Belgian Grand Prix 2016: 5 Bold Predictions for Spa Race
The 13th round of the 2016 Formula One season will take place at this weekend's Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps, where Lewis Hamilton will hope to continue his charge toward a fourth world title.
Having overturned a 43-point deficit to take the lead of the drivers' standings in Hungary, the British driver extended his advantage over Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg to 19 points with victory in July's German GP at Hockenheim.
But even though his lead at the halfway point of 2016 was just two points smaller than the gap he held at the same stage last year, Hamilton admitted he still didn't feel like the leader of the drivers' standings. Much of that, you suspect, was due to the engine-related grid penalties hanging over Hamilton, who will almost certainly start from the back of the grid at the next round in Italy.
As such, the three-time world champion will want to enjoy a strong weekend at Spa ahead of what is expected to be a difficult weekend at Monza.
With a look at Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen, Toro Rosso's Daniil Kvyat, Williams' Felipe Massa and Manor newcomer Esteban Ocon, here are five predictions for the Belgian GP.
Lewis Hamilton Will Win from 2nd on the Grid
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Are we heading for a repeat of late 2013?
With Mercedes extremely comfortable in both championships and major regulation changes on the horizon, it is likely that the chasing pack will effectively give up on the rest of 2016 and allow the Silver Arrows to win each of the remaining races in the hope of bouncing back next year.
Comparisons with Red Bull's winning streak at the end of the V8 era three years ago may be inevitable.
But while Sebastian Vettel claimed each of those nine victories en route to his fourth consecutive title, any Mercedes dominance is, as ever, sure to be shared between Hamilton and Rosberg.
As reported by Sky Sports' James Galloway, Hamilton's early-season reliability problems are set to see him incur a grid-place penalty in the second half of the 2016 season, potentially handing a "free" win to Rosberg.
Although it was initially thought that his punishment would be served at Spa, it is increasingly obvious that Hamilton will take the hit at Monza—the scene of one of Mercedes' most dominant displays of last year—with team boss Toto Wolff telling Fox Sports that "it's easier to overtake" at the Italian GP venue.
That impending penalty attaches greater significance to the Belgian GP for Hamilton, who despite extending his championship advantage to 19 points in Germany said he still doesn't feel like he leads the standings, per the same source.
Victory at Spa would take him at least 26 points clear—and out of Rosberg's reach—ahead of Monza, meaning he could approach a challenging Italian GP weekend in the knowledge that he wouldn't lose the championship lead to his team-mate no matter what happens.
Rosberg will secure a third successive pole position on Saturday, but yet another slow start will drop him down the order and allow Hamilton to ease to a seventh win in eight races.
Kimi Raikkonen Will Split the Mercedes Drivers on the Podium
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It has almost become compulsory to discuss Raikkonen's record in the buildup to every race at Spa.
In his 11 previous Belgian GP appearances, the 2007 world champion has claimed four victories. He has stood on the podium five times and—get this—he has never finished behind a team-mate in the race.
But in the last three seasons, F1's Spa expert has been been relatively nowhere.
His record run of 30 consecutive points finishes came to an end with his retirement from the 2013 race, while his fourth-place finish in the 2014 event was little consolation in the worst season of his F1 career, and a qualifying stoppage left him only seventh a year ago.
Raikkonen is due for a change of luck at the place where he took his last Ferrari win seven years ago, and there are signs that he is on the verge of a strong result.
Having spent much of the last 18 months as Vettel's doormat, Raikkonen has fought back since his contract extension was announced on the eve of the British GP, outqualifying the four-time world champion at Silverstone and Hockenheim.
As Wolff told Sky Sports' Emma Walker, Ferrari are "pretty much" equal to Mercedes in terms of power output after introducing a significant engine upgrade at June's Canadian GP, but huge question marks remain over the competence of their chassis.
Team principal Maurizio Arrivabene's admission to Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble that Ferrari have added no downforce to the SF16-H since May means the car, as at Silverstone, could be a handful around Spa's fast sweeps.
But should Rosberg be forced into a recovery drive at the start, we're backing Raikkonen to split the Mercedes drivers on the podium.
Daniil Kvyat Will Enjoy His Strongest Weekend Since Rejoining Toro Rosso
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Sympathy for Kvyat, a driver who has never learned from his mistakes and carries himself like a petulant teenager, should only extend so far.
But considering that we like to think of our Formula One drivers as indestructible, self-confident superheroes, it was uncomfortable to see him resemble a broken man over the German GP weekend.
