The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 93: Arlovski vs. Barnett
The UFC heads to Hamburg, Germany, for the first time with a show on its Fight Pass platform this Saturday, September 3. This will be the UFC's fifth show in Germany, a market to which it has devoted sporadic attention since its first show there in 2009.
In the main event, veteran heavyweights Josh Barnett and Andrei Arlovski will put their combined 36 years of MMA experience to use in an excellent matchup that's still relevant to the top of the division. Both fighters are coming off losses—two, in Arlovski's case—and badly need a win to stay among the elite.
A pair of light heavyweight bouts adds additional interest to the event. In the co-main event, two-time title challenger Alexander Gustafsson takes on Poland's Jan Blachowicz in a get-back-on-track fight for the Swede, while Ilir Latifi gets a shot at high-level competition as he takes on Ryan Bader.
After that, however, the quality of the card drops off drastically. The matchups are fun, especially a bantamweight fight between Brazil's Leandro Issa and rising Frenchman Taylor Lapilus, but there's nothing that much affects the top of any division.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Prelims, Part 1
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Lightweights
Rustam Khabilov (19-3; 5-2 UFC) vs. Leandro Silva (19-4-1, 1 N/C; 3-3, 1 N/C UFC)
An excellent lightweight bout between Russia's Khabilov and Brazil's Silva gets things started. Khabilov had a rough two-fight stretch in which he lost first to Benson Henderson and then Adriano Martins, but has rebounded by taking decisions from Norman Parke and Chris Wade. Silva dropped a tight decision against Jason Saggo in June, which snapped a two-fight winning streak.
Khabilov is a great athlete and has real talent in every phase. He hits crazy suplexes, throws and trips in the clinch, packs vicious power in his hands and has a nice arsenal of spinning kicks to boot. On the downside, however, he doesn't throw much volume and lapses into long periods of inactivity.
Silva is a big, well-rounded journeyman who can do a bit of everything. On the feet, he has a potent kicking game, while he's a solid offensive wrestler and control artist on the mat.
Prediction: Khabilov is much more physically gifted and has a technical edge in every phase. There's a chance that Silva might outwork him, but it's more likely that Khabilov takes a decision.
Middleweights
Scott Askham (14-2; 2-2 UFC) vs. Jack Hermansson (13-2; 0-0 UFC)
England's Askham takes on Sweden's Hermansson in a solid middleweight bout. Askham has alternated wins and losses in his UFC career, knocking out Chris Dempsey in February after dropping a decision to Krzysztof Jotko. Hermansson, who was a well-regarded prospect a few years ago before losing a pair of fights in Bellator, has beaten high-level competition on the regional scene throughout Europe.
Askham is a rangy kickboxer at 6'3" and puts his height to good use with a steady diet of slapping kicks at range. He's awkward, though, and doesn't throw as much as he should. While competent in the clinch, Askham can be controlled against the fence, and he's not much of a wrestler. He's aggressive from his back, though, and has a nice sweep game.
Hermansson is mostly a striker with a strange but effective style based around constant movement, stance-switching and a heavy reliance on the jab. He's dangerous when he sits down on his punches, though. The occasional takedown adds another dimension to his game.
Prediction: Askham is a marginal favorite at minus-120, but Hermansson is a more active and more polished, if unorthodox, striker with the wrestling to plant the Englishman on his back. Hermansson wins a back-and-forth decision.
Heavyweights
Jarjis Danho (6-1, 1 N/C; 0-1 UFC) vs. Christian Colombo (8-1; 0-0 UFC)
Syrian-born German Danho takes on Denmark's Colombo in a bottom-tier heavyweight bout. Danho had a rough UFC debut against the veteran Daniel Omielanczuk, but he's a promising prospect. Colombo has a background in kickboxing and has beaten some veterans on the European scene.
It's hard to tell what to make of the Dane, as there's no recent video of him available. He looks like a competent if plodding striker with great size and some power, though. Danho is an immense specimen with great size, strength and power, but his skills are raw and he relies heavily on his physical gifts.
Prediction: It's hard to say much here, but Danho looks to be more gifted. Without any real confidence, the pick is Danho by first-round knockout.
