The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 96: Lineker vs. Dodson
The UFC returns to Portland, Oregon, on Saturday for the first time since 2009 with a solid offering on Fox Sports 1.
In the main event, former flyweights John Dodson and John Lineker meet in a strong matchup with implications for the wide-open bantamweight title picture. Dodson challenged twice for the title at flyweight but fell short both times against pound-for-pound great Demetrious Johnson. Lineker repeatedly failed to make the weight but has looked like a monster in three fights at 135 pounds.
With champion Dominick Cruz's next defense still up in the air and a bevy of potential challengers milling around the division, the winner of this fight has a chance of making an impressive statement.
The co-main event is also an excellent matchup. Former Bellator lightweight champion Will Brooks takes on Brazil's Alex Oliveira in an intriguing and entertaining fight that should have the winner facing a Top 10 opponent.
The rest of the card, as with most Fox Sports 1 events, has fun but mostly irrelevant fights. There are some promising prospects and good action fights but nothing that specifically demands the viewer's attention.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Bantamweights
Kelly Faszholz (3-1; 0-1 UFC) vs. Ketlen Vieira (6-0; 0-0 UFC)
Faszholz made her short-notice debut in the UFC against Lauren Murphy in February and came up short, falling by third-round knockout. She gets a chance for redemption against Brazil's Ketlen Vieira, a native of Manaus who has compiled an undefeated record against low-level competition in her native country.
The American is mostly a boxer who slings a high volume of head-body punching combinations on the feet. Counters are her specialty. She's also a handful in the clinch and has decent takedown defense. Vieira is a sharp boxer in her own right, working behind a crisp jab and hard counterpunching combinations in the pocket. She also has a background in judo and some ground skills.
Prediction: This should be a fun fight between two willing, quick-paced strikers. Faszholz throws a bit more, but Vieira is a little sharper, especially in the pocket. The Brazilian takes a back-and-forth, entertaining decision.
Heavyweights
Cody East (12-2; 0-1 UFC) vs. Curtis Blaydes (5-1; 0-1 UFC)
Youthful heavyweights, a rarity in the UFC's geriatric 265-pound division, meet in a solid matchup. Blaydes ran into a tough matchup in his debut against the rising Francis Ngannou, while East fell to journeyman Walt Harris by knockout in the first round. The loser will likely be cut, while the winner will reclaim some of the hype with which he entered the UFC.
East is a talented and well-rounded fighter. He has a background in wrestling but mostly prefers to use a crisp boxing game on the feet. Counterpunching is a specialty, and he carries real power in his hands. Blaydes was a junior college national champion wrestler, but he's also a developing striker with a sharp jab and crushing low kicks.
Prediction: If this stays standing, East's sharp counters and combination game will give Blaydes problems. Blaydes' size and wrestling acumen give him a big advantage in tight, though, and that should be enough for Blaydes to take a decision.
Light Heavyweights
Jonathan Wilson (7-1; 1-1 UFC) vs. Ion Cutelaba (11-2, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC)
Moldova's Cutelaba takes on the American Wilson in a strong light heavyweight bout. Wilson melted Chris Dempsey in his debut but fell short against Luis Henrique da Silva in June, while Cutelaba dropped his first UFC appearance to Misha Cirkunov that same month.
Cutelaba is an athletic bruiser with huge power in his hands. He presses forward aggressively, has good timing and rhythm on his punching combinations and does good work in the clinch, but he's a mess defensively and relies more on his physicality than proper technique as a wrestler.
Like Cutelaba, Wilson is athletic, quick and powerful. The southpaw prefers to strike and throws a heat-seeking straight left and left kick, but outside of strong takedown defense, his skills are limited. Even on the feet, he doesn't show much depth or many options and relies on his raw power and speed to get the job done.
Prediction: This should be a slobberknocker between two quick-paced, powerful strikers. Cutelaba should have a substantial advantage if he can get into the clinch, but Wilson fights longer and is more diverse at striking range. Cutelaba's durability and inside game get the job done, and he takes a close decision.
Middleweights
Nate Marquardt (34-16-2; 12-9 UFC) vs. Tamdan McCrory (14-4; 4-4 UFC)
Longtime veteran Nate Marquardt finds himself at the end of his tether and possibly his career in the UFC. The former title challenger has lost six of his last eight, many of them by devastating knockout, and it's probably time to hang up the gloves. He faces New York's McCrory, who has split a pair of fights in his return to the UFC.