After failing to progress from Q1 at Hockenheim with a lap more than 0.5 seconds slower than team-mate Carlos Sainz Jr., Kvyat admitted he had stopped enjoying F1 and needed the summer break "more than anyone else," per Motorsport.com's Valentin Khorounzhiy and Jamie Klein.
The 22-year-old has clearly made the most of his time away, and as the season recommences at Spa, it is time for Kvyat to stop feeling sorry for himself and start saving his skin.
Ever since he became the first driver to be sent back to Toro Rosso in May, the Russian has frequently hinted he has no future within the Red Bull family, telling Crash.net's Ollie Barstow he will seek a "change of the situation" and "help outside of Red Bull" at the end of 2016.
It was fascinating, then, that as the summer break came to a close, Kvyat told Motorsport.com's Khorounzhiy and Noble how Toro Rosso would be a "fantastic option" and "a really interesting place to be" in 2017—almost as if he had been reassured that he would still be retained by the Red Bull B-team.
As Sainz recently explained, per Motorsport.com's Pablo Elizalde, Toro Rosso are beginning to pay the price for competing with year-old Ferrari power units, but their lack of straight-line speed could be disguised by the performance of the STR11 car in Spa's fast corners.
Having failed to finish higher than 10th in the eight races since rejoining Toro Rosso, Kvyat will enjoy a breakthrough weekend in Belgium by beating Sainz in qualifying and securing a solid, confidence-boosting points finish.
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Felipe Massa Will Hit Williams Team-Mate Valtteri Bottas on the Opening Lap
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If this is to be his last season, a driver as popular and industrious as Massa deserves a dignified exit from F1.
But the man who came within 39 seconds of winning the world championship eight years ago is unlikely to be afforded that privilege, with Williams taking an anyone-but-him approach to negotiations concerning their 2017 driver lineup.
In recent weeks, deputy team principal Claire Williams has openly flirted with other drivers in the paddock, telling the Press Association (h/t Motorsport.com's Noble) of her interest in signing Jenson Button or Sergio Perez to partner Valtteri Bottas next season.
Williams' aggressive pursuit of a new driver has undermined Massa, who has been forced to deny that money is a motivating factor in his desire to extend his career, per Brazilian outlet UOL Esporte (h/t Eurosport).
Massa's recent admission, per ESPN F1's Lewis Larkam, that he will only remain in F1 if he is made to feel like "an important key in the team that [he is] working for" revealed much about what he feels about Williams' treatment of him, and that lack of love can be seen in his recent results.
Having scored points in each of the first six grands prix of 2016, the Brazilian has scored just one in the last six, with a number of errors—see his qualifying crash in Hungary—creeping into his driving.
With the high-speed layouts of Spa and Monza favouring their Mercedes-powered cars over the last two seasons, this is normally the time of year when Williams dare to dream of ending their extended wait for a race victory.
But the distance between the team and their most senior driver will further widen this weekend when Massa will tangle with Bottas on Lap 1 and add yet another race to Williams' list of "missed opportunities."
Esteban Ocon Will Beat Pascal Wehrlein in Qualifying and the Race
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Just a few years ago, it was almost impossible for drivers to jump into an unfamiliar car and immediately perform at an adequate level.
The struggles of Luca Badoer and Giancarlo Fisichella in replacing the injured Felipe Massa at Ferrari in 2009 have lived long in the memory, while Heikki Kovalainen's two-race stint with Lotus at the end of 2013 was so catastrophically woeful that it effectively finished his F1 career.
Perhaps it is an indication that modern F1 cars are too easy to drive, or maybe today's deputies are simply far more versatile, but midseason signings no longer need time and patience to adapt.
Andre Lotterer excelled in his one and only appearance for Caterham in the 2014 Belgian GP, while Alexander Rossi did enough during his five races for Manor at the end of last year to be considered their star driver of the season.
And that's before you consider the seat-swappers of 2016—Max Verstappen, Stoffel Vandoorne and Kvyat—who were all instantly on the pace in cars they hadn't even tested before.
So it is with much anticipation and very high expectations that we will watch how Ocon—who beat Verstappen to the European FIA Formula Three title in 2014—fares on his debut for Manor this weekend.
Although he has yet to start a grand prix, the teenager has considerable F1 experience, having made his first free-practice appearance for Lotus in late 2014 and represented Mercedes and Renault in several test and FP1 sessions this season.
That partnership between Ocon and fellow Mercedes protege Pascal Wehrlein promises to be among the most fascinating team-mate battles in the second half of 2016.
And it would be no surprise if the debutant were to outperform Wehrlein, who has raced the MRT05 car all season long, throughout the Belgian GP weekend.
Because, these days, that is what deputies do.
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