Texas vs. Oklahoma: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
The Texas Longhorns and No. 20 Oklahoma Sooners will square off in the 2016 edition of the Red River Rivalry on Saturday afternoon at the Cotton Bowl.
One year later, not much has changed for Texas head coach Charlie Strong. He secured a much-needed win over Oklahoma to fend off the doubters last season. But once again, rumors are beginning to swirl.
Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel reported the school is "very close" to parting ways with Strong following the current campaign. Like 2015, a victory over the Sooners may temporarily calm the storm.
The Longhorns (2-2) opened as 6.5-point underdogs to Oklahoma (2-2), according to Odds Shark. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET and will be televised on Fox Sports 1.
Texas Keys to Victory
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Stay Balanced
Since Oklahoma is susceptible through the air and stout against the run, Texas should lean on the passing game. But the Longhorns need to keep D'Onta Foreman and Chris Warren involved.
Foreman has topped 130 yards in each of his three appearances, and Warren is riding a three-game streak of 95-plus yards. Texas hasn't faced a defensive line of the Sooners' caliber—one that limited TCU to 65 yards on 29 attempts.
The Longhorns need to sustain a few drives on the ground to make Oklahoma respect the running game. Otherwise, the safeties can back off and quarterback Shane Buechele's large task becomes even more difficult.
Bend, Don't Snap
The Sooners are going to put up points, but Texas cannot afford to let them score quickly on an explosive play.
Only nine offenses in the Football Bowl Subdivision have at least five gains of 60-plus yards, but Oklahoma is one of them. Just seven defenses have allowed more 50-plus-yard plays than Texas (5).
That, along with a variety of external factors, has contributed to a change. Strong is taking over defensive play-calling duties from coordinator Vance Bedford, per Orangeblood's Geoff Ketchum.
Strong had an aggressive mindset as a coordinator, but that might leave the Longhorns at risk of allow big plays. There needs to be a balance, and only Strong can feel it properly on game day.
Oklahoma Keys to Victory
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Run the Ball Efficiently
Oklahoma had a simple trend in 2015: Its two worst performances on the ground came in the team's two losses. Texas held Samaje Perine and Co. to a mere 67 yards on 37 attempts.
Houston followed that blueprint, limiting the Sooners to 70 yards on 26 runs. The lone exception is Ohio State, which picked apart Oklahoma's defense enough that it didn't matter.
But that's still the identity of this team. Although Baker Mayfield is an electric college quarterback, he's not meant to carry the attack. Perine and Joe Mixon need the offensive line to win a majority of snaps opposite a decent Longhorns defensive front.
Force A Turnover and Take Advantage
In three games against power-conference competition, Texas has committed to just four turnovers. If Oklahoma can manage two takeaways, consider that an enormous victory for the defense—especially considering the unit has three total turnovers in 2016.
But what happens after those turnovers is important. The Longhorns have allowed a touchdown each time.
Even if the Sooners only steal possession once, it's crucial they make Texas pay for the mistake with seven points—not three.
Texas Players to Watch
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John Burt, Wide Receiver
Buechele is the most important offensive player for Texas, but he needs some help on the outside. Wideout John Burt hasn't contributed much since a 111-yard performance in the season opener.
In this three-game stretch, the speedster has mustered just eight receptions for 80 yards and zero touchdowns. However, it's not for a lack of targets.
Heading into Week 5, Burt had an alarming seven drops compared to 12 catches, per CFB Film Room. Burt needs to provide a downfield threat for Buechele—and then hang on to the ball.
Malik Jefferson, Linebacker
For Texas, stopping Oklahoma's running game is critical. That means trusting the defense's philosophy—something Malik Jefferson said the unit failed to do against Oklahoma State.
"We're not believing in what we do," the sophomore linebacker said, per Jeff Howe of 247Sports. "Coach always comes out there and says in practice that you have to believe in what your scheme is. A lot of guys didn't pay attention, lack of detail."
Jefferson—who is second on the team with 23 tackles—hasn't been perfect this season, but he's still the best defensive player and a leader for the unit.
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Oklahoma Players to Watch
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Mark Andrews, Wide Receiver
Perine is a physical downhill runner. Mixon brings more explosive plays and is a pass-catching option. Dede Westbrook is Mayfield's primary target on the outside.
But when the Sooners need points, they often look for Mark Andrews. The 6'5", 250-pounder flies in the shadows of the national radar, but he's grabbed a team-high four touchdowns.
Andrews—a converted tight end—typically doesn't rip off a big play without a coverage breakdown, but he should be a reliable target on intermediate routes and in the red zone.
Charles Walker, Defensive Tackle
Oklahoma's success up front starts with Charles Walker. He has just seven tackles, but Walker's job in the interior is to demand extra attention and free teammates for big plays.
His presence—along with Matt Romar's—has helped edge-rusher Ogbonnia Okoronkwo emerge as a threat. The sophomore has a team-best 5.5 tackles for loss and four sacks.
Walker also has four pass breakups and two hurries. Though glamorous stats like TFLs and sacks attract box-score attention, Walker is a force with the "dirty work" in the trenches.
What They're Saying
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Texas
Among other defensive woes, missed tackles are causing frustration for Longhorns coaches and players.
"That's what's driving me crazy," Strong said, according to Ezra Siegel of the Dallas Morning News. "I said, 'We have them stopped guys, we're just not tackling' ... Just finish, just run through the guy."
Jefferson added, "It hurts. That's day one ... that's one of the things that gets under my skin as a player because I missed a couple tackles and that shouldn't happen—it's inexcusable."
Oklahoma
The Sooners fell behind TCU 21-7 last week but stuck to their offense, which is a credit to coordinator Lincoln Riley.
"Panicking can only get you beat. Coach Riley always talks about being patient," Perine said, per Eric Bailey of the Tulsa World. " I feel like we're at a point now where we know what we do best and we know we're never out of a game until that clock hits all zeros."
Prediction
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Frustration is starting to build at both schools. If Texas loses, Strong appears headed for a pink slip. If Oklahoma falls, support behind Bob Stoops may start to dwindle significantly.
And it'll be Austin where the disappointment builds this weekend.
The Sooners will start fast on both sides of the ball, running effectively with Perine and Mixon while stopping the Longhorns on early downs. Oklahoma will take a two-score lead into halftime, and Texas won't be able to recover.
Perine, Mixon and Andrews will each score for the Sooners, who improve to 3-2. The Longhorns drop to 2-3.
Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Texas 27
All recruiting information via Scout. Stats from cfbstats or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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