Marquardt can do a bit of everything and do it with real skill. He's a crisp boxer on the feet with a smooth kicking arsenal, wrestles with technical acumen and can finish with strikes or submissions on the mat. McCrory is huge for the division at 6'4" and is a finisher by nature. He slings hard punching combinations on the feet but does his best work on the ground with an aggressive guard and mean top game.
Prediction: McCrory is inconsistent, but he's exactly the kind of dangerous, powerful opponent who has given Marquardt fits in the recent past. The New Yorker knocks Marquardt to the mat and finishes with a choke in the second round.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Welterweights
Keita Nakamura (32-7-2, 1 NC; 2-4 UFC) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (15-5; 1-1 UFC)
Japan's Nakamura takes on Brazil's dos Santos in a well-matched welterweight bout. Nakamura has been an unexpected success in his three bouts since returning to the UFC, sandwiching submission wins around a competitive decision loss to blue-chip prospect Tom Breese. Dos Santos lost his debut last year but rebounded by brutally knocking out Omari Akhmedov in April.
The Brazilian is an athletic, powerful striker who throws big punching combinations and brutal kicks. He's a subpar defensive wrestler, though, and is only a passable grappler. Nakamura, by contrast, is lethal on the mat. He excels in transitions and scrambles and has a knack for getting to the back and slipping in the rear-naked choke.
Prediction: If this stays on the feet, dos Santos will destroy Nakamura. The Brazilian only has to make one mistake for Nakamura to capitalize, however, and that's probably what will happen here. Nakamura finds the submission in the second round.
Heavyweights
Walt Harris (8-4; 1-3 UFC) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (16-3; 1-1 UFC)
The American Harris takes on Dagestan's Abdurakhimov in a fun, low-stakes scrap of heavyweight strikers. Harris finally got a win in the UFC after three losses by knocking out Cody East in April, while Abdurakhimov rebounded from a loss in his debut by beating up Anthony Hamilton in February.
Harris is a big, athletic southpaw who carries serious power in his hands. He's essentially a pure striker, but one who throws a good, technical selection of jabs, crosses and potent left kicks. Abdurakhimov likes to strike as well, and the Russian throws big, looping but technical punches along with sharp kicks at range. Strong takedown defense and a solid clinch game provide backup.
Prediction: Harris is bigger and more athletic, but Abdurakhimov has more depth of skill and a strong clinch to fall back on. The Dagestani takes a decision.
Featherweights
Hacran Dias (23-4-1; 3-3 UFC) vs. Andre Fili (15-4; 3-3 UFC)
Formerly touted prospects who have never quite gotten over the hump meet in a solid featherweight scrap. Dias, a member of Jose Aldo's Nova Uniao team, has been limited due to injuries. He dropped a decision to Cub Swanson in April, while Fili, a longtime member of Team Alpha Male in California, suffered a devastating head-kick knockout loss to Yair Rodriguez that same month.
Both fighters badly need a win not just to stay in the UFC, but to regain something resembling momentum in their stalled careers.
Dias has all the necessary skills, including a sharp repertoire of punch-kick combinations on the feet, strong takedown defense, slick takedowns and a smooth, technical top game, but he lacks urgency and killer instinct.
Fili has the opposite problem: He's all killer instinct and aggression, even when stepping back and being a bit more conservative would benefit him. Offense is the name of his game, with heavy kicks and punching combinations on the feet and explosive takedowns, but he's hittable and it's not hard to get him to the mat.
Prediction: This is a strange matchup given the two fighters' divergent personalities and approaches, but the more conservative style of Dias should get the job done in the clinch and from top position. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Light Heavyweights
Luis Henrique da Silva (11-0; 1-0 UFC) vs. Joachim Christensen (13-3; 0-0 UFC)
A fun light heavyweight matchup headlines the Fox Sports 1 prelims as Brazil's da Silva draws Denmark's Christensen. The Dane makes his debut after beating solid competition on the European scene, while da Silva knocked out Jonathan Wilson in his first Octagon appearance last June.
