10 Most Improbable Breakout Sports Stars
One of sports' best, yet most maddening, qualities is its consistent ability to leave even diehard fans scratching their heads in bewilderment.
"Where did this guy come from?" It's a question viewers from every sport will ask multiple times every season. For all the research done by scouts and stat gurus, some players simply defy the odds and shatter all reasonable expectations.
With apologies to Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, Steve Nash and Randy Johnson, this list focuses exclusively on recent breakout performers. Most of them have penned a rags-to-riches story over the past year. Others have fortified an earlier breakout over a full season, and a select couple have evolved from solid to superstar.
Let's break down sports' most improbable risers while gauging their sustainability going forward.
Who's Next?
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An improbable breakout wouldn't truly be improbable if anyone could predict it. Yet there are enough signs to envision these players' stocks skyrocketing within the year.
Bojan Bogdanovic, SG, Brooklyn Nets
Somebody has to score for the Brooklyn Nets. Before representing Croatia in the 2016 Summer Olympics, Bojan Bogdanovic averaged 15.1 points per game in the second half.
With nobody else around, the 27-year-old will have every opportunity to open eyes as Brooklyn's premier perimeter scorer.
Robbie Ray, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Despite his 4.46 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, Robbie Ray has recorded the second-most strikeouts per nine innings (11.30) behind Jose Fernandez. The Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw has accrued double-digit punchouts in four second-half starts, thus announcing his bid as a major 2017 breakout candidate.
Tajae Sharpe, WR, Tennessee Titans
Drafted with the No. 140 overall pick this year, Tajae Sharpe worked his way up the Tennessee Titans depth chart in training camp. Teammate Andre Johnson praised the rookie wide receiver to ESPN.com's Paul Kuharsky.
"Tajae doesn't look like a rookie, he looks like a guy that's been around in this league for a little while," Johnson said. "The way he runs routes, he's faster than he looks. He makes plays. I think this year will be pretty big for him."
Sharpe is well-positioned to outperform all the other wideouts who were selected rounds (and days) before him.
Gary Barnidge, TE, Cleveland Browns
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Gary Barnidge had more catches last year (79) than targets in four full seasons (70). He had never reeled in more than 13 receptions or 242 yards in a season before exploding for 1,049 yards in 2015.
A 30-year-old tight end transforming from a no-name blocker to a premier offensive weapon and top fantasy pick? That's the definition of improbable. Any outsider who claims to have had him on his or her radar last summer is lying.
Because of his meteoric rise, he is also receiving attention for his film obsession off the field. As he told The Ringer's Kevin Clark, he shares his passion with fans and teammates by funding weekly move nights.
“Growing up, athletes weren’t accessible,” Barnidge said. “You could go to the stadium and see them. There’s social media now, so guys are accessible, but I wanted to take it a step further and I wanted to enjoy something on a personal level with fans.”
Will his Hollywood tale end happily every after? While he played his best with Josh McCown at quarterback, a resurgent Robert Griffin III could represent an upgrade for Barnidge and the Cleveland Browns. He may see fewer targets once Josh Gordon returns, but expect the tight end to remain a vital red-zone option.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington
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Do not make a "You like that!" reference. Do not make...
The same year Washington sold the farm to land Robert Griffin III, it also drafted quarterback Kirk Cousins in the fourth round. Given all the capital renounced to make Griffin the franchise signal-caller, it seemed odd to use more resources on his backup.
When tapped into action, the understudy struggled mightily. In his first three seasons, Cousins completed 59.0 percent of his passes with 19 interceptions over 14 games. So what in the world was Washington thinking when naming him the starter last season?
The questionable decision paid off wonderfully. He completed an NFL-high 69.8 percent of his passes for 4,166 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. He got better as the season transpired, tossing 23 touchdowns to three picks over Washington's final 10 games.
The team won seven of those contests, claiming the NFC East crown with four consecutive victories to end 2015. Yes, Washington fans were quite fond of that success.
For Cousins to sustain his breakout this season, he must continue last year's careful ways. Heading into 2015 with a ghastly 4.7 interception percentage, he sliced the rate down to 2.0. Look for some regression to the mean—Washington hedged its bets by franchise-tagging him—but he made the improvements necessary to serve as a solid starting quarterback.
Brian Dozier, 2B, Minnesota Twins
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Brian Dozier has always been a good, perhaps underrated baseball player. One can also point to his annually increasing home run tally as a sign of a pending power outburst.
