Olympic Tennis 2016: Preview and Prediction for Murray vs. Del Potro
Andy Murray vs. Juan Martin del Potro is a heavyweight tennis match worthy of the Olympic men’s singles gold medal. It’s the seasoned Scot against the resurgent Argentine, the familiar taking on the feel-good story of the Olympics and the year in tennis.
How has Murray been quietly improving his championship mettle in recent months? Is he now coming into his own to prove that he can eventually dethrone Novak Djokovic as the best player in the world?
"It would mean a lot, obviously," Murray remarked to the AP, via Tennis.com, about the chance to pair a singles gold medal in Brazil with the one he won in London 2012. "It's obviously not an easy thing to do. That's why it's not been done before.
Meanwhile, Del Potro has seemingly risen from the grave with his tennis career, backing up his shocking first-round victory over Djokovic with an equally impressive march to the final. How did he get it done, and does he have enough magic to cash in on one golden match?
This could be an epic clash that will excite tennis fans and Olympics sports fans from all over the globe.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Although Murray has won five of his seven career matches against del Potro, the two have not played in nearly three years. Both players have had surgeries, time off, recoveries and battles to get back into top form. Murray is now at his peak, and Del Potro is just showing that he can play top-level tennis again.
They both medaled at the 2012 Olympics, but they did not play each other.
Del Potro’s career has not been as healthy for him to reach his full potential. Murray has perhaps overachieved through his physical problems to doggedly remain one of the top few players in the world, and he’s looking for more.
Solid advantage to Murray.
Murray at the 2016 Olympics
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The headlines have been on everyone except Murray thus far. There was Roger Federer’s withdrawal, Novak Djokovic’s first-round defeat and Rafael Nadal’s amazing resurgence. Meanwhile, Murray has plugged along as a top-secret favorite.
He’s used to being the fourth tennis ball in a can that holds three, but Murray winning Wimbledon showed that he is more than comfortable in winning the championship as the second-week favorite.
Murray hammered dangerous first-round opponent Viktor Troicki and cruised past Juan Monaco. He also edged out a talented rival, Italian Fabio Fognini, who had defeated Murray in the fifth rubber of the 2014 Davis Cup matchup between Italy and Great Britain.
Another strong test was passed over American Steve Johnson. Then Murray needed a third-set tiebreaker to set up his semifinal against Kei Nishikori, which he finished off in more convincing fashion, 6-1, 6-4.
The Scot is playing like the premier defensive player in tennis. He continues to use his legs to turn defense into offense. With coach Ivan Lendl’s design, he has been more aggressive by stepping into his forehand and adding sting to his backhand.
When Murray serves well, he is extremely tough to beat. He has the confidence of a champion, playing some of his best tennis with three majors and a gold medal already in his pocket. He’s rested and ready to win that second consecutive Olympic gold medal.
Del Potro at the 2016 Olympics
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Tennis fans who have followed Juan Martin del Potro’s career might be in disbelief about the big man’s quick return to tennis. He was a young tennis talent in 2009 when he overpowered Roger Federer to win the 2009 U.S. Open.
Despite a lot of time as a top-10 player, he has missed several lengthy periods of competition with wrist injuries.
His most recent wrist injury cost him over a year of competitive play, and he is still not ranked in the top 100 in what should be his peak years at age 27.
But Del Potro’s Olympics resurgence really began in recent months with big-match wins against Dominic Thiem and Stan Wawrinka, both top-10 players who boast a lot of power.
Del Potro has fearlessly led the way with his own power. He delivered one of his career’s best performances in defeating world No. 1 Djokovic in the first round of the Olympics last week.
Since, Del Potro has held up as a favorite in the top half of the draw, rolling into the semifinals against a fellow resurgent superstar, Rafael Nadal. He rallied from a set down to take the third-set tiebreaker and the match, sending him to the gold medal match.
Del Potro’s serve held up well. But it was his forehand that kept Nadal off balance, especially when he laced the inside-out forehand across the court to Nadal’s best side. The Argentine won the important points down the stretch, and he will battle for gold.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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The biggest X-factor will be Del Potro’s conditioning. He’s played five emotionally draining matches, including two huge victories over legendary giants. He appeared to be laboring in the semifinals against Nadal, perhaps prompting some of those early big forehands to shorten rallies.
He has been winning best-of-three matches, but winning three of five matches will be a taller order for the underdog Del Potro.
Murray’s cause was perhaps enabled when he and brother Jamie lost their first-round doubles match last weekend. The Scot has been able to focus on his draw in the bottom of the bracket, and he’s focused as well as any time in his career. He should go into the final fresh and confident.
Will the Brazilian fans embrace Argentine Del Potro, perhaps giving him that extra boost of energy to get by the Scot? If they can put aside their soccer rivalry and embrace Del Potro as their continental ambassador, perhaps a close match sees Del Potro win the big points again.
But maybe Brazilians turn on the Argentine Del Potro, something noted by David Wharton of The Los Angeles Times who observed that Brazilians supported Nadal because they did not care for the soccer-like atmosphere Argentina brought.
Del Potro Will Win If...
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The outdoor hard courts at Brazil favor Del Potro’s big groundstrokes. The big man likes high hops, and the court will bring up many extra balls into his hitting zone. This will be especially important for him to dictate his forehand.
The courts also give