NFL Predictions Week 3: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

Big payouts exist in Week 3 NFL odds, should the underdogs pull off miracles.

The feat is not as silly as it sounds this early in the season. While the underdog San Francisco 49ers couldn't upend the Carolina Panthers in Week 2, the Minnesota Vikings took down the Green Bay Packers, and the Los Angeles Rams roughed up the Seattle Seahawks.

Such upsets don't ensure repeat performances by underdogs the following week, but somewhere a statistician has numbers that prove upsets seem more likely to strike in the early weeks while the league remains in flux.

With such a theme in mind, here is a look at the entire slate before we zoom in on some of the week's biggest underdogs.

NFL Week 3 Odds

Matchup	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Houston at New England (TNF)	HOU -2	41	HOU 24-14
Minnesota at Carolina	CAR -7	43	CAR 23-20
Detroit at Green Bay	GB -8	48	GB 28-25
Baltimore at Jacksonville	BAL -1	47	JAC 20-17
Arizona at Buffalo	ARI -4.5	47	ARI 24-20
Oakland at Tennessee	TEN -1	47	OAK 23-14
Cleveland at Miami	MIA -7	42.5	MIA 17-13
Washington at N.Y. Giants	NYG -4.5	47	NYG 30-27
Denver at Cincinnati	CIN -3.5	41	DEN 23-17
San Francisco at Seattle	SEA -10	40	SEA 24-23
L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay	TB -3.5	42	TB 28-24
N.Y. Jets at Kansas City	KC -3	43.5	KC 21-17
San Diego at Indianapolis	IND -3	52	SD 28-20
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia	PIT -5.5	46.5	PIT 24-23
Chicago at Dallas	DAL -4	45.5	DAL 30-17
Atlanta at New Orleans (MNF)	ATL -3.5	53.5	NO 33-30

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.

Minnesota at Carolina (-7)

This is actually one of the best lines bettors can tackle this week. 

The Panthers aren't beating the Vikings by a full touchdown.

The Vikings continue to have one of the best defenses in the league, having now held two opponents to 16 points or fewer. In fact, the Tennessee Titans scored more points than the aforementioned Packers—led by Aaron Rodgers, no less—did against the unit. 

So much for everything going up in flames when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater went down with an injury. The Vikings traded for Sam Bradford, and the veteran looked great in his debut against the Packers, throwing for 286 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

One of his touchdown passes said it all, via the NFL:

The Panthers will still find a way to win at home. Cam Newton and the rest of the team cleansed themselves of a Week 1 hiccup against the Denver Broncos by stomping all over the aforementioned underdog 49ers last week.

There exists one of the largest leaps possible between the 49ers and these Vikings, though. It looked questionable for the Vikings to give up so much to bring Bradford on board, but it is apparent after two weeks Minnesota is as much a contender as Carolina is.

The saving grace? Per ESPN.com's Ben Goessling, Adrian Peterson could miss weeks of action with a torn meniscus, so expect the upset bid to fall short.

Prediction: Panthers 23-20

Detroit at Green Bay (-8)

The Detroit Lions are another hefty underdog this week who can beat the spread in simple fashion, giving bettors an easy avenue to bankroll-building.

The Lions don't look like much of a respectable underdog coming off a one-point loss to Tennessee last week. But things go out the window in an NFC North matchup like this, especially with the way Rodgers has played to start the season and the fact the two encounters between these teams last year were decided by a maximum of four points.

About Rodgers. He has not looked anything close to himself, as NFL Research pointed out:

This isn't a tough journey to track—Rodgers lost star wideout Jordy Nelson last year and did not have much of a run game behind him. He had to improvise on many plays because he couldn't trust the guys around him to get it done in the base offense.

Rodgers is doing much of the same this year even through Nelson has returned and the ground game looks better. He admitted it is a process after the loss to the Vikings.

"I don't think this is anything to get super crazy about," Rodgers said, according to ESPN.com. "It's a tough opponent, a division opponent. They're a good football team. They've still got to come to our place later in the season. Hopefully we're in a position to play for something then."

Granted, playing at home leads one to believe the Packers will win outright. But Matthew Stafford (four touchdowns to one interception) has played well with the fresh wide receiving duo of Marvin Jones and Golden Tate. Knowing the Packers well, Stafford will find a way to keep the game close like he has in each of the past two weeks.

Prediction: Packers 28-25

San Francisco at Seattle (-10)

This is a much better underdog line than most people realize.

Yes, the Panthers thumped the 49ers last week as expected. But San Francisco started the season with a 28-0 victory against the Los Angeles Rams, and quarterback Blaine Gabbert has found new life under head coach Chip Kelly, passing for 413 yards and accounting for four total touchdowns.

This is also a divisional encounter, and while it wasn't close last year, the 49ers (though deep in the throes of a rebuild) are much improved. Plus, the Seahawks don't look great—Russell Wilson on a bum ankle couldn't lead a touchdown drive last weekend in a 9-3 loss to those Rams and didn't look much better in an odd 12-10 escape of the Miami Dolphins to open the season.

Despite this, Kelly and the 49ers continue to treat Wilson like the threat he can be, via the team on Twitter:

By virtue of a strong defense, Seattle can pull this one out at home. After all, the unit has allowed all of 19 total points (one touchdown) to start the season, and only one opposing rusher has breached the 50-yard mark.

Kelly's offense looks better with Gabbert guiding it, but the players in the backfield and on the outside aren't dynamic enough to consistently win before the Seattle rush hits home.

Look for this one to have a few surprises from an offensive standpoint on both sides of the ball, with Seattle eventually emerging as the winner. But San Francisco, the biggest underdog of the week, isn't losing by double digits.

Prediction: Seahawks 24-23 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.