Da Silva is an aggressive, march-you-down kind of fighter. He packs some heat in his hands, but he isn't much of a boxer and relies on his heavy kicking arsenal and devastating clinch game to get the job done. Christensen is big for the division at 6'3" and mostly prefers to strike, throwing tight punching combinations in the pocket and working his way into the clinch.
Prediction: Da Silva is younger, more athletic and generally more dangerous. He works the legs and body before finding the knockout in the clinch in the second round.
Josh Burkman vs. Zak Ottow
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Lightweights
Josh Burkman (28-13, 1 NC; 6-8, 1 NC UFC) vs. Zak Ottow (13-3; 0-0 UFC)
The veteran Burkman gets one more chance to get back on track against the late replacement Ottow, who steps up on short notice to replace Bobby Green. Since returning to the UFC in 2015, Burkman has won just one fight in five outings, the most recent a defeat at the hands of Paul Felder in May. Ottow has won four in a row since a loss to UFC vet Jacob Volkmann last year.
Burkman, despite being nearly 36 and having more than 40 fights on his record in 13 years, remains an excellent athlete. He's still quick and carries real power in his hands, while his game is diverse and dangerous everywhere.
The Utah native fights from both stances on the feet, throwing a steady stream of hard kicks at all levels. The best part of his striking game comes in the pocket, where he excels at moving his head and countering. His durability is a big part of that success, and he's willing to take one to give one back.
Wrestling is a solid secondary skill set for Burkman. He still shoots an explosive double-leg takedown and has a good single as well, while he's been difficult for all but the most skilled wrestlers to get down. From the top, he throws hard ground strikes and has a knack for finding the guillotine in transition.
Ottow is a thickly built submission grappler. He hits with some power on the feet, but he's stiff and not especially skilled. That's really not his game, however, and strikes mostly serve to bring him into the clinch and cover his takedown attempts. In the tie-ups, he throws good knees and hits solid trips, and he's competent with shot takedowns.
The ground is where Ottow shines. He's an aggressive hunter of submissions both from top position and his back, while he showcases a technical series of passes and good control.
Betting Odds
Burkman -235 (bet $235 to win $100), +195 (bet $100 to win $195)
Prediction: Ottow is a solid if limited pickup for the UFC, but unless Burkman's age has caught up with him, this is the veteran's fight to lose. He's more athletic, a more skilled wrestler and a vastly superior striker, and any of that should be enough to get it done. Burkman finds the submission in the second round.
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Louis Smolka vs. Brandon Moreno
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Flyweights
Louis Smolka (11-1; 5-1 UFC) vs. Brandon Moreno (11-3; 0-0 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter 24 cast member Moreno steps up on just over a week's notice, replacing the injured Sergio Pettis, to take on rising Hawaiian Smolka in a fine flyweight bout. Moreno gave a great account of himself in a fight with the highly touted Alexandre Pantoja on TUF, the toughest opponent of his career. Smolka has won four in a row, finishing Paddy Holohan and Ben Nguyen in his last two outings.
The 22-year-old Moreno is big for the division at 5'7". He owns a crisp boxing game that focuses on punching combinations inside the pocket, preferring to end his sequences with uppercuts to catch his opponents as they duck. The native of Mexico is happy to exchange at close range, trusting his durability and head movement to allow him to weather the storm and land his own shots.
Moreno is still relatively raw elsewhere. His takedown defense is passable, and he's decent in the clinch. On the mat, he's aggressive and a bit too willing to try for low-percentage submissions from his back.
The Mexican is a gifted young fighter and has made real improvements in the last several years, particularly to his wrestling game, but he's still raw and growing from fight to fight.
Smolka is an improving young fighter. He's huge for a flyweight at 5'9" and fights long on the feet, slinging a steady diet of front and round kicks at his opponent before committing to punching combinations inside. While not particularly fast or powerful, Smolka has a great gas tank and works at a fantastic pace, constantly stinging his opponent with shot after shot to the legs and body.
While he's competent at range, the clinch is Smolka's wheelhouse. He puts his long frame to good use in the tie-ups and has tremendous leverage, which serves him well for creating space to land sharp knees and especially for his arsenal of trips and throws.