Bantamweights
Taylor Lapilus (10-2; 2-1 UFC) vs. Leandro Issa (13-5; 2-2 UFC)
Rising French talent Lapilus takes on Brazilian veteran Issa in a well-matched bantamweight scrap. Lapilus won his first two bouts in the UFC, but came up short as a late replacement against Erik Perez last November. Issa hasn't fought since a decision loss to Iuri Alcantara in August 2015, which snapped a two-fight winning streak.
Lapilus is a smooth, talented striker. The southpaw moves consistently through the cage, cutting angles and picking his spots to sit down on hard combinations. He goes from punches to kicks and kicks to punches with a tricky rhythm, packs real power in his shots and works at a great pace. Defensive wrestling is a strong suit and he's far stronger and more dangerous in the clinch than his 5'6" frame would suggest.
Issa is a black belt in BJJ, and that remains the core of his game. He's a potent kicker and not bad on the feet in general, but he's a mediocre wrestler and struggles to set up his takedowns.
Prediction: Lapilus should be able to stuff the takedowns and keep this on the feet. In that scenario, the Frenchman is more athletic, more technical, works much faster and is vastly more dangerous. Lapilus wins a wide decision.
The Prelims, Part 2
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Bantamweights
Ashlee Evans-Smith (4-1; 1-1 UFC) vs. Veronica Macedo (5-0; 0-0 UFC)
The 20-year-old Macedo, a native of Venezuela who now trains out of Poland, steps up on just two weeks' notice to take on the American Evans-Smith in an excellent bantamweight bout. Macedo has been a professional for only six months and has won five fights but has yet to face imposing competition. Evans-Smith has split her two UFC outings, winning the second against Marion Reneau in February.
Macedo is raw, as one would expect from a 20-year-old with six months of professional experience, but her talent is obvious. She's athletic, fast, has great killer instinct and a vicious striking arsenal. Unfortunately, she's a novice wrestler and knows little about getting back to her feet after giving up a takedown.
Evans-Smith is big for the division at 5'8" and does everything well. She's a smooth, high-output striker who puts together nice punch-kick combinations, a punishing clinch fighter and a strong wrestler as well.
Prediction: This should come down to size, activity and wrestling. Macedo is only 5'3" and looks like a strawweight, and Evans-Smith's wrestling advantage will only highlight that disparity. There's always a chance of Macedo landing a crazy finishing strike at range, but it's more likely that Evans-Smith grinds this out. She takes a decision.
Welterweights
Peter Sobotta (15-5-1; 2-4 UFC) vs. Nicolas Dalby (14-1-1; 1-1-1 UFC)
Sobotta, a German of Polish descent, takes on Denmark's Dalby in a fine welterweight matchup. Sobotta had won two straight in his second stint in the UFC but ate a vicious kick to the body from Kyle Noke last November. Dalby, a touted prospect, has had mixed results at the highest level: He won his debut but drew with Darren Till and then lost a wide decision to Zak Cummings in April.
The German can do a bit of everything. He's a crisp, active southpaw striker who strings together smooth punch-kick combinations at range, he wrestles well and he has an excellent top game. Dalby is a high-output striker himself who throws a steady diet of kicks while looking for well-timed double-leg takedowns to complement his strikes.
Prediction: This is a close fight, but if it stays standing, Dalby should have a slight edge in output and diversity. The pick is Dalby by decision.
Welterweights
Jim Wallhead (29-9; 0-0 UFC) vs. Jessin Ayari (15-3; 0-0 UFC)
Regional veterans meet in a decent welterweight bout. The 32-year-old Wallhead, an 11-year professional, is best known for a three-fight stint in Bellator and otherwise has spent his career on the European scene. Ayari has won six in a row, including a decision over UFC veteran Mickael Lebout in his last fight.
Wallhead fights like the experienced veteran he is. He's a crafty boxer on the feet, slinging a hard jab and low kicks as he cuts angles through the cage, and he mixes in clinch takedowns and control on the mat. Ayari is mostly a striker with a preference for combinations of power punches, though he has a nose for the submission when he can get the fight to the ground.
Prediction: This is yet another close fight. Wallhead has more diverse options at his disposal, and that should be the difference here. He takes a decision.
Nick Hein vs. Tae Hyun Bang
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Lightweights
Nick Hein (13-2, 1 N/C; 3-1 UFC) vs. Tae Hyun Bang (18-9; 2-2 UFC)
Germany's Hein takes on South Korea's Bang in a decent lightweight matchup. Hein has won a pair of fights since his lone loss in the UFC, taking decisions from Yusuke Kasuya and Lukasz Sajewski. Bang won a tight decision over Leo Kuntz last November.
