NASCAR at Charlotte 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Bank of America 500

What makes the Round of 12 (RIP, Contender Round) so compelling is the looming presence of Talladega as the third, final and thus the eliminating race of this round.

That’s the one track you could say Danica Patrick has a chance at winning and not get entirely laughed out of the bar. Partially laughed out, but not entirely.

That makes every race in this round—Charlotte, Kansas and, of course, Talladega—a must-win race. Nobody, save maybe Brad Keselowski, wants to go to Talladega in a do-or-die scenario.

"You just have to look at it like any moment could be a bad moment and any moment could be a good moment,” said Kevin Harvick, per Kenny Bruce’s NASCAR.com story. “You need to capitalize on the good moments in order to control as many as you can."

So that’s where we stand at the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in North Carolina. The Chase standings have been reset to 3,000 points.

Read on for this week’s preview as we start the second round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Current Chase Seedings

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All drivers are reset to 3,000 points, but there is a requisite seeding ahead of the Round of 12.

1. Martin Truex Jr.

2. Kevin Harvick

3. Kyle Busch

4. Matt Kenseth

5. Joey Logano

6. Chase Elliott

7. Brad Keselowski

8. Kurt Busch

9. Denny Hamlin

10. Carl Edwards

11. Jimmie Johnson

12. Austin Dillon

No Respect for Brad Keselowski?

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You may have noticed Brad Keselowski somewhere in the bottom half of the 12 seeds, precisely No. 7.

Seeding in this case is merely a formality, but maybe it’s one that should be taken more seriously.

Truex is a logical No. 1. He won two races in the round formerly known as Challenger. Keselowski, though he didn’t win a race, was the only Chaser to finish in the top five in all three races. It prompted a side-bursting tweet. Or, minimally, a guffaw-inducing one.

“We've just had a solid three races here (in the Chase)," Keselowski said, per Joe Menzer’s FoxSports.com story. "Nothing flashy, but nice, strong, consistent top-fives. That's something to be proud of, and we have to keep it going and keep finding the speed and hope to get some wins along the way so we can be ready for Homestead."

Kez could be the only driver who can contend with Truex right now, yet nobody speaks of him. Maybe because this is, to borrow a term from Infinite Jest, The Year of the Toyota Engine, Kez has been shuffled to the side as a Fordian.

Bad Brad had a quietly perfect Round of 16, but now it starts to get a bit tighter, as it must.

The seeding, useless as it is at this point, merely puts tobacco in Keselowski’s pipe. By the end of this round, Kez will get his due.

Will We See a Repeat Effort from Martin Truex Jr.?

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Like this guy needs any more confidence heading to Charlotte.

Flashback: Truex won the Coca-Cola 600 by leading 392 of the 400 laps that night to win his first race of the season, which, to that point, was filled with disappointments and late-race flubs from a team on the verge—but never getting—its big break.

Everyone watching that dominating performance in Charlotte was waiting for the other shoe to drop. What pit-road problem will derail his lead? Will fuel strategy bite him? Will he have fresh enough tires to hold off the field? Will he plow into the rear end of a car failing to shift from third to fourth gear?

Truex went from this gooey feel-good story to something else entirely: terrifying.

He said in Bob Pockrass’ ESPN.com story:

"

I guess right now it's just our time. Throughout the summer, we led so many laps and had so many great race cars and so many great weekends that things would happen [and we'd lose].

Sometimes it was just rotten luck, sometimes it was mistakes or just circumstances that didn't play out. But I think that the biggest thing is we just kept our heads in the game. We stayed focused on the things that truly matter, and when all that bad luck went away, here we are. I mean, it's just been amazing.

"

And, to quote Rage Against the Machine, who may have been quoting someone else, “What better place than here? What better time than now?”

No car likes clean air more than the No. 78. He alone put all but five other cars a lap down at Dover, where he castrated the Monster Mile.

And now he heads to Charlotte, where he did something more than win a race: He suspended space-time.

Cole Pearn, the man atop the pit box, said: “Martin has had a lot of wins taken away from him in his career, so to be able to make up for lost time in a way is good. You've just got to keep it rolling.”

Can the Joe Gibbs Racing Cars Make It Through?

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At the beginning of the year, there was this alliance between Joe Gibbs Racing’s four cars and Furniture Row’s single car.

Now it feels like the script is flipped, like somehow it’s the four-car monolith that wishes it could be as good as the solo guitarist.

Despite the monster JGR created in Truex this year, JGR advanced all four of its drivers to the Round of 12. All are still threats to reach Homestead, though Carl Edwards seems to be driving on three wheels lately.

He said, per Tim Durr’s FoxSports.com story:

"

You want to run so well at these first two that you don't have to worry about the third one. So, we've really got to lean on the notes from our spring Charlotte race. We've got to go out there and execute. We've got the best guys in the business. (Crew Chief) Dave Rogers is motivated and my pit crew was on our game (at Dover). So, we'll just go out there and try to get to victory lane right off the bat. I think this next round is going to be really tough.

"

Good if you can do it, and if any team can, it’s JGR. If I had to draw up odds, I’d say Toyota is 2-1 to win the Sprint Cup.

Matt Kenseth is, at times, a world-beater—same for Denny Hamlin.

Kyle Busch has been a steady hand all season, except for that one stretch where he finished in the land of Michael McDowell for several races in a row.

Will all four JGR cars reach the Round of 8? And if not, who’s the odd man out? It may very well come down to a pit-road error. Hamlin’s high-risk, high-reward band of merry men lose a tire at the most malapropos times.

Who else is capable of leveling up to JGR in this round? Probably only Keselowski, Truex, Harvick and Jimmie Johnson (speaking of malapropos).

So, yes, JGR still has this aero package firmly on the bridle, and after Sunday, we’ll see exactly which way it’s trending.

Dark-Horse Pick: Austin Dillon

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Austin Dillon doesn’t have many good tracks under his belt yet, but Charlotte, surprisingly, is one of them.

In five trips, he has one top-10, but an average finish of 12.8.

Dale Jarrett, NBCSN’s NASCAR analyst, during the last race broadcast said: “This is a driver exceeding the race car. Now he goes to a couple of 1½-mile race tracks that are his bread and butter. He’s very capable of racing [well], and there’s nobody better at getting more out of a car without wrecking it.”

Dillon certainly doesn’t want to push it too far too soon in Charlotte or in this Round of 12.

The berth in this round was gifted to him by Chip Ganassi’s cars, so what will Dillon do with it?

He’ll aim for a top-10, but if a win is within striking distance, maybe he goes hard for it to advance—maybe he pushes those tires or wrecks the leader. He hasn’t been here before, so we’ll have to see how he reacts to this kind of pressure.

And the Winner Is...Martin Truex Jr.

Mel Evans/Associated Press

Nobody can pick against Truex with a straight face, not after the way he romped through the Round of 16 and certainly not after his Coke 600 domination.

He’s the hottest driver with the hottest car and the hottest crew chief with a JGR-style pit crew barely dropping a lug nut.

You can pick against Truex, but sometimes you have to pick the horse that’s going to win, no matter how short the odds are.

He’s chalk, but he deserves it, and he’s the winner yet again.