With 2 Losses, Is Notre Dame's Playoff Dream All but Over?

They gave it a good run.

But the No. 18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish's comeback effort fell short in a 36-28 defeat to the 12th-ranked Michigan State Spartans on Saturday night in South Bend, Indiana.

The loss was doubly painful for Brian Kelly's team. Barring complete and utter chaos, Notre Dame's 2016 season will not include a College Football Playoff berth.

The Irish opened the campaign with a stunning double-overtime loss at Texas. One shortcoming—as several teams, including both previous champions (2014 Ohio State and 2015 Alabama) have proved—does not eliminate a program from contention, however.

Loss No. 2, though, is a serious problem for a playoff dream. For Notre Dame, it was also a product of its biggest weakness.

Year	No. 1 Seed	No. 2 Seed	No. 3 Seed	No. 4 Seed
2014	Alabama (12-1)	Oregon (12-1)	Florida State (13-0)	Ohio State (12-1)
2015	Clemson (13-0)	Alabama (12-1)	Michigan State (12-1)	Oklahoma (11-1)

Back in April, per Rivals, Kelly said he believed the Irish would play the defense necessary to chase the four-team tournament.

The statement was bold considering Notre Dame lost six NFL-bound defenders from a unit that ranked 45th in the country last season. As a result, the team was certain to find itself in a few tight battles in which the defense would need to make a play.

Just three games into the season, the unit—and the coaching staff—has faltered twice in two chances. The Irish rode that exhausting roller coaster to a heartbreaking end Saturday night.

The Notre Dame defense isn't entirely to blame, but a dreadful finish overshadowed a respectable start.

Early on, the front seven performed well opposite Michigan State's physical style of play. The Irish limited powerful running back L.J. Scott to just 30 yards on his first 10 carries and trailed only 15-7 at the break.

However, the unit only contained the Spartans for so long.

Gerald Holmes started to find running lanes behind a much-improved offensive line after halftime. The Irish often hit Scott in or near the backfield, but Holmes regularly managed to gain a few yards before first contact.

And then, the junior running back broke the game open. After Holmes pounded in a three-yard score, DeShone Kizer threw an interception. Another possession later, Holmes scampered 73 yards untouched to give Michigan State a 36-7 lead.

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Kizer accounted for three touchdowns during the final 18 minutes, but the offense went three-and-out when it had a chance to even the score on its final possession. The Spartans then converted on 3rd-and-7 thanks to a coverage breakdown in the Irish secondary.

When it mattered most, Notre Dame didn't play the defense necessary to continue chasing the College Football Playoff.

Yes, the Irish still have a chance. College football is known and loved for its unpredictability, so who knows what will happen?

Maybe LSU or Tennessee stuns Alabama. Perhaps the top three programs from both the ACC and Big Ten beat each other up, while no dominant squad emerges from the Big 12 or Pac-12. Sure, Notre Dame could return to the conversation.

But that hypothetical assumes the Irish rattle off a 9-0 finish to the season. After watching Texas and Michigan State exploit a young and tattered defense, it is unlikely Notre Dame survives against Stanford, Miami and USC, among others.

A 10-2 record was expected heading into the year. But the Irish weren't supposed to have two losses by Sept. 17.

Notre Dame's fleeting glimmer of hope is further weakened by the playoff selection committee's protocol.

"When circumstances ... indicate that teams are comparable," the official site says, conference championships must be considered. The panel also weighs other factors, including "outcomes of common opponents."

The Irish can't win a conference as an independent, and they almost certainly cannot present a better argument than the eventual Big 12 and Big Ten winners because of losses to Texas and MSU. Both leagues will likely have a champion that defeated one of those programs—or its winners could be those two programs.

With victories over Stanford and USC, Notre Dame might clip the Pac-12 representative—but only if that program has three losses. Defeating Miami, Virginia Tech and Duke won't equate to an edge over the ACC, and the Irish don't play an SEC team.

Instead, Notre Dame will spend the remainder of the 2016 campaign frustrated by what could've happened and what could've gone differently. The fact is these results won't change.

"We can cry all we want about what we didn't do," Kelly said following the loss, according to Tyler James of the South Bend Tribune, "but we gotta start doing it."

The problem is, for the Irish and their playoff dream, it's already too late.

All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from NCAA.com, cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report college football writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.