NASCAR's Finest Battle for Position as Clock Ticks Toward the Chase

It's all winding down now. Cue the theme music. Four races separate the NASCAR Sprint Cup regular season from the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

The ultimate unease is that of Dale Earnhardt Jr., who can race his way in if he races at all. He has been going through concussion protocol and won't compete Saturday night in Bristol, Tennessee, where he has won before.

In a Watkins Glen, New York, media conference on Aug. 5, Earnhardt said:

"

I think my doctors have a good understanding of my history and what I have been through, and with their own personal knowledge that they have throughout their careers to give me a clear understanding of when I will be ready to go back and get into a race car. Our intentions are to get cleared and get back to racing. 

"

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During his career, Earnhardt has also won three times at Richmond and twice at Michigan. He will miss a fifth straight race while he awaits medical clearance.

Earnhardt is 21st in points and falling, but if he returns in time to remain in the top 30, all eyes will be on him because a victory can rescue his title hopes.

Intentions are one consideration. Health is another.

"You don't know when the symptoms are going to quit," he said. "You just don't know when they will stop. ... It will fix itself when it decides to."

Driver	Wins	Points Position	Avg. Finish	Status
Brad Keselowski	4	1	9.2	In
Kyle Busch	4	4	12.0	In
Carl Edwards	2	5	12.1	In
Denny Hamlin	2	7	13.6	In
Matt Kenseth	2	9	14.0	In
Jimmie Johnson	2	10	15.5	In
Kevin Harvick	1	2	9.4	In
Kurt Busch	1	3	10.1	In
Joey Logano	1	6	12.2	In
Martin Truex Jr.	1	8	13.4	In
Tony Stewart	1	26	13.6	In
Chris Buescher	1	31	27.9	Close
Ryan Newman	0	11	15.2	Close
Chase Elliott	0	12	15.8	Close
Austin Dillon	0	13	15.3	Tentative
Jamie McMurray	0	14	16.0	Tentative

After the four remaining races in the regular season, 16 drivers will compete against one another for the championship over 10 final races, divided into four elimination segments.

The tracks left in the countdown—Bristol, Michigan, Darlington and Richmond—are compelling.

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Eleven drivers are in. Assuming Chris Buescher (still six points out of the top 30) qualifies, uneasy lie the fates of four.

With Buescher, the Chase will have 12 spots locked in and four up for grabs. The season's 12 winners will be in, while the rest of the field will be filled in by points unless four new winners win the final four regular-season races.

Joey Logano, whose status is assured, said after finishing second at Watkins Glen on Aug. 7, "To me, the protocol is show some respect the next few weeks and hope the dust settles. That's pretty much what you can do."

That's easy for Logano to say. He's not on the bubble like Jamie McMurray, who holds a 30-point edge on teammate Kyle Larson, but not if Larson wins Saturday night in Bristol. Such a victory would put Austin Dillon on the Chase bubble, but he's only two points behind the aptly named Chase Elliott.

This wasn't the complication NASCAR envisioned when it introduced this title format in 2014. After starting the Chase field at 10 (in 2004) and later making it 12, surely a field of 16 would include everyone who deserved to be there.

Meanwhile, with the Sprint Cup Series taking the weekend off, this occurred in the Xfinity Series race at Mid-Ohio:

The four upcoming stops on the circuit create an interesting situation.

Over the past five years, a typical Bristol race has had 17.6 lead changes, 10 caution flags and an average green-flag run of 39 laps. The Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race isn't the wreck-filled extravaganza it once was, but it doesn't take much to dash a contender's Chase hopes on the Rocks of Paradise.

Then it's Michigan, as fair a test as any on the schedule. Darlington Raceway's racing groove is little more than a sidewalk by comparison. Richmond? It's a perilous but fair gateway to the Chase, as it has been since NASCAR began the controversial format in 2004.

Carl Edwards won at both Bristol and Richmond earlier in the season. Logano won on June 12 in Michigan. The Bojangles Southern 500 is Darlington's only annual date.

Strategy? It cuts both ways. Take McMurray. At the moment, his points status would get him in, but with four races remaining, it's hardly secure. A win? That's secure. He finished eighth at the Glen but lost two positions during the final laps.

McMurray recalled afterward:

"

The [No.] 47 [AJ Allmendinger] got underneath me into Turn 1. I probably could have raced him, but I knew he would be pushing harder than most. We're in position now with the Chase coming up that you have to get as many points as you can. To get wrecked and lose 15 points on the last lap is not worth it.

"

It's not worth it yet. If another driver joins the list of winners at Bristol, that changes.

By the way, Allmendinger collided with Larson in the final moments at the Glen. Larson fell from fourth to 29th and lost 25 of the 30 points by which he now trails McMurray.

Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

One former Bristol winner, Kasey Kahne, could make the Chase by winning this one. Kahne scored a victory on March 17, 2013, at the treacherous short track. The most unlikely breakthrough would be Casey Mears, who has never finished in the top five in 27 tries.

Then it's on to Michigan, where Greg Biffle has won four times and Kahne once; Darlington, where Biffle has won twice and Regan Smith (17 points out of the top 30) won in 2011; and Richmond, where Earnhardt Jr. has three wins and Clint Bowyer two.

Paybacks might be in the works. After being shoved aside by Allmendinger at Watkins Glen, Larson told NBC Sports:

"

He [Allmendinger] wrecked me earlier in the year at Vegas. He has run me hard...but today was flat-out stupid. I love his crew chief [Randall Burnett] to death; he was our engineer last year. It just sucks they are going to have to start building some more race cars because he has got a few coming.

"

The odds are the Chase field will remain the same, but it's nowhere close to a lock.

Ask Chris Buescher.

All quotes come from NASCAR media and team and manufacturer sources unless otherwise noted.

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