Smolka's takedown defense isn't great, but he's happy to be on the ground whether he starts on top or bottom. Scrambles are his specialty, and he excels at combining sweeps and submission attempts, which makes it difficult for opponents to maintain control. When Smolka gets on top, he's a monster. He passes smoothly, keeps a heavy base and drops bombing ground strikes.
Betting Odds
Smolka -400, Moreno +325
Prediction: If Moreno can make this a striking match, particularly inside the pocket, it could get interesting fast. The Mexican is a technically skilled puncher who can match Smolka's pace and exploit the Hawaiian's porous defense, particularly at close range.
The problem for Moreno will be maintaining that range without allowing Smolka to grab ahold of the clinch. If Smolka can get this to the mat, he should find his way to a submission in short order. The pick is Smolka by rear-naked choke late in the first round.
Will Brooks vs. Alex Oliveira
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Lightweights
Will Brooks (18-1; 1-0 UFC) vs. Alex Oliveira (14-4-1, 1 NC; 4-2 UFC)
Former Bellator champion Brooks makes his second UFC appearance against rising Brazilian Oliveira. Brooks took a decision from Ross Pearson in his UFC debut in July, which ran his current winning streak to nine fights. Oliveira rebounded from a first-round submission loss to Donald Cerrone in February by putting a beating on James Moontasri in July.
The winner will be on the cusp of the lightweight elite. A matchup with one of the best fighters in the UFC's deepest division will surely follow.
Brooks is a quick, athletic talent with elite skills in several areas. The American Top Team product is a competent striker who works well from both stances, flicking a steady diet of kicks at long range and then sliding in combinations of counterpunches when his opponent tries to cover the distance.
Alternatively, Brooks can move forward behind a combination, switching from one stance to another to help him cover distance. He particularly likes to throw stepping knees in that sequence.
While he can win fights at range, Brooks does his best work when he's transitioning between distance and the clinch. When his opponent tries to pressure him, Brooks excels at taking a slight step forward and grabbing his opponent or using his punches to disguise his entries as he, himself, moves forward. When tied up in the clinch, Brooks is a monster, delivering knees, uppercuts and elbows in devastating sequences.
Wrestling is another strength for Brooks. His clinch strikes open up trips and throws, and he shoots an explosive double-leg takedown as well. Defensively, he's difficult to get to the mat and competent from his back if necessary. On top, Brooks maintains strong control, passes smoothly and has big power in his ground strikes when he postures.
Oliveira is a tremendous physical specimen blessed with great size (5'11" and a 76" reach), speed and athleticism. His skills are still a bit raw, but he makes good in-cage decisions and knows how to maximize his physical advantages.
At range, Oliveira throws heavy punching combinations and a variety of kicks as he moves forward. He has a tendency to overextend and leave openings for his opponent to counter but packs serious power in his hands and times his shots well. Like Brooks, Oliveira excels at entering the clinch, either as a counter to his opponent's forward movement or when he overshoots the mark with his explosive blitzes.
In the clinch, Oliveira's long limbs and height give him great leverage. He uses underhooks and collar ties to gain control, especially against the fence, and then drops sharp knees to the head and body. Trip takedowns are another strength of his game.
Oliveira isn't the most technical grappler, but he has a few defined strengths on the mat. He excels from the top, with a forceful approach to ground striking, and has a gift for getting to the back in scrambles and getting to the top ride.
Betting Odds
Brooks -260, Oliveira +220
Prediction: This is a great matchup. Brooks is just a bit sharper everywhere, though Oliveira is more dangerous at range, and his physicality and size could give the American fits in the clinch. Eventually, Brooks' skill should be the difference, especially if he can get this to the ground. Brooks wins a 29-28 decision.
John Dodson vs. John Lineker
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Main Event: Bantamweights
John Dodson (18-7; 7-2 UFC) vs. John Lineker (28-7; 9-2 UFC)
A pair of former flyweights looking to make their mark at 135 pounds meet in a crackling main event. The bantamweight division is wide open right now, and a convincing win for either man could launch the victor into the conversation for a title shot against Dominick Cruz.
Dodson, a native of Albuquerque, New Mexico, won The Ultimate Fighter 14 as a bantamweight, and then fought seven times at 125 pounds in the aftermath. He won all of those bouts except his two title shots against Demetrious Johnson, neither of which was especially close. A win over Manny Gamburyan in his return to bantamweight last April got him started on the right foot.
