Week Four Preview: Baltimore Ravens (3-0) @ New England Patriots (2-1)

The Vitals

Total Offense: This is a matchup of two high-powered offensive units (when it comes to yardage). The Ravens march into Foxborough ranked second in the NFL, amassing 430.3 yards per game. The Patriots, meanwhile, are still churning out yardage as well, averaging 395 yards per contest (ranked fifth in the league).

Passing Yards: New England is currently ranked third in the NFL, with quarterback Tom Brady tossing the ball for an impressive 287 yards per game. With Joe Flacco at the helm, the Ravens are not far behind. They are ranked fifth in passing yards, averaging 273.7 yards per game through the air.

Rushing Yards: With their tandem of Willis McGahee and Ray Rice leading the way, Baltimore has been running the ball effectively all year, averaging 156.7 yards per game. New England, on the other hand, is led by a very diverse group of backs, and, until last week, hadn’t run the ball much at all. Through three weeks, the Pats are averaging 108 yards on the ground per game, good for 17thin the NFL.

Points Scored: While these two teams have similar yardage averages through three weeks, the Ravens have been better at putting points on the board, scoring at an average clip of 34.3 points per contest (second in the league), while New England is averaging a more modest 20 points per game (tied at 16th with Jacksonville).

Yards Allowed: Defensively, New England has been surprisingly stingy, ranking sixth overall in yards allowed per game, yielding opponents a paltry 262.3 yards per game. Baltimore has always had a stout defensive unit, and this year is no different, as they are ranked seventh, allowing their opponents 282.7 yards per game.

Passing Yards Allowed: After a difficult year in the secondary last season, the Patriots seem to be making strides in defending against the pass; ranking sixth in the NFL in pass defense, allowing 174 yards per game through the air. Baltimore has not had the same success as New England, as they are currently ranked 16th, allowing opposing quarterbacks to gash their secondary, allowing 231.7 yards per game through the air.

Rushing Yards Allowed: It is nearly impossible to run the ball against Baltimore. They rank first in the NFL in this category through three weeks, surrendering a mere 51 yards on the ground per game. New England has been solid defending the run as well, coming in at tenth overall, allowing opponents to rush for 88.1 yards per game.

Points Allowed: Against the Patriots, opposing offenses haven’t had the easiest time putting points on the board, as New England is giving up only 16.7 points per game (seventh in the NFL). The Ravens are not far behind, as opponents are scoring only 17.7 points per game, good for ninth in the NFL.

What to Expect from Baltimore

Defensively, like most years, Baltimore has a stud defense. It will be nearly impossible for New England to establish a run game, as Baltimore has a terrific front seven, led by linebackers Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis, as well as defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. This group will likely clog any running lanes, giving New England’s offensive line and diverse group of running backs fits.

The weakness to this defense is its secondary. Led by safety Ed Reed, Baltimore has had difficulty defending against passing attacks, and, at least on paper, New England has the most prolific air attack that Baltimore has faced so far this season. To counteract this, Baltimore will likely try to pressure Tom Brady; much like the New York Jets did in week two. They will test Brady to see if he is confident in that knee yet.

Offensively, Baltimore has it all. On the ground, running backs Willis McGahee and Ray Rice are leading an impressive charge, with McGahee getting the touchdowns and Rice getting the yards. Both of them are prolific backs that are difficult to stop.

Second-year quarterback Joe Flacco’s training wheels have been removed this year, and he is slinging the ball with the best of them so far. With targets like tight end Todd Heaps and veteran wide receiver Desmond Mason, it’s easy to see why Flacco is having such a good year.

To compliment all this, Baltimore’s offensive line is a stout one. They will open lanes for their backs and will likely do a good job protecting Flacco, giving him time to attack New England’s secondary downfield.

While New England’s defense has looked good so far this season, this is their biggest test yet, and they will need to call on all they have to slow down this attack.

Players to Watch

Tom Brady: With such an impressive rush defense standing across from him, Brady is going to need to make some plays with his arm if New England hopes to score many points tomorrow. The question is whether or not Brady has fully regained confidence in his seemingly still recovering knee. While he looked better and more confident last week against Atlanta, he was relatively unpressured by the mediocre Atlanta defense. Don’t expect such a lackluster pass rush this week, and watch to see how Brady responds to it.

Fred Taylor/Running Game: Fred Taylor had a breakout game against the Falcons last week. However, the defense that he will be facing this time around is much better than the one he squared off against last week. Ngata is a load, and nobody likes to face Ray Lewis. Don’t expect another 100-yard performance from any of New England’s backs this week, but they’ll need to gain more than 51 yards on the ground if the Patriots want to win.

Vince Wilfork/Defensive Front: New England’s stud defensive tackle Vince Wilfork hurt his ankle last week against Atlanta and has not practiced much this week. If he cannot go, it will likely be a combination of Mike Wright and rookie Myron Pryor (as well as newly signed behemoth Terdell Sands) that is asked to slow down Baltimore’s rushing attack and pressure quarterback Joe Flacco. It will be vital for the defensive line (along with the linebacking corps—which will likely be without its leader Jerod Mayo once again) to get pressure, as it will be challenging for the secondary to slow down the prolific Ravens passing attack.

New England Keys to Victory

Control the Ball: This will be difficult to do, as Baltimore gives up almost nothing on the ground. However, Baltimore has arguably the best offense in the league, and it will be important to make sure that the Ravens don’t have the ball a majority of the game. Pound the ball, and use the pass for short to intermediate gains, and make sure to keep the clock rolling. Finally, when the Patriots get into the red zone, they need to score touchdowns, not field goals. If the Ravens don’t have the ball, they can’t score. This may be New England’s best defense against Baltimore’s offense.

Stop Baltimore’s Running Game: Granted Baltimore also has an impressive passing attack, but if they can’t run the ball against New England’s front four, they will become one-dimensional and the pass will therefore be easier to defend. Bottle up Ray Rice and keep Willis McGahee out of the endzone. It’s a tall task, but it will make life a lot easier for everyone if the Ravens are forced to pass on every down.

Pressure Flacco: Along with containing the running game, it will be important to prevent Joe Flacco from hanging out in the pocket until his receivers get open. He has emerged as one of the better QBs in the league, and he can make most of the throws, and he has the weapons around him to exploit opposing defenses. If he’s uncomfortable, he won’t be able to focus on checking down, trying to find the open receiver, and he may telegraph a ball or two.

Prediction

If New England is able to contain the offense and attack the Baltimore pass defense, they should win this game.

Then again, if President Obama passes a perfect health care bill and wins the war in Afghanistan he’ll get reelected.

The point is, this is a classic example of it’s easier said than done. Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league, and they are looking to cement themselves as the top team in the NFL with a statement win on the road in New England.

The Patriot’s defense has been surprisingly productive so far this season (despite the fact they have no interceptions to speak of), and they will need to step up big once again this week. New England will also need Brady to orchestrate an efficient offense that keeps Baltimore’s offense off the field and scores touchdowns rather than field goals (something that has been an issue so far this season).

All things considered, look for New England to escape with a close win, mostly due to the fact that they are at home.

However, if the above points do not happen and Baltimore runs rampant offensively, it could be a long afternoon in Foxborough.