But nobody could have seen these last two months coming.
The Minnesota Twins second baseman entered the All-Star break batting .246/.335/.450 with 14 homers, customary numbers for the 29-year-old. He has since transformed into the reincarnation of Barry Bonds, hitting .323/.367/.755 with 25 home runs in 52 games. He has gone deep 22 times over the past 37 games and seven times in seven September contests.
With 39 homers on the season—second in the majors behind Mark Trumbo's 41—Dozier is four dingers shy of setting the all-time, single-season record for a second baseman. This is a guy who hit 19 throughout his minor league career and six in his first 84 MLB games.
He can't keep hitting like this forever. No mortal can. Yet Dozier should break the record and continue his ascension into a feared slugger who can crank 30 to 35 long balls a season.
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
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Devonta Freeman wasn't the Atlanta Falcons' top running back to start 2015. Rookie Tevin Coleman commenced his career with 80 yards on 20 handoffs in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. He fractured his ribs the following week.
By the time he returned three weeks later, Freeman stole the job. The FSU alum seized the opportunity by scoring three touchdowns apiece in consecutive games with 342 combined total yards.
The second-year pro fortified the Falcons backfield and ascended into a fantasy football hero, tallying 1,639 yards and 14 touchdowns. He fueled their 6-1 start but ultimately could not halt their late collapse.
Freeman cooled off as the season progressed, registering 352 rushing yards on 112 caries (3.14 yards per rush) over Atlanta's final seven games. Coleman, meanwhile, compiled 4.5 yards per carry as a rookie. He should receive a larger share of the team's backfield workload this season, while Freeman gains efficiency, but loses volume, in a smaller role.
Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs
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Clayton Kershaw hasn't pitched enough innings to qualify, so who instead leads the National League in ERA? Perhaps Madison Bumgarner? Or maybe Max Scherzer? How about Jose Fernandez or Noah Syndergaard?
Here's a hint: He plays for the Chicago Cubs. So it's either Jake Arrieta or Jon Lester. Both aces wield ERAs below 3.00 for the NL Central powerhouse.
Wait, what's that? The header, picture of Kyle Hendricks and a quick Google search gave away that it's Kyle Hendricks? Shucks.
As someone who infrequently hits 90 on the radar gun, the righty has never stood out as more than a decent starter. Last year, he offered a 3.95 ERA over 180 solid innings. This season, he has designs on the NL Cy Young Award on the strength of a 2.07 ERA.
Those fluent in sabermetrics, however, would argue that he's the same pitcher as last year. Despite the major ERA drop, his 3.37 fielding independent pitching—a metric that strips away defense to measure a pitcher's individual performance—is nearly identical to last year's 3.36 clip.
This suggests two things. First, he was poised to take a major step forward in 2016. But also, his misfortune has now traversed into the other extreme, and he wouldn't factor into the Cy Young discussion without considerable luck.
Then again, Hendricks has helped his defense make easy outs by generating soft contact on an MLB-best 25.7 percent of batted balls. Going forward, everyone should expect an ERA closer to the mid-threes, which still makes him a valuable No. 3 starter behind Arrieta and Lester. Just don't expect him to frequent the Cy Young discussion next September.
Daniel Murphy, 2B, Washington Nationals
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Last October was a mirage. There's no way Daniel Murphy—the same Daniel Murphy who set a new career high with 14 home runs earlier in the season—can ever top belting seven homers in nine National League playoff games.
At least that's what the New York Mets and any rational onlooker thought. Not trusting the veteran contact hitter to carry over his power surge, the reigning NL champions let him go. Their division rival, the Washington Nationals, scooped up the biggest offseason steal.
It turns out the playoff fireworks were legit. He has shattered last year's personal best with 25 dingers. while hitting .345/.387/.595 with a 155 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) second in the NL behind MVP front-runner Kris Bryant.
Bryant and Corey Seager deserve more recognition for their superior defense, but don't be surprised if Murphy takes home the hardware. He's in the hunt for a batting title while leading the NL in slugging percentage, and only Nolan Arenado has driven in more runs.
The 31-year-old second baseman is also a major reason why the Nationals hold a commanding eight-game division lead over his former club, whom he has tortured all year with seven homers and a 1.204 OPS over 21 head-to-head meetings. Bryant could get punished (unfairly) because his team is too good to label him most valuable.
