Valtteri Bottas Should Leave Williams for Renault for 2017 Formula 1 Season
The five red lights went out and Valtteri Bottas leaped off the line, instantly nudging ahead of Daniel Ricciardo's Red Bull and sidestepping Kimi Raikkonen's slow-starting Ferrari.
As he sped past the piece of track reserved for the sister Ferrari of Sebastian Vettel, whose engine failure on the formation lap left him unable to start a race for the first time in his Formula One career, just two cars separated the man who started sixth from the lead of the Bahrain Grand Prix.
It was at that point—as Lewis Hamilton, determined to make up for yet another poor getaway from pole position, hounded the rear of Nico Rosberg's car and positioned himself on the outside of his Mercedes team-mate—when Bottas faced a dilemma.
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With a large gap appearing on the inside of the right-hand hairpin of Turn 1, would Bottas adopt an aggressive approach in an attempt to steal an extra position?
Or—with a podium position already in his grasp—would he hold back, consolidate third place through the opening sequence of corners, wait for the Mercedes drivers to have their customary collision and pick up the pieces from there?
In the end, he did neither.
The gap was just too inviting to resist, but at the exact moment he committed to the inside of Turn 1, he immediately wished he hadn't, his muddled thought process resulting in the inevitable accident as Bottas helplessly slid into the side of Hamilton's car at the apex.
In isolation, this was nothing more than a clumsy first-corner incident as Bottas was a little too ambitious for his own good and paid the price, eventually finishing ninth after incurring a drive-through penalty.
But after 12 months of warning signs, it was final confirmation that one of the most impressive talents in modern F1 had been contaminated by the culture of his team.
Bottas had come to be regarded as a future world champion during his breakthrough year in 2014, when his six assured podium finishes guided Williams to third in the constructors' standings, their best result in 11 years.
Yet almost since that stream of podiums began to dry up in early 2015, when Williams' progress stagnated and his development—both as a driver and in career terms—stalled, Bottas has become the embodiment of a team with a habit of tripping over themselves whenever a major result is within reach.
In that sense, his mistake in Bahrain—a function of balancing his natural racing instincts with the need to secure handy constructors' points—was the driving equivalent of, say, the team's error at Silverstone 2015, when indecisive thinking saw the team fall from a position of strength to relatively nowhere.
With his contract expiring at the end of this year, Bottas has the opportunity to escape the stifling, restrictive atmosphere of Williams for 2017, with Finnish commentator Oskari Saari telling Danish publication BT (h/t Planet F1) how he received a firm offer from Renault during the August break.
However, manager Didier Coton has suggested Bottas is more than happy to remain where he is, telling Autosport (h/t Eurosport) his client has an "unfinished story" with a team who he feels could excel when the major regulation changes are introduced next year.
At the recent Singapore GP, Bottas told the official F1 website "there is still nothing to be announced yet," although—given Williams' habit of announcing both drivers in a single statement in recent years—the delay in confirming his new deal is seemingly due to the team's ongoing search for Felipe Massa's replacement.
A desire to spend a fifth season with the team he first joined as a test driver in 2010 is typical of a man as noble and loyal as Bottas.
But his apparent willingness to stay put is the sign of a driver who—having openly admitted it was "disturbing" to be linked to a team of Ferrari's stature last year, per BBC Sport—is reluctant to leave his comfort zone.
For all Bottas' confidence in his team's ability to adapt to the next generation of F1, the new-for-2017 rules and their large emphasis on downforce will exploit one of the biggest weaknesses of Williams, who have lacked the downforce of their closest rivals throughout the current regulations cycle.
Williams have taken steps to prepare for the new demands, running a double-decker rear wing and other appendages during in-season tests in an effort to simulate 2017 downforce levels.
Yet technical boss Pat Symonds' recent admission, per Autosport (h/t Eurosport), that two "quite major" upgrades introduced in 2016 haven't met Williams' expectations—a possible indication of poor correlation between the wind tunnel and the track—is hugely concerning ahead of F1's season of change.
Compare that to Renault who, after treating 2016 as a transition year, are expected to make considerable progress next season, when they will slowly but surely begin to harness all that potential at Team Enstone.
With routes to Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren-Honda all seemingly blocked, Renault may represent Bottas' only chance of racing for a factory outfit. And at 27, he fits the profile of a team searching for a driver to lead them until at least 2020, as team principal Frederic Vasseur—who oversaw Bottas' progress in the junior categories—told Motorsport.com's Roberto Chinchero.
Indeed, should Bottas suddenly decide to swap ice-white for matte-yellow, an agreement could come to fruition quite quickly.
As managing director Cyril Abiteboul told Motorsport.com's Adam Cooper, Renault's "very good friendship" with Mercedes parent company Daimler in the road-car industry has been behind their pursuit of Esteban Ocon, who spent the first half of 2016 effectively on loan to Renault.
Given Bottas' relationship with Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff, who worked alongside the Finn at Williams until the beginning of 2013, a similar, Mercedes-influenced deal may be easily arranged if he wants it.
But that—whether he wants it or not—is the key, with his decision set to reveal much about what he hopes to achieve in F1.
Is he happy to keep circulating for Williams—registering occasional podium finishes, maybe even the one-off grand prix win—and amassing points for a team more concerned with prize money than actual prizes?
Or—as with Hamilton's move from McLaren to Mercedes four years ago, when the team who made him could no longer provide what he wanted—is he ready to flee the nest and place his trust in a project with far greater long-term potential and with the ultimate aim of winning the world championship?
Having gone stale at Williams, a change of scenery and a fresh start could re-energise Bottas' career.
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