Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Johnson: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC Fight Night 94 is headlined by a top-10 ranked lightweight battle between No. 7-ranked contender Dustin Poirier (20-4) and No. 10-ranked Michael Johnson (16-10). Poirier is 4-0 since returning to the lightweight division and a win over Johnson should elevate him into the title hunt, while Johnson looks to end a two-fight skid. This is a high-level, high-octane matchup that showcases the depth of the 155-pound division.
Which lightweight contender will walk out of Texas with eyes toward title contention?
Striking
1 of 5
If you're a fan of stand-up battles with a lot of strikes, then you should probably start getting excited about the main event on Saturday.
Per FightMetric, Poirier averages 4.82 significant strikes landed per minute and Johnson clocks in 3.89 of his own. They sling leather.
Johnson's striking has improved greatly over the years. He has been involved in battles with other outstanding strikers such as Nate Diaz, Edson Barboza and Tony Ferguson (2-1 in those fights). But he will be at a disadvantage simply due to the style of striking Poirier brings into the cage.
Diaz touched Johnson up, but his "Stockton Slap" style has an accumulation effect. It allowed Johnson to generate offense of his own as well. Poirier's striking is more dynamic and vicious. Poirier can flip a switch and reel off a fight-ending combination with power.
Johnson has power of his own, but it isn't as stunning as Poirier's. Versatility is also a feather in Poirier's cap here. He gets a considerable edge on the feet, but Johnson is good enough to hold his own. It will just be in a losing effort if the fight takes place standing for the entire 15 minutes.
Edge: Poirier
Grappling
2 of 5
Poirier has underrated wrestling, but that is in large part due to how he blends it with his striking. In this matchup, it is a clear edge toward Johnson.
Johnson has become a striker in recent outings because he enjoys going for the knockout, having exciting fights and appeasing the masses. After back-to-back losses, he may enter Saturday with a more conservative game plan.
The Blackzilians' team member has exceptional level changes that will give Poirier fits—especially against the cage. Even if unsuccessful, the repeated attempts could frustrate his American Top Team opponent.
Attempting takedowns will also help Johnson even the playing field on the feet. Poirier will be forced to react and defend on feints, allowing Johnson to use his boxing to greater effect.
Edge: Johnson
Submissions
3 of 5
If Johnson does score a takedown, he will not be out of danger. Poirier is slick on the canvas.
He works better from top, but he can throw up a triangle or armbar very quickly. He has quick hips to explode into a submission attempt.
Johnson has some submission skills, but they are nowhere near the level of what Poirier brings into the cage.
Keep an eye out for Poirier's d'arce choke. It's a favorite technique of his, and, with Johnson's wrestling, it could come into play. If Johnson shoots in from too far outside, Poirier can sprawl out on top and lace up the choke once Johnson begins to stand up.
Edge: Poirier
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factors
4 of 5
Johnson's X-Factor: Cutting off the Cage
Johnson's biggest friend in this fight will be the fence. Closing the distance gives him better opportunities to score with takedowns or simply to stifle Poirier up against the cage. An inability to cut off the Octagon will give Poirier the space he needs to have high success rates with his takedown defense.
He needs to give Poirier the least amount of space possible on Saturday.
Poirier's X-Factor: Confidence
The ATT product is riding high on a four-fight win streak, but he can't let his confidence turn to cockiness. Johnson is a real threat.
Poirier has been known to do a bit of trash talk and taunting in the cage. If he drops his hands, he may eat a power right and taste the canvas. Being confident is key in MMA, but being cocky will put you in the arms of the ringside physician as you wake up.
Prediction
5 of 5
This is a very good matchup and a difficult fight to pick.
Johnson may have dropped his prior two outings, but they were to upper echelon competition. And he has proven to be able to beat top-end lightweights as well. The result of this fight will all be about who can implement their strategy the best.
I tend to lean towards Poirier.
The quickness of his combinations will give Johnson issues. It will force him to seek a takedown without setting it up properly, and, when he does, it will be defended easily. It'll happen a few times during the fight. Eventually, Poirier will see a chance to lock up the d'arce choke.
Game over.
Prediction: Poirier defeats Johnson via submission in the second round.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
