UFC 202: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor 2 is almost here, folks! It's really, finally, truly almost here!
At UFC 202 on Saturday, Diaz and McGregor will face off in one of the most hotly anticipated rematches in MMA history. Their first fight, of course, was a back-and-forth affair that culminated in a dramatic second-round submission by Diaz. Their second could reasonably end in any way, at any point.
There are plenty of other fights worth talking about on the main card too:
- Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira
- Rick Story vs. Donald Cerrone
- Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Mike Perry
- Tim Means vs. Sabah Homasi
As usual, the Bleacher Report MMA predictions team is here to give you some early insight on the card. So let's jump right in!
Tim Means vs. Sabah Homasi
1 of 5
Nathan McCarter
You take the call to the UFC when you get it, but sometimes it leads to an unfortunate beating. That's the case for Homasi here. Means will batter him en route to a referee stoppage. Don't expect this one to be competitive or go to the scorecards.
Means, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Homasi owns some nice wins, but his UFC debut is not going to go well. Means has overwhelmed many veterans of the promotion with his vicious, unceasing attack. This one won't last too long.
Means, TKO, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
I agree with Nathan and Craig. Means has more experience and more success, both at a higher level, than Homasi. He should easily get the win.
Means, TKO, Rd. 1
Scott Harris
I watch a lot of fisticuffsmanship, and I had never heard of Homasi until he landed on the pay-per-view opener of UFC 202. I'm guessing he's a willing-to-trade sort of fellow, perfect for a triumphant Means foil.
Means, TKO, Rd. 1
Steven Rondina
Means isn't good enough to deserve the kind of confidence my compatriots are putting into their picks. That said, there's little reason to believe Homasi can pull off the upset.
Means, TKO, Rd. 2
Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Mike Perry
2 of 5
McCarter
This is a chance for Perry to make a statement. He's on the main card of a big show for his debut against a tough opponent who has lost only to upper-level foes in the UFC. All of that leads me to lean toward Lim. The pressure of Perry's debut against a credible opponent will just be too much right out of the chute. Lim edges Perry on the cards.
Lim, unanimous decision
Amos
Perry has six pro fights and six knockout wins, mostly by punches. That's impressive, but his hit list lacks a signature victory you can point to. A win over Lim would get him that, but it's a tall order.
Lim, TKO, Rd. 2
Jones
Lim is taller and more experienced and has had several fights in the UFC. This will be his sixth. His last fight was a loss to Neil Magny, which doesn't indicate much to me. If Lim is going to have some success in the UFC, he should find it against the debuting Perry.
Lim, KO, Rd. 2
Harris
Perry is a fun character with a knack for hurting people with his fists. And you know what? Sound the alarms. That's right. Lim is a huge and powerful welterweight, but Perry is going to cash in his puncher's chance and make a big story out of himself. You heard it here first.
Perry, KO, Rd. 1
Rondina
This is pretty much the same deal as Means vs. Homasi. Lim isn't a world beater, but he's just good enough to be favored over a relative unknown. There's more reason to be confident about Perry than Homasi...but not reason enough.
Lim, unanimous decision
Rick Story vs. Donald Cerrone
3 of 5
McCarter
Cerrone has this one locked up, but finishing Story is a tall task. The ultimate difference is the length that Cerrone has in this fight. He'll stick Story on the outside and eat him up with his high output of strikes. Story struggles to get inside to do much of anything, and the scores will reflect just that.
Cerrone, unanimous decision
Amos
Since jumping to welterweight, Cerrone has looked outstanding. He's always been a top-level fighter, but man...the way he battered Patrick Cote. Story represents a moderate step up, but there's no reason to suspect this latest challenge will slow down Cowboy.
Cerrone, submission, Rd. 3
Jones
This makes Cerrone's fourth fight in nine months, with his most recent being a third-round TKO victory over Cote in June. And he's not running out of steam yet; he appears to be a machine with all parts still highly functional. Story is no joke, but Cerrone will, as he so often does, use his expansive skill set to dictate and lead the fight, closing off Story's potential avenues to victory.
