The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 4

Week 4 is when the NFL really starts to heat up. Not only do we have your typical Sunday slate of games, but we also have an early London match. Two teams, the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles, are on bye weeks, so this won't be exactly like our previous 15-game projections.

We will go through each game for the remaining 14 NFL matches this week to try to give you a handicapping edge, be it from reversed lines, recent trends, crucial matchups or simple power ranking questions.

Record ATS total: 19-27

Record ATS last week: 7-8

Miami vs. Cincinnati

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Line: Cincinnati -7.5

Result: Cincinnati 22, Miami 7

The Cincinnati Bengals absolutely dominated the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football this week. The Bengals racked up 140 more yards and 18 more minutes of possession than the Dolphins. Cincinnati also won the turnover battle by two, had 11 more first downs and had three more red zone trips than Miami.

Cincinnati sacked Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill five times, with 3.5 of those coming from their defensive stars in Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins. Once the Bengals went up 10-7 on the Dolphins in the first quarter, they never gave the lead up, leading by multiple scores the entire second half.

A.J. Green, who had 173 receiving yards on the day, proved once again that he's the most important receiver in the NFL based on how much his offense relies on him. Cincinnati, outfitted in white-on-white at home for its color rush iteration, simply outplayed the Dolphins.

Cover: Cincinnati

Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Opening line: Indianapolis -2.5 (+101)

Best favorite line: Indianapolis -2.5 (-110)

Best away line: Jacksonville +2.5 (-105)

Before the West Coasters wake up, the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars will kickoff in London, playing one of the rare "neutral site" games that gamblers love to bring up in power ranking situations.

In Jacksonville's three trips to London, they've been outscored by a mark of 104-to-61. To say the least, their international series hasn't been kind to them. Since 2014, Gus Bradley's squad has won just four of 19 games outside of EverBank Field.

In total, the four squads Bradley defeated on the road during his entire four-year career with the Jaguars went on to post a combined record of 18-46, with none of them finishing over .500.

If this game comes down to the Jaguars needing Blake Bortles to make a play late, they are in trouble. It seems like it's a week-to-week occurrence that he's taking brutal sacks or throwing interceptions when the game is on the line.

Bortles can turn a potential score into a pick-six, with last year's Atlanta-Jacksonville matchup burned in the retinas of anyone who trusted that Jaguars team. At some point, you just have to realize they're not a good bet.

The pick: Indianapolis -2.5

Seattle vs. New York Jets

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Opening line: New York Jets +3.5 (-110)

Best home line: New York Jets +2.5 (+100)

Best away line: Seattle -2.5 (-110)

The Seattle Seahawks, who scored just 15 points in the first two weeks of the season, are now road favorites as a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast for an early game on Sunday. With a banged up Russell Wilson—a quarterback who relies on his mobility—this is cause for concern.

If played in Seattle, this would be an 8.5-point line in favor of the Seahawks, even though the team has the worst offensive line in the sport and has struggled against good defensive lines—like those of Miami and Los Angeles, when Seattle failed to cover. They were able to route the San Francisco 49ers, but San Francisco's best line of scrimmage player may be rookie five-technique DeForest Buckner.

Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the Jets have stars on the line in 2015 first-round pick Leonard Williams, 2013 first-round pick Sheldon Richardson and 2011 first-round pick Muhammad Wilkerson. There should be a party in Seattle's backfield all day, and that's problematic for a hobbled quarterback.

At the end of the day, this is just too many points for the Jets at home in this situation. The line is likely a reaction to the Seahawks' 37-18 win last week and Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's six-interception game.

When the public zigs, you should zag. If you can find this line rising back up to three points at any time this weekend, you should hop on it.

The pick: New York Jets +2.5

Detroit vs. Chicago

LM Otero/Associated Press

Opening line: Chicago +2 (-110)

Best home line: Chicago +3 (-115)

Best away line: Detroit -3 (-105)

The Chicago Bears were embarrassed on Sunday Night Football by the Dallas Cowboys last week, dropping them down to an 0-3 record. The Bears are now a touchdown behind the rest of the league in point differential, and without starting quarterback Jay Cutler in the lineup, it's going to be hard to convince people that Chicago is a team worth investment.

That's where we come in.

If you reverse this three-point line, that would mean that the Lions would be nine-point favorites at home. Detroit has only won two of their last 22 regular season games by that amount.

