Predicting When Brock Lesnar Will Make Next Appearance on WWE Programming

Brock Lesnar won't return from hibernation to wreak havoc on WWE until the tail end of 2016.

The company will delay The Beast Incarnate's arrival until a marquee show is near in order to kick off Lesnar's burgeoning rivalry with SmackDown commissioner Shane McMahon in earnest. History says Lesnar's schedule slows in the fall. And WWE is sure to save whatever it has planned for the powerhouse and McMahon until the lights are brighter.

Lesnar last stood on the WWE stage at SummerSlam when he throttled Randy Orton, soaking the mat with blood.

The pay-per-view's main event ended with Orton lying lifeless on the canvas, with doctors tending to his bleeding gash and Lesnar still smashing his foe after the bell. That was The Beast Incarnate's final statement before his latest hiatus. The next night on Raw, Lesnar wasn't around.

Credit: WWE.com

It was time once again for the part-timer to step aside until called upon.

Those final chaotic moments at SummerSlam offered a clear hint at what WWE has in mind for Lesnar when he returns. Officials, including McMahon, tried to stop Lesnar from assaulting Orton. 

Lesnar responded with violence, hitting an F-5 on the SmackDown commissioner.

Credit: WWE.com

Shane's sister, Raw commissioner Stephanie McMahon, fined Lesnar a paltry $500 for his actions, as WWE.com announced. The storyline punitive action allowed the conversation about Lesnar's attack to continue even without him around.

In a backstage interview, Shane McMahon later said that the issues with him and Lesnar were "far from over":

All that smells like the beginning of a McMahon-Lesnar feud, whether the commissioner sends in a wrestler as a proxy for him or fights The Beast Incarnate himself. Either way, that's too big of a match to land on Backlash or another lesser PPV.

WWE will want to wait for an event as rich with history as the Royal Rumble for that collision. 

And Lesnar is often not around for a good while after SummerSlam. He has averaged four months between that event and his next bout.

SummerSlam Year	Opponent	Event	Time Between Matches
2012	Triple H	WrestleMania XXIX	8 months
2013	Big Show	Royal Rumble 2014	5 months
2014	John Cena	Night of Champions 2014	1 month
2015	Big Show	WWE Live from MSG	2 months

Lesnar's post-SummerSlam turnaround has been quicker in the last two years, but he was already in the middle of a rivalry each time.

He and John Cena collided at Night of Champions to provide the babyface an opportunity at redemption after Lesnar dethroned him. The Beast Incarnate feasted on Big Show last October as a warm-up for his Hell in a Cell battle against Undertaker. That followed a controversial, confusing finish at SummerSlam 2015 where it looked as if Lesnar should have won, but the referee didn't see The Deadman tap out.

This year, Lesnar's story with McMahon is only in the preamble stage.

WWE can take its time with it. The seeds it planted can grow over the next several months.

But why choose the Royal Rumble over Survivor Series, which has been around since 1987? The company hasn't used any of Lesnar's limited appearances on that show. 

He hasn't competed at Survivor Series since 2003, according to CageMatch.net. Meanwhile, he has stepped into the ring for the last three editions of the Royal Rumble.

That's likely when he and Shane-O-Mac will clash. Should Lesnar obliterate the smaller man, it will help paint him as a monster and create momentum for him ahead of his WrestleMania showdown.

With that in mind, it's not likely we'll see Lesnar on WWE TV until a few weeks before the Rumble. WWE will set up that narrative, as it is doing now, without his presence. He can be fined and suspended; McMahon can look to punish him far more severely than his sister did.

Then The Beast Incarnate will come storming in with his fangs bared as the Royal Rumble hype commences.