This is a relatively soft matchup for a local favorite in Hein and little else, though it could be fun.
Although he has a deep background in judo, Hein mostly prefers to strike. The southpaw is quick of both hand and foot and circles consistently through the cage to create openings for combinations of power punches. He has some pop in his hands, though he isn't a real knockout artist, and he excels at landing both as he moves forward and on the counter.
Explosiveness is the name of Hein's game. He's small for the division at 5'6" and doesn't use many kicks or jabs, so he relies on his athleticism to get him in and out of range. That limits his offensive output, and he relies on the appearance of landing the bigger shots to win rounds.
As you'd expect given his judo skills, Hein is a rock in the clinch. He's impossible to budge and has given up only one takedown in his UFC career, while offensively he has a nice arsenal of trips and throws. On top Hein is nothing special, but he's competent enough to eat up time.
Bang is a puncher with power in his hands. He has a crisp jab and throws the occasional kick, but he's all about combinations of heavy punches, especially on the counter. There's some craft to his game, especially in terms of his head movement and footwork in the pocket, but he's straightforward about what he wants to do and doesn't maintain that technical style for long. It's not hard to draw him into a brawl.
The odd takedown adds some variety, and he can control on top for a while, but he's an average defensive wrestler at best and doesn't have much of a submission game.
Betting Odds
Hein -230, Bang +190
Prediction
If Hein does nothing but strike with Bang, he might be in trouble with a more potent, if sloppier, puncher. It's more likely that Hein hits a few takedowns to cement his rounds on top of cleaner striking, though. The German wins a decision.
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Ryan Bader vs. Ilir Latifi
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Light Heavyweights
Ryan Bader (20-5; 13-5 UFC) vs. Ilir Latifi (12-4, 1 N/C; 5-2 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter 8 winner and longtime contender Bader takes on Sweden's Latifi in an excellent light heavyweight bout.
Bader has been up and down during his time in the UFC, putting together multiple winning streaks that had him on the cusp of breaking through to the division's top tier before invariably coming up short. Latifi has won three in a row since a loss to Jan Blachowicz, two of them by knockout inside two minutes, and has earned a shot at an elite fighter.
While he began his career as an All-American wrestler, the athletic and explosive Bader can do it all at this point in his career.
Bader is an experienced and skilled striker who relies on a tricky, consistent jab that sets his preferred distance while disrupting his opponent's timing and rhythm. A steady diet of round kicks to the legs and body wear his opponent down, and when the mood strikes, he can sit down on a power punch that carries real knockout power. Crisp footwork and pivots keep him moving through the space of the cage.
On the other hand, though, Bader isn't much of a combination striker: Everything he throws comes one at a time, which limits his offensive output and pace. His head movement and other defensive skills are solid but come and go, and he can be caught on the counter.
Although he likes to strike these days, Bader hasn't forgotten how to wrestle, and he does an excellent job—he's legitimately one of the best in MMA—of transitioning from punches to takedowns. His double-leg takedown is one of the most explosive and authoritative in the sport. Defensive wrestling is a strong suit, though dedicated takedown artists have been able to get him to the mat in the past.
On the ground, Bader mostly controls from top position, landing strikes and working the occasional pass. He does outstanding work from wrestling positions like the top ride, and his ability to let his opponent move underneath him while maintaining control allows him to wear opponents down and kill the clock.
Latifi is a 5'8" ball of muscle, explosiveness and raw power. Per Joe Rogan on the UFC 196 broadcast, Daniel Cormier called him the strongest guy he'd ever trained with after a brief stint at the American Kickboxing Academy, and that physicality is the key to Latifi's game.
Nobody will confuse Latifi with a champion kickboxer, but he has a functional, low-output striking game at range. One-punch knockout power, in the literal sense, is his calling card: He only needs one clean shot to get the job done, and he has a variety of ways of putting that power on his opponent.
At range, the Swede works slowly and patiently, circling through the space of the cage and waiting for opportunities to either explode forward with a punching combination or counter after his opponent steps in with a strike.