Lineker repeatedly struggled to make the flyweight limit, but he has looked at home since moving back up to bantamweight. The Brazilian submitted Francisco Rivera, put a beating on Rob Font and then knocked out former top prospect Michael McDonald in July.
The American is one of the quickest, most explosive and athletic fighters in the UFC. His speed and power are off the charts and form the basis for his game, while crisp footwork and constant movement keep him in the center of the cage, where he can put those physical gifts to best use.
At his core, Dodson is a southpaw striker. He likes to set a long range and then uses his speed to blitz forward with a sequence of punches, usually shifting from southpaw to orthodox as he steps forward to help him cover the distance. If his opponent covers up or seems hurt, Dodson flurries and showcases excellent killer instinct.
These blitzes are his option A, but if his opponent chooses to pressure him, Dodson is happy to sit back and counter. He excels at finding small angles from which to land when his opponent leaps forward to cover the long range between them. Countering kicks with punches is another specialty.
The occasional kick or range-finding jab adds some variety, but Dodson's game is all about the crushing straight, overhand or uppercut left. Even right hooks feature only rarely in his arsenal.
The problem with this approach is offensive output. Dodson works in bursts, and he goes long stretches without throwing much of anything as he circles, cuts angles and then circles some more. Thirty seconds or even a full minute might pass without him throwing a single strike, and the goal of landing the perfect, fight-ending strike often distracts from the need to land enough to score points and win rounds.
A stout if not outstanding clinch fighter, Dodson has a preference for volleys of uppercuts on the inside. Some of the best takedown defense in MMA keeps Dodson standing and fighting at range, where he prefers to be. Only Johnson has succeeded in planting Dodson on the mat in his UFC career.
Dodson can hit the occasional double-leg takedown or trip as a change of pace, but he rarely looks to spend much time on the ground and generally lands a few strikes before getting back to his feet.
Lineker is a puncher, pure and simple. His power is his trademark, and he doesn't much care how he goes about planting his fists on the opponent's chin. Pressure forces unwilling opponents to engage; aggressive opponents eat counters; and brawlers find themselves in exchanges they're unlikely to win.
What unites that seemingly random approach is a complete lack of hesitation to throw. Whenever he sees an opening, no matter how small, Lineker pulls the trigger. He doesn't stop to wonder what the perfect shot would be, and he doesn't think twice; he just lets his punches go in long sequences that move between the body and head.
This approach isn't perfect: Lineker isn't a defensive mastermind, and he tends to get hit quite a bit. With that said, this suits his durability, relentlessness and utter lack of fear.
The Brazilian doesn't particularly care if he gets hit, and he's not going to get discouraged if he has to eat a shot or two or loses early exchanges. He knows that if he sticks to his game, then his power, pace and ability to wear his opponent down with work to the legs and body will eventually create real opportunities for him to finish with a heavy barrage of punches.
Since moving to American Top Team a few years ago, Lineker has made enormous improvements to the rest of his game. He's a much better defensive wrestler now; while not technically perfect, his low center of gravity and raw strength make him hard to get down. A sharp guillotine choke in transition can threaten opponents who shoot lazy takedowns as well.
Betting Odds
Dodson -125, Lineker +105
Prediction
This is a fantastic matchup between two similarly built but temperamentally opposite fighters.
Dodson's game is based around dictating space and then using his speed advantage to pick and choose a limited number of exchanges that favor his preferred slow pace, while Lineker's approach focuses on creating as many exchanges as possible to maximize his pace and chance of landing his power shots.
That's the fundamental question here: Can Dodson use his footwork and movement to slow the pace and volume, or will Lineker succeed in drawing Dodson into a firefight that might get him beat up but will favor him in the long run?
The latter seems more likely. Despite his preference for a slow pace, Dodson trusts his power, and if presented with the prospect of a hittable opponent, it will be hard to resist the urge to let his potent left hand fly early and often.
Dodson will probably win those exchanges in the first round or two, but Lineker can eat his power and wear him down to the body as the fight goes on if the American is willing to exchange. Dodson is durable in his own right, but eventually, the tide will turn if he allows himself to get drawn into Lineker's kind of fight.
Lineker takes a close 48-47 decision.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.
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