Nevertheless, Murphy has evolved from an above-average gap hitter to one of baseball's most decorated sluggers. He has incredibly done it all while only striking out in 10.2 percent of his plate appearances. This will almost certainly go down as his career year, but his days of accruing single-digit homers are over.
Matt Murray, G, Pittsburgh Penguins
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Matt Murray, who played 13 games during his rookie campaign, finished the year hoisting the Stanley Cup.
After spending the season as Marc-Andre Fleury's reserve, the 22-year-old goalie was forced into action when the veteran suffered a concussion. Unfazed by the spotlight, Murray allowed 2.08 goals per game with a .923 save percentage.
The Penguins, who won nine of his 13 regular-season starts, went 15-6 in postseason play with the neophyte shielding the net. In the Stanley Cup Final, he limited the San Jose Sharks' high-powered attack to 11 scores during the six-game series.
He's clearly their future goalie, but how will the Penguins allocate playing time with Fleury returning for his job? The 12-year veteran holds an illustrious track record and several franchise records, so Murray's playoff heroics might not be enough to oust an icon.
Look for the newly minted champion to slide back into a more frequently used understudy who will eventually assume the mantle permanently. Before then, he'll have a chance to prove himself in the World Cup of Hockey.
Artemi Panarin, LW, Chicago Blackhawks
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The entire NHL whiffed on Artemi Panarin, an undrafted rookie who won the Calder Trophy over No. 1 pick Connor McDavid and all other league newcomers.
After spending five seasons in the KHL, the Russian winger finally earned a contract with the Chicago Blackhawks. He immediately rewarded them by tallying 30 goals and 47 assists with a plus-eight net rating.
Only eight players, led by teammate and Hart Trophy winner Patrick Kane, padded the scoring sheets with more points. Panarin also contributed seven points in as many playoff games.
Th 24-year-old quickly formed a dominant duo with Kane, who benefited just as much from Panarin as the novice did from the MVP. With 46 goals, he topped his previous career high by 16.
Chicago uncovered a hidden gem who should continue to run roughshod on the NHL alongside Kane and Co.
Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Apparently leaving the Mets is the key to success. Like Murphy, Justin Turner has reached new heights by harnessing his power away from Flushing.
Three years ago, the Mets non-tendered Turner after he homered eight times over three seasons. He offered some value as a versatile infielder off the bench, but he was seen as little else.
Then he went to the Los Angeles Dodgers and batted .340/.404/.493. Since a .404 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) in only 322 plate appearances fueled it, 2014 doesn't count as his full-fledged breakout.
It set the table for last year, when he hit .294/.370/.491 with a career-high 16 homers over 439 plate appearances. That's when the jokes piled up about how the injury-riddled Mets could sure use someone like Turner.
While his average (.269) and on-base percentage (.336) have dropped this season, he is legitimizing his rise to stardom by succeeding in an everyday gig. He has also belted 25 long balls and saved the Dodgers eight runs at third base, resulting in an elite 4.8 fWAR.
The 31-year-old has now passed every hurdle necessary to receive star billing. It's time to stop questioning whether or not he's the real deal.
Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat
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Two years after escaping the NBA Development League, Hassan Whiteside is now a max-contract player.
The center celebrated his first full NBA campaign by signing a four-year, $98-million deal to stay with the Miami Heat. That's $1.3 million for every career start (75). As noted by HoopsHype, he raised his salary by over 2,000 percent.
He burst on the scene in 2014-15, averaging 17.8 points, 15.2 rebounds and 3.9 blocks per 36 minutes. Given a larger role last year, he recorded 14.2 points on a 60.6 field-goal percentage with 11.8 boards per game. Nobody came close to his league-leading 3.7 rejections.
The energetic big man finished with a 25.7 player efficiency rating (PER), which ranked seventh and above James Harden and Anthony Davis. While the metric favors big men who maximize their high-percentage looks around the rim, no center rated higher.
Only Whiteside can impede his rise to stardom. Whistled for 11 technical fouls over his career, the 27-year-old is often chastised for his quick temper and immaturity. TNT analyst Charles Barkley also questioned his consistency last season, per Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman, claiming he "shows up once a week."
With Dwyane Wade gone and Chris Bosh's future uncertain, Miami is now Whiteside's team. That will lead to monster numbers but not team success.
Note: All advanced MLB stats courtesy of FanGraphs. Advanced NBA stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
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