The threat of his power distracts from Latifi's clinch entries, and his ridiculous strength makes him a handful whenever he gets his hands on his opponent. He excels at using head pressure to grind against the fence while landing knees and short punches. When the clinch breaks, Latifi makes the most of the opportunity by unloading a vicious head-body combination.
Wrestling is Latifi's wheelhouse. He has never been taken down in the UFC and showcases a variety of singles, doubles, trips and throws. Suplexes are a specialty.
On the mat, Latifi is mostly content to control and land strikes, but he's surprisingly dangerous in transitions. His front headlock is nasty, and he has a slick guillotine choke.
Betting Odds
Bader -220, Latifi +180
Prediction
While Bader is the rightful favorite, this is a dangerous matchup for him: Latifi has the wrestling skills to stuff his takedowns, the counterpunching acumen to sting him when he commits to an attack and the power to dent Bader's chin, as other punchers have done in the past. If Bader can drag Latifi into deep waters and make him work, he can drain Latifi's somewhat questionable gas tank and win rounds on points, though.
This is an upset pick, but Latifi finds the big shot and knocks Bader out in the first round.
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jan Blachowicz
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Co-Main Event: Light Heavyweights
Alexander Gustafsson (16-4; 8-4 UFC) vs. Jan Blachowicz (19-5; 2-2 UFC)
Poland's Blachowicz takes on Sweden's Gustafsson in an excellent light heavyweight matchup. Both fighters badly need a win, but for the Swedish former two-time title contender the situation is desperate: Gustafsson has lost two in a row and three of his last four. He needs a convincing win to remind everyone that he still belongs in the conversation at the top of the division.
Blachowicz beat Igor Pokrajac in April to save himself from a pink slip, but he's been something of a disappointment since signing and could be cut with a loss.
The Pole is dangerous and reasonably well rounded. Striking is his wheelhouse, and he showcases a substantial amount of technical skill. Going from punches to kicks is a particular specialty, and he loves to finish his combinations with a vicious left round kick to the liver.
Counterpunching is another excellent piece of his game. Blachowicz excels at catching opponents as they come in and throws a lovely check hook, pivoting out as he lets the punch go. He has drastically improved his footwork in his last two outings as well and is substantially more mobile than he used to be.
In the clinch, Blachowicz is a monster. He's strong, particularly against the fence, and packs serious power in his knees. He shoots a nice double-leg takedown as well, particularly when his opponent overcommits to forward movement. Basic top control with hard strikes and the occasional guard pass help him eat up time.
Those are the positives. On the negative side, Blachowicz isn't particularly fast, lacks real defensive craft and has a tendency to gas if he can't fight exactly the style of fight he wants. His takedown defense is no better than mediocre, and he offers nothing from his back, even struggling to get back to his feet.
Gustafsson stands an imposing 6'5" and uses every inch of that height to his advantage. The former boxer fights long behind a crisp and powerful jab and a steady diet of low kicks, which he uses to enforce a substantial distance between him and his opponent and to create the space that allows him to move through the cage at will.
At heart, the Swede is a mobile fighter. He never wants to stand in one place for too long and doesn't like to exchange in the pocket. Sticking and moving is his bread and butter. He doesn't have the tightest footwork, though, and if pressured effectively will sometimes turn his back and run rather than relying on basic pivots.
When he does sit down on a power punch, though, Gustafsson is dangerous. He packs serious pop in his uppercuts and left hooks and excels at timing them to catch his opponent right on the chin.
Gustafsson's height also serves him well in the clinch. He excels at turning an overshot punch into a collar tie and following with a succession of knees and short punches in tight, and then disengaging before his opponent can tie him up.
Wrestling adds a strong secondary element to Gustafsson's game. He's nearly impossible to take down and hold on the mat, while he's a technical takedown artist in his own right. As with his counterpunches, Gustafsson's timing on his shots is outstanding.
The Swede fights at a punishing pace, while his durability makes up for a seriously lacking defensive game on the feet. In sum, he's one of the best fighters in the division in every phase.
Betting Odds
Gustafsson -750, Blachowicz +525
Prediction
As the betting odds suggest, this is Gustafsson's fight to lose. He's the better wrestler, more technical and more active striker and can fight at a range Blachowicz can't match. Gustafsson wears the Pole down for a while before finishing with strikes in the second round.