The reason this line is inflated is that most gamblers aren't accounting for the Lions' horrible defense. Heading into Week 3, we were wondering if the Aaron Rodgers-Jordy Nelson connection was dead. Nelson was able to double his season's output with his performance against Detroit and now leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns.

All three of Detroit's opponents (Green Bay, Tennessee and Indianapolis) have had their highest-scoring games this year against the Lions. That defense is the cure for the common cold as far as offenses are concerned. 

You can like Detroit without loving them. If you're willing to take the odds on a division rival pushing a field goal game on the road, you're in love.

The pick: Chicago +3

Cleveland vs. Washington

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Opening line: Washington -6.5 (-115)

Best home line: Washington -7.5 (-110)

Best away line: Cleveland +8.5 (-110)

Oh boy. Kirk Cousins has started 10 games in September and October over the last two seasons, and he's only led the Washington Redskins to one victory by more than a touchdown. Meanwhile, the line is suggesting a multi-score win from the Redskins.

Yikes.

Despite their hot run in November and December last season, when the squad went 6-2 in their last eight regular season games, Washington is just 10-10 against the spread since the start of the 2015 per TeamRankings.com, when Cousins took over as the team's quarterback. As a home favorite under Cousins, the Redskins are 0-4 against the spread.

Everyone is off the 0-3 Cleveland Browns, but if you look at the Browns' individual games, none of them would suggest that they are a car crash in 2016. Sure, they got blown out by the Philadelphia Eagles, but the Eagles have been by far the most dominant team in the league through three weeks—and they also did the same to both Washington and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Against the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland went up by three touchdowns in the first quarter against a now 3-0 team. They took last week's game against the Dolphins into overtime with a third-string rookie quarterback and Terrelle Pryor as a triple-threat player. This isn't a team that just mails in the game after going down a score.

The pick: Cleveland +8.5

Tennessee vs. Houston

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

Opening line: Houston -4.5 (-125)

Best home line: Houston -5 (-107)

Best away line: Tennessee +6 (-110)

The New England Patriots routed the Houston Texans in Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. Luckily for Houston, they got that out of the way

With a three-day head start on the Tennessee Titans' work week, you would assume that they have the edge in terms of preparation.

The Titans have won just three games in regulation since quarterback Marcus Mariota was drafted second overall in 2015. Of their 15 losses, 11 of them have come by five or more points.

Some will see this as an opportunity to bet against the Texans as they put their face of the franchise, defensive end J.J. Watt, on the injured reserve list. The truth is that his back injury has visibly affected his play all season. Mariota is still a sack-fumble liability, and the Titans don't typically crack more than 16 points under his lead.

If the Texans can just get to 21 points, they should be able to cover this line. They have been able to hit that mark in seven of their last 10 regular season games.

Since the start of 2015, Tennessee is 5-13-1 against the spread, with a 3-6 record against the spread as the road team, per TeamRankings.com.

The pick: Houston -5

Buffalo vs. New England

Steven Senne/Associated Press

Due to the uncertainty of who the New England Patriots will start at quarterback, this line is not up on most books at the moment. Without knowing that, it's nearly impossible to predict this game, one way or another.

Carolina vs. Atlanta

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Opening line: Atlanta +3 (+100)

Best home line: Atlanta +3 (+100)

Best away line: Carolina -3 (-112)

The Carolina Panthers have had a double-digit lead in each of their first three games of the season, but against the great pass rushes of the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings, they lost. As we saw in last year's playoffs, if Carolina goes toe-to-toe with a quality pass rush, their offensive tackles fold. When they aren't overmatched on the edges, their offense hums.

Though the Atlanta Falcons gave the Panthers their only regular season loss last year, they still don't have much of a pass rush going for them. Do you really believe lightning strikes twice? Do you really believe Carolina starts the season off 1-3?

The Falcons are still a liability on the defensive side of the ball, as they try to play a Seattle-style Cover 3 defense without Cliff Avril, Earl Thomas, Michael Bennett and Kam Chancellor. Outside of cornerback Desmond Trufant, the Atlanta defense lacks identity—something you couldn't say about Minnesota's or Denver's defenses.

Carolina won seven of their eight road games last season by at least a field goal. Their defense travels.

Since the start of 2015, Atlanta has posted a 1-6 record against the spread as home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com.

