College Football Rankings 2016: CFB Playoff Predictions After Preseason AP Poll

The 2016 college football season will begin where the 2015 campaign ended: with Alabama on top.

The defending national champions were the No. 1 team in Sunday's Associated Press preseason poll, earning 33 of a possible 61 first-place votes. Following right behind is national runner-up Clemson, which returns Heisman contender and potential No. 1 overall pick Deshaun Watson.

Following right behind is Oklahoma, Florida State and LSU.

The results unsurprisingly look similar to that of the Amway Coaches Poll, which was released Aug. 4. These outlooks tend to have a static nature, which I noted in predicting how the AP poll would play out earlier this month.

Now it's time to look even further ahead. Not to Week 1 or even to Week 6. But to the end of the season, when we'll crown the third College Football Playoff champion. Here is a look at said (way-too-early) predictions.

Rank	Team	Points	First-Place Votes
1	Alabama	1,469	33
2	Clemson	1,443	16
3	Oklahoma	1,352	4
4	Florida State	1,325	5
5	LSU	1,269	1
6	Ohio State	1,224	1
7	Michigan	1,147	1
8	Stanford	1,029	0
9	Tennessee	1,021	0
10	Notre Dame	1,006	0
11	Ole Miss	718	0
12	Michigan State	710	0
13	TCU	707	0
14	Washington	651	0
15	Houston	644	0
16	UCLA	496	0
17	Iowa	484	0
18	Georgia	448	0
19	Louisville	447	0
20	USC	344	0
21	Oklahoma State	316	0
22	North Carolina	283	0
23	Baylor	280	0
24	Oregon	218	0
25	Florida	180	0

No. 1 Clemson

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

The Tigers have some questions to answer on defense, but their path to a national championship is pretty clear: Get past road tests against Auburn and Florida State, and they're looking at another undefeated regular season.

Watson, in my eyes, is the clear-cut Heisman favorite. No other quarterback affects the game in as many ways, and Clemson should have one of the two or three best offenses in the country. That season-opening tilt at Jordan-Hare might be a first-to-50 free-for-all. But Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn will need to have made quite a few offensive adjustments from last season's disappointing bunch to compete with Watson.

Oct. 29 is the biggest date on the calendar, as a trip to Tallahassee could determine the eventual ACC champion. Florida State should again have one of the country's best defenses and an offense that's rounding into shape by the midseason mark around Dalvin Cook. Early-season tests against Ole Miss and Louisville might have the Seminoles heading into that contest with a loss or even two, but they're a real threat to play a spoiler here.

Otherwise, Clemson should again take advantage of a schedule that lacks in major tests within the SEC. Rival South Carolina is one of the worst major-conference teams in the nation and poses no major threat. An undefeated regular season feels like a pretty good bet here, assuming Watson stays upright.

No. 2 Whoever Wins Ohio State/Oklahoma Matchup

Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

The biggest non-conference game of the season goes to the Sept. 17 clash between the Buckeyes and Sooners in Norman, Oklahoma. While the loser of this game won't be knocked out of title contention, the winner could ascend to the top spot and has an inside track at a CFP berth.

Oklahoma in particular could skate to an undefeated regular season. The Big 12 has borderline threats in TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor, but all three teams are either a) weaker than their 2015 iteration or b) dealing with massive off-field issues. The Sooners are perhaps the clearest-cut favorite among the Power Five conferences.

Ohio State has just one roadblock in its way of a Big Ten title, but it's a significant one. The Buckeyes close their 2016 regular season hosting rival Michigan, which will no doubt look to atone for last season's 42-13 embarrassment.

Jim Harbaugh's second season at his alma mater seems destined to be even more successful than his first, when he took a roster lacking in players he recruited to a 10-3 record and Citrus Bowl win.

Still, the Sept. 17 matchup stands as the biggest litmus test for Ohio State and Oklahoma. Both have the tools on both sides of the ball to win a national championship.

The Sooners return Heisman contender Baker Mayfield, the best one-two running back punch in the nation in Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine and seven starters from last year's defense. The Buckeyes lost Ezekiel Elliott to the NFL, but they lack the quarterback controversy that enveloped their team a year ago. 

No. 3 Alabama

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Two quick predictions: Alabama will lose at least one regular-season game. Nick Saban will find a way to nonetheless get his team into the playoff as a No. 3 or No. 4 seed.

The Tide have gotten in each of the last two seasons with a regular-season loss, serving as the top overall seed in 2014 and the No. 2 seed a year ago. They're almost certainly going to follow a similar pattern this season if they're getting in.

Saban is tasked with replacing half of his starters from last season's national championship outfit. While he has a never-ending supply of blue-chippers, the departures hit hard. Derrick Henry single-handedly carried the offense in spots last season, carrying the ball a ridiculous 395 times. Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris will struggle to replicate 75 percent of Henry's production combined.

The passing game boasts future NFL pass-catchers in Calvin Ridley, ArDarius Stewart and O.J. Howard but lacks a clear-cut guy to get them the ball. Cooper Bateman probably winds up getting the first look, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Tide offense struggle early in the season.

One problem: The defense isn't quite good enough to atone for those issues in 2016. It, like the offense, will peak in the second half of the season when there's a clearly established hierarchy and the new starters have a chance to get acclimated.

USC and Ole Miss have a real chance to get their seasons off to good starts with an upset here. 

No. 4 Pac-12 Champion Shrug Face Emoji

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

There is no more wide-open conference than the Pac-12, which features five Top 25 teams but none ranked higher than No. 8.

Stanford appears to have the inside track, boasting Heisman contender Christian McCaffrey and a veteran core of pass-catchers around quarterback Keller Chryst. But the Cardinal visit UCLA, Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon this season. It's hard to see them getting through that gauntlet unscathed; 2-2 would be admirable.

So they're out.

Washington's next up at No. 14 and doesn't have nearly the same scheduling problems. The Huskies visit Arizona and Oregon but have an otherwise breezy schedule. Anything worse than 10-2 or 9-3 should be seen as a disappointment. They're returning 16 starters as part of a still-young team that should only continue to grow. But they were 7-6 last year; an ascent into national title contendership is unrealistic.

UCLA's defense should be marvelous despite losing Miles Jack, but the offense has a load of questions. Josh Rosen looked like a burgeoning star as a freshman. If he makes the leap, the Bruins might be the Pac-12's best shot. They have only two games against ranked opponents, both at home, and they could roll into the conference title game undefeated or with one loss. That said, with only five guys returning on offense and September matchups with Texas A&M and Stanford on their plate, it might get dicey early.

USC signed up to get crushed by Alabama in Week 1 and finishes off its regular season with three ranked opponents. Bye-bye. 

Oregon's post-Chip Kelly descent isn't surprising anyone. Mark Helfrich is probably the only coach in the nation with an .800 winning percentage who has a lot to prove.

Soooo....

No. 4 Whoever Loses Ohio State/Oklahoma Matchup

OK, changed my mind. Oklahoma and Ohio State are both good as heck. They're both going over.