Andrei Arlovski vs Josh Barnett
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Main Event: Heavyweights
Josh Barnett (34-8; 6-3 UFC) vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-12, 1 N/C; 14-6 UFC)
Veteran heavyweights meet as their long and illustrious careers enter their final act. Barnett has been a professional for nearly 20 years and the former heavyweight champion Arlovski for 17, and both are coming off losses that have jeopardized their resurgences in their second stints with the UFC.
Arlovski started strong in his return to the UFC, winning four consecutive fights and finding himself on the cusp of a title shot. Consecutive knockout losses to Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem halted his momentum, however, and brought back shades of the fighter whose chin always seemed to fail him in big moments.
Barnett has split four fights in his second go-around in the UFC. Ben Rothwell unexpectedly choked him out in his last fight, but before that Barnett put together one of the best performances of his long career in a five-round pasting of Roy Nelson.
The winner of this bout, despite age and a relatively underwhelming recent record, will still be in the conversation at the top of the heavyweight division.
At this point in his career, Arlovski's game is all about the right hand. It's a limited approach, but in its own way, that's an advantage.
The veteran has no illusions about his bread and butter, and with planting the right on his opponent's chin as the ultimate goal, he can focus on finding diverse ways to bring that about. Moreover, Arlovski is still quick with his hands and carries serious power, so it's hardly an illogical focus.
In the past, Arlovski showed off a crisp and powerful jab, but it makes only occasional appearances these days. He's mostly content to measure distance with his lead hand.
When he gets an opportunity, Arlovski bombs away with the right hand. He can throw it in a forward-moving blitz, as a back-stepping counter or after stepping off an angle. He can throw it as a straight, an overhand or an uppercut. He'll often throw it three or four times in a row, mixing it around, under and through his opponent's guard. He mixes locations, going to the body and then the head.
Oblique and round kicks to the legs add some diversity to Arlovski's striking game at range, but he throws only a few per fight.
Otherwise, Arlovski loves to dive into the clinch. He's strong, especially against the fence, and knows how to grind away and eat away the clock between striking exchanges. His takedown defense remains excellent, and only top-flight takedown artists can get him to the mat.
Arlovski has the skills to compete with all but the very best heavyweights in the division. The question is whether his chin can take his opponent's punches along the way.
Barnett is skilled in every facet of the game, and he remains surprisingly quick on his feet for a 39-year-old fighter.
While he's never gotten much credit for it, Barnett is a skilled and experienced striker. He can fight from both stances, and throws a crisp, disruptive jab that keeps his opponent at range while preventing him from getting into a rhythm. Crisp counters and generally efficient boxing make him a handful to deal with at range. Strong low, middle and front kicks add another dimension to this game.
Pace is the best piece of Barnett's striking game. While he's not a big hitter, he throws at a tremendous rate for a heavyweight, and he's tricky enough defensively that he rarely eats a big shot in response.
While he can win rounds on activity at range, Barnett is a true monster in the clinch. He grinds his opponent against the fence and moves smoothly between short punches, elbows and knees. It's a technically sound, vicious and tireless game that works against practically everyone in the division.
Pure takedowns are probably the weakest piece of Barnett's game. He shoots a solid single and double and has some trips, but he isn't particularly explosive or creative with them. Defensive wrestling isn't his calling card, either.
On the mat, Barnett really shines. He's one of the best heavyweight grapplers in the sport's history and excels from top position, where he exerts a tremendous amount of force and pressure that compels his opponent to try to respond and escape. Vicious ground strikes, slick passes and an array of dangerous submissions, from arm triangles to leg locks, make him a serious threat for anyone.
Betting Odds
Barnett -150, Arlovski +130
Prediction
This is a well-matched and compelling fight, both in terms of narrative and styles. Given Arlovski's excellent takedown defense and Barnett's somewhat underwhelming pure takedown game, this is likely to be a striking match, at least for the first few rounds. That kind of fight pits Barnett's volume-oriented approach against Arlovski's crafty right hand.
If Barnett were less durable or worked at a slower pace, that matchup would favor Arlovski: By any measure, he's the more dangerous range striker, particularly in the pocket. Barnett would be foolish to stick around purely at range, though, and he should have a substantial advantage in the clinch. He won't let Arlovski rest there, and over time, the American will accrue damage with elbows and knees.
Barnett probably won't crack Arlovski's chin, and in a five-round fight, the edge has to go to Barnett. He takes a fun, back-and-forth decision.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.
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