The pick: Carolina -3

Denver vs. Tampa Bay

Gary Landers/Associated Press

Opening line: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-115)

Best home line: Tampa Bay +3 (+100)

Best away line: Denver -3 (-110)

According to Football Outsider's DVOA metric, the Denver Broncos have a better overall squad, overall offense, overall defense, pass offense, run offense and pass defense than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you've watched Denver run to a 3-0 record—through the Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals—you would agree with those statements.

The problem with the Buccaneers is that when they lose, they lose big. Though they are 7-12 since drafting quarterback Jameis Winston first overall in 2015, eight of their 12 losses have come by multiple scores (at least eight points).

If you want to take Tampa's side of the line here, you're better off just posting money on their straight up victory. Only 25 percent of their losses even fall within a touchdown thanks to Winston's gunslinger mentality.

But the Buccaneers aren't showing progress this season, as the Los Angeles Rams—who had nine combined points in their first two weeks—dropped 37 points in Tampa for the Bucs' second-straight loss.

At home, Winston's Buccaneers are just 3-6 against the spread, while Denver is 6-3 on the road ATS since the start of 2015, according to TeamRankings.com. Denver went 6-2 on the road straight up last season, as their defense has proved that it travels.

The pick: Denver -3

Oakland vs. Baltimore

Weston Kenney/Associated Press

Opening line: Baltimore -3.5 (-110)

Best home line: Baltimore -3.5 (+100)

Best away line: Oakland +3.5 (-110)

In Week 1, the Baltimore Ravens beat the Buffalo Bills because of a 66-yard touchdown to receiver Mike Wallace. If not for that one touchdown on a third-and-long, they would have scored just six points against the Bills.

In Week 2, the Ravens were down 20-0 to the now 0-3 Cleveland Browns. In Week 3, the Ravens managed to beat the now 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars by only two points.

At some point, Baltimore's close-game luck has to run out. Last year, according to TeamRankings.com, the Ravens were just 1-6-1 against the spread at home, the worst mark in the league.

Numbers would suggest that Baltimore has been overrated at home recently, and their 3-0 stretch to start 2016 seems fluky. Oakland takes games tight to the end, as they haven't lost a game on the road by multiple scores in the last two seasons.

The Raiders also beat the Ravens head-to-head last season. If they can keep it close, and a Baltimore game-clinching field goal leads to an Oakland win against the spread, the Raiders seem like your best bet.

The pick: Oakland +3.5

New Orleans vs. San Diego

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Opening line: San Diego -4 (-110)

Best home line: San Diego -3.5 (-110)

Best away line: New Orleans +4 (-110)

Let's examine what San Diego and New Orleans look like side-by-side according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metrics.

Team	Overall	Off.	Pass Off.	Run Off.	Def.	Pass Def.	Run Def.
Chargers	10th	7th	6th	5th	16th	14th	23rd
Saints	23rd	6th	10th	8th	30th	27th	31st

Besides somehow coming out ahead of San Diego by one spot in overall offense (despite lower rankings in passing offense and running offense), the Saints are clearly lessers to the Chargers on paper. Why exactly is San Diego only a half-point favorite over New Orleans on a neutral site?

The Saints are also coming off a short week after getting smacked on Monday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons. Last season, New Orleans lost five games when coming off a loss the prior week. That trend has extended to 2016, where they are now 0-3.

Don't trust a team that can't stop a nose bleed.

The pick: San Diego -3.5

Dallas vs. San Francisco

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Opening line: San Francisco PK (-110)

Best home line: San Francisco +3 (-115)

Best away line: Dallas -3 (-100)

This is just too many points. This line opened up as a pick 'em, meaning that Dallas would be six-point favorites in AT&T Stadium, but it has swung three more points in the direction of the Cowboys.

This is likely due to the fact that Dallas won 31-17 last week at home, while San Francisco lost 37-18 on the road in Seattle to one of the best defenses in the league. Want to know what the Cowboys don't have? One of the best defenses in the league.

If you look at Ourlads' depth chart for their front seven, outside of defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford and linebacker Sean Lee (who has somehow made it three weeks without sustaining a season-ending injury), the unit is filled with questionable talent: Jack Crawford, Terrell McClain, Benson Mayowa, Andrew Gachkar and Anthony Hitchens.