Cerrone, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
Story is just so tough. He's so aggressive, always coming forward in that Terminator-after-the-hydraulic-press sort of way. He can press Cerrone against the fence and stymie Cowboy's muay thai. But here's guessing that Cerrone is just too much for Story. His striking in space is far better, and his athleticism should keep him free of an extended grind.
Cerrone, submission, Rd. 2
Rondina
Cerrone's Achilles' heel is his Achilles' torso. He doesn't defend against, or endure, shots to the body all that well. Story doesn't have the power to put Cerrone down, though, and that opens up the door for this 170-pound Cowboy to take command.
Cerrone, unanimous decision
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Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira
4 of 5
McCarter
Sign the DC vs. Rumble rematch now. Teixeira can't take the power that Johnson brings.
Johnson, KO, Rd. 1
Amos
Teixeira does several things better than Johnson, but the Brazilian has the bad habit of eating punches in order to unleash his own offense. That's just not a feasible game plan against the most powerful light heavyweight on the planet.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 2
Jones
Oh, how I want Teixeira to win. While Johnson has several flashy KOs against weaker fighters, he's a powerful striker who can put anyone to sleep. I'm going to take a risk here and say Teixeira can absorb enough punishment and get close enough to Johnson that he can grapple his way to a submission.
Johnson's grappling is severely lacking, as we've seen. If Teixeira's game plan doesn't entail trying to avoid exchanging on the feet, he'll be in trouble. It may not have been his MO in the past, but if anyone will make him rethink that strategy, it has to be Johnson, right?
Teixeira, submission, Rd. 2
Harris
This one is a lot like Cerrone vs. Story. Teixeira is the meat-and-potatoes guy, while Johnson is the Cowboy-esque dynamic striker. Johnson's poor cardio often has him on a shorter clock than his opponents, but here it won't matter. Look out for Johnson vs. Cormier 2, coming your way this November.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 2
Rondina
This one is a lot closer than it would seem, given how much pop both men have and how quick Johnson is to fold when the going gets tough. Still, Rumble will land earlier and harder, and that's a winning formula.
Johnson, TKO, Rd. 1
Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor 2
5 of 5
McCarter
This is a difficult fight to pick. McGregor was spot-on in his UFC 196 post-fight interview: He wasn't efficient. That inefficiency led to his being tired and vulnerable. Even still, Diaz was able to eat his power shots without much issue, showing that McGregor hadn't carried over his power up in weight. If McGregor is more efficient, he can win, but over five rounds there is a lot of time for a repeat of what happened at UFC 196.
I'll take a shot on McGregor. Diaz won't take him down and will stand and trade for five full rounds, and then he'll be disappointed with the scores when they are read. A more efficient performance allows McGregor to get three of the five rounds.
McGregor, unanimous decision
Amos
McGregor has a lot riding on this fight. It's hard to bray about being the best when the same guy beats you twice in a row. He'll manage by staying relaxed and not trying to force the stoppage early; maybe he'll follow the blueprint Josh Thomson implemented to take out Diaz a few years ago.
McGregor, TKO, Rd. 3
Jones
McGregor may have expended a lot of energy throwing so many punches in their first fight, but he didn't gas out so much that it made him useless. It was Diaz's huge left that accomplished that and confused McGregor so much he attempted a takedown.
Maybe McGregor's camp this time is a vast improvement, and he has the means to beat Diaz. The Stockton, California, striker likes the money fights, and a third would assuredly be one, but McGregor has irritated him too much for Diaz to stay passive in this rematch.
Diaz, submission, Rd. 3
Harris
All the smart money points to Diaz, so it's a good thing I'm not smart. McGregor used the time in between the first match and now to shore up his cardio; he's not going to gas again.
Can he go five rounds with Diaz? Hell no. Can he grapple with him, stay out of his subs? No and no. He won't need to.
Diaz is so tough and so good, but it's hard to take that left-hand shot. McGregor wins and seals up a rubber match for the books.
McGregor, TKO, Rd. 1
Rondina
McGregor lost the first fight because of two things. First, as Nathan discussed, "inefficiency." Second, he just didn't know how to handle Diaz's lead hand. McGregor polishes up both of those things in the rematch and takes it on the scorecards.
McGregor, unanimous decision
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