Denny Hamlin Ends NASCAR Regular Season with Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing
When all the smoke had cleared and all the fans had drifted out to the parking lots, not much had changed on Saturday night under the Richmond International Raceway lights.
The 16 drivers who would have made the Chase for the Sprint Cup—had the Federated Auto Parts 400 not been run—were the ones who actually qualified. Denny Hamlin won. Ten of the top 11 finishers made the Chase—sixth-place Kasey Kahne was the exception—and Hamlin and third-place finisher Martin Truex Jr. combined to lead 382 of the 407 laps.
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The yellow caution flag waved a ridiculous number of times (16) and used up a ridiculous number of laps (89). Unsurprisingly, Hamlin was exultant about the victory at his home track—Chesterfield, Virginia is only a few miles away—and prospects for a championship that has thus far eluded the 35-year-old driver.
Hamlin said afterward:
"I said (before) that we were, like, an 8-1/2 on momentum. I don't believe in 10, so nine, 9-1/2, would be optimum. I said, if we won this race, we would go to a nine. Hard for me not to say it's a 9-1/2 at this point. It's a great team effort here. We've got everything going for us. A total team effort—just everyone at JGR (Joe Gibbs Racing) building these fast, fast cars. Can't thank everyone enough.
"
Now, everything changes. By standings that mattered until the regular season ended at RIR, Kevin Harvick, the points leader, had 876 points. Chris Buescher, who made the Chase by winning the latter race at Pocono, had 375.
| Driver | Points | Wins | Poles | Average Finish |
| Kyle Busch | 2,012 | 4 | 2 | 13.1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 2,012 | 4 | 1 | 9.7 |
| Denny Hamlin | 2,009 | 3 | 1 | 12.2 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 2,006 | 2 | 1 | 15.3 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 2,006 | 2 | 3 | 13.1 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2,006 | 2 | 0 | 8.5 |
| Matt Kenseth | 2,006 | 2 | 0 | 15.4 |
| Carl Edwards | 2,006 | 2 | 5 | 12.7 |
| Joey Logano | 2,003 | 1 | 3 | 11.7 |
| Tony Stewart | 2,003 | 1 | 0 | 17.2 |
| Kyle Larson | 2,003 | 1 | 0 | 15.5 |
| Chris Buescher | 2,003 | 1 | 0 | 26.7 |
| Kurt Busch | 2,003 | 1 | 2 | 12.1 |
| Jamie McMurray | 2,000 | 0 | 0 | 15.0 |
| Chase Elliott | 2,000 | 0 | 2 | 15.2 |
| Austin Dillon | 2,000 | 0 | 1 | 14.7 |
The four-round Chase begins with reigning champion Kyle Busch and 2012 champion Brad Keselowski, each with four victories, leading Buescher and four others by nine points and the three winless Chase qualifiers—Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott and Jamie McMurray—by 12.
The difference between a nine-point deficit and a shortfall of 382 is rather statistically significant. The 16 drivers are to be reduced to 12 after three races, eight after six and four after nine. Those four will begin the final race in Homestead, Florida, all even. Resistance to drama is futile. It is programmed into the software.
"I hope the fans like it," Truex Jr. said. "I think, for competitors, the amount of intensity is just insane. So I would imagine the fans at home, especially the hard-core fans pulling for their guy, their team—it's got to be really fun for them, especially when their teams move on or make the cut."
If terms such as "sweepstakes," "lottery," "raffle" and "turkey shoot" come to mind, it's not because they are wholly inappropriate. Timing is important. A win after a driver has been eliminated won't get him back in and winning the championship requires at least a modest amount of luck.
Comparing his prospects to a year ago, Kyle Busch said, "I kind of feel about the same, actually. I feel like we are right even with where we were last year, kind of doing the same things. But there are other guys who are better than us, so we're just going to have to figure out how to race them and out-finish them when we need to."
His JGR teammate Carl Edwards said, "There are two sides to it. I feel like I have the best teammates in the world, and the other side is I have to beat them."
"I guess the thing to be most excited about is the speed of our cars," Matt Kenseth said, "and how good my teammates are running."
Only Joe Gibbs (four teams in the Chase), Roger Penske (two) and Chip Ganassi (2) have perfect attendance. Eight Chevrolets, five Toyotas and three Fords made it. Seven drivers in this year's Chase have won championships before. Jimmie Johnson (6) and Tony Stewart (3) have won it more than once. Kenseth's title (2003) and one of Stewart's (2002) occurred before the Chase format existed.
The last race before the Chase can be a spectacle of unforeseen change and drama. This one wasn't it. Two drivers dominated it, and that left others to skirmish, sometimes childishly, in their wake. At the end, Kenseth was mad at Keselowski, and Ryan Newman, who failed to make the Chase, livid at Stewart.
The anger did not likely end in Richmond. Whether by the settling of scores or the birth of new hostilities, the Chase will bring with it inevitable contretemps and mayhem.
Johnson once won a record five championships (2006-10) in a row. He's won one (2013) of the five Chases since. A bit past the halfway point Saturday night, with Johnson en route to 11th place, NBC Sports' Jeff Burton opined:
"This does not look like a Chad Knaus (Johnson's crew chief and swami) No. 48 team. They just don't have the speed. They seem unorganized. They sure don't seem ready for this Chase that is about to start.
"
The beauty of the Chase is that a slumping Johnson has the opportunity—by hook, crook, cool move or act of God—to get his act together. The record for Cup championships is seven, jointly held by Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt.
"We've got to get better," Johnson said. "There's no doubt about it. Inside of our walls at Hendrick Motorsports, we know we're getting better. We know we're bringing a better product to the track. We're showing it at times...and that will lead to opportunities and, hopefully, the big trophy at the end of the year."
Kyle Busch said it "doesn't matter if you're the first car or the last car, as long as you get through to the next [round], you've got an opportunity to keep racing for the championship. That's what it's all about."
The stage is set. The mood for the 16 who race for a championship—as 24 others race merely for a trophy and some righteous bucks—is relaxed in the way of calm before a storm.
"I think the batteries are charged," Joey Logano said. "We will show up relaxed and enjoy it. That's when our team is at its best, when we are having fun. Obviously, there will be plenty of pressure and plenty of people cracking."
The Chase for the Sprint Cup begins next Sunday, September 18, in Joliet, Illinois, at Chicagoland Speedway.
The pressure cracking is just a weekend away.
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All quotes are taken from NASCAR media, team and manufacturer sources unless otherwise noted.
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