Dallas has only won three road games by more than three points in its last nine attempts, but it's expected to perform to that level this week? Last season, Dallas was just 1-4 against the spread as a favorite. The Cowboys are just 1-1 against the spread this season in that situation, according to TeamRankings.com.

This game will be decided on the ground, where the 49ers have a disadvantage both running the ball and stopping the run. But as a home dog to a rookie quarterback, you almost have to take Chip Kelly's squad.

The pick: San Francisco +3

Los Angeles vs. Arizona

Kelvin Kuo/Associated Press

Opening line: Arizona -8.5 (-105)

Best home line: Arizona -7.5 (-110)

Best away line: Los Angeles +8.5 (-110)

Carson Palmer just hasn't looked the same since suffering a finger injury against the Philadelphia Eagles last season.

From Week 1 to Week 15 in 2015, Palmer had 33 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. Since then, including the playoffs, he's posted 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Last week, Palmer recorded a disappointing 36.0 passer rating.

On the other side of the field, the Los Angeles Rams went from scoring nine points in their first two games to a 37-point outburst on the road in Tampa.

What exactly are we missing here? If this line were reversed to be in Los Angeles, the Rams would be nearly field goal underdogs at home, despite the fact that the Seattle Seahawks were only able to score three points against the Rams in L.A. in Week 2.

The Cardinals should be favored, but they've only won one game out of their last six by nine points or more. It was against the same team that allowed 37 points to the Rams just last week. Further, Arizona was able to win by nine points or more in half of their games last season.

They are still living off of the hype of what their squad used to be.

The pick: Los Angeles +8.5

Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Opening line: Pittsburgh -4 (-115)

Best home line: Pittsburgh -5 (-107)

Best away line: Kansas City +5.5 (-110)

Since the third quarter of their game against the San Diego Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs have outscored their opponents 66-25. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Chiefs have the second-best team in the league. The Pittsburgh Steelers, who routed the Redskins, beat the Cincinnati Bengals by eight points and were routed themselves by the Philadelphia Eagles, are ranked just 22nd in the NFL.

Still, Pittsburgh is not only a favorite at home, but 5.5-point favorites according to some books. That means if the game were played in Kansas City, it would essentially be a pick'em. That's a red flag.

The Bengals have the sixth-worst point differential in the league. The Redskins have the fifth-worst point differential in the league. The Chiefs, since starting their comeback against the Chargers, are up 41 points. That would be good for the second-best point differential in the NFL, behind only the Eagles, who just smashed Pittsburgh 34-3.

Even with their early blemish against San Diego, the Chiefs have the fifth-best point differential. Anything over three points should be viewed as value on the Kansas City side this week.

The pick: Kansas City +5.5

New York Giants vs. Minnesota

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Opening line: Minnesota -3.5 (-110)

Best home line: Minnesota -4.5 (-110)

Best away line: New York Giants +5 (-107)

As much as we laughed at the Minnesota Vikings when they traded a first-round pick a week before the season for quarterback Sam Bradford, they are now laughing at us. With a 3-0 record, the Vikings are helping prove that the most dominant units in football are on the defensive side of the ball.

The quarterbacks for the 3-0 teams are Bradford, Shaun Hill, Jimmy Garoppolo, rookie Jacoby Brissett, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian and rookie Carson Wentz. Defense-heavy teams are typically underrated, but this Vikings team could be one of the best ever ATS.

Since the start of the 2015 season, including the playoffs, the Vikings are 17-3 against the spread, posting the best record ATS in the NFL last season before starting their 3-0 run this year. To put that into perspective, the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos, who went 17-2 and 15-4 straight up respectively, posted a combined 23-14-1 record against the spread last season, according to TeamRankings.com.

On the other hand, the New York Giants have been at their opponent's 20-yard line nine times over the last two games, and they've only converted two of their red zone visits into touchdowns. You aren't going to win games against a defense of Minnesota's caliber by marching down the field, brain farting and settling for field goals.

The Vikings won both of their road games by multiple scores, while they covered their home match against the division rival Green Bay Packers by a touchdown in Week 2. Ride with them until Vegas finally finds a balance with the squad.

The pick: Minnesota -4.5

Locks of the Week

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

1) Cleveland +8.5 vs Washington

2) Denver -3 vs Tampa Bay

3) Dallas vs San Francisco +3

4) Los Angeles +8.5 vs Arizona

5) New York Giants vs Minnesota -4.5

All lines, including line movement, come from Odds Shark.