talladega expecting a good finish.
"
With 18 top-10s to date, expect Busch to contend for wins in this round, making people say, “Oh, yeah, I forgot about him.”
5. Chase Elliott
8 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Third at Chicago and Dover
This Year at…
Charlotte: Eighth
Kansas: Ninth
Talladega: Fifth
Prediction: The shining beacon of light for Hendrick Motorsports looks like he’s in his wheelhouse heading to these next three tracks.
Of the two poles Chase Elliott won this year, one came at Talladega (the other at Daytona in February). Elliott has lived up to the hype. Sure, he hasn’t won yet, but his poise is otherworldly.
Few drivers performed better than Elliott in the first round of the Chase. Elliott told the LA Times, per George Diaz’ story:
"I think this first round, to me, has been similar to races that we've seen throughout the year. I guess just kind of regularly. I don't think the intensity of a lot of the guys that have experience in this deal, I don't think it has been ramped up quite to the point that it will be depending upon if you make further in.
"
At some point, Elliott must get himself in position to win races. He hasn’t forged that killer instinct yet when he gets to the front. Perhaps, that’s trying to toe that fine line of being the new guy and not wanting to get into trouble versus what Logano’s capable of doing.
It’s hard to vote against Elliott in this round.
4. Kevin Harvick
9 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: First at Loudon
This Year at…
Charlotte: Second
Kansas: Second
Talladega: 15th
Prediction: The Round of 16 did not treat Kevin Harvick well. The win at Loudon treated him well enough, and it was a good thing he had it.
At Chicago, poor timing put him a lap down that he would never recover. Then his car broke at Dover.
But who can count out Harvick? He’s the only driver to reach the Championship Four both times and heads to a tracks where he rolls.
Add to that that he already won the pole for the Bank of America 500, so you know he’s ramping up.
Harvick said to NASCAR.com's Reid Spencer:
"It was good in (Turns) 1 and 2, but I felt like I gave up a little something in (Turns) 3 and 4 coming to the checkered. This has just been a fun car to drive today. Hopefully we can get it dialed in race trim.
"
3. Kyle Busch
10 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Second at Dover
This Year at…
Charlotte: 33rd
Kansas: First
Talladega: Second
Prediction: It’s about that time that Kyle Busch, the defending Sprint Cup champion, starts ramping up for his title defense.
He registered two top-threes in the Round of 16, and now he heads to tracks he loves. He won at Kansas and got stuck behind Brad Keselowski for the first of two times at plate tracks this year.
Despite his success, he won’t be taking anything for granted. After the race at Loudon, Busch told Joe Menzer of Fox Sports, “We've seen anything happen in this business, so I don't like it very much at all—but it's certainly better than having a one-point cushion. There are pluses and minuses in this business, but anything can happen.”
You have to think one marquee driver won’t make it out of this round, a driver high in the power rankings. Is that driver Busch? We have seen abysmal stretches from him before, even this year.
But with the experience of last year behind him, odds are he’ll get through to the Round of Eight.
2. Brad Keselowski
11 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: Fourth at Loudon and Dover
This Year at…
Charlotte: Fifth
Kansas: 10th
Talladega: First
Prediction: Keselowski was the only driver to record top-fives in every race of the Round of 12.
Keselowski is tied atop NASCAR with four wins spread across the entire season, but since he doesn’t have a Toyota under the hood, he’s been overlooked, despite his season-long consistency.
“We've just had a solid three races here (in the Chase)," Keselowski said in another Menzer’s Fox Sports story. "Nothing flashy, but nice, strong, consistent top fives. That's something to be proud of and we have to keep it going and keep finding the speed and hope to get some wins along the way so we can be ready for Homestead."
Kez may be the only driver looking forward to Talladega. He won there earlier this year and in the 2014 elimination race. When it comes to boxing out both lines at a plate race, few are better than the No. 2 driver.
1. Martin Truex Jr.
12 of 12
Best Finish in the Round of 16: First at Chicagoland and Dover
This Year at…
Charlotte: First
Kansas: 14th
Talladega: 13th
Prediction: At this point, it doesn’t matter that Martin Truex Jr. doesn’t have the greatest results at the upcoming tracks (except that Coke 600 at Charlotte, of course).
Truex has three wins in the past six races and is the hottest driver with the fastest car. There’s no reason to think he can’t keep that momentum going.
According to Jordan Bianchi of SBNation.com, Truex said:
"At the end of the day, we need to perform now and we need to perform this weekend. ... Our mindset is really the same as it's been -- just coming out here and perform like we know we can and hopefully we'll be able to do that.
"
Where bad luck always seemed to bite Truex, now that balance has shifted away from him. He’ll be the heavy favorite to win at Charlotte, based on what he did in July.
This No. 78 team has built up a ton of inertia, and it might not stop until Homestead.
All stats and results come via Racing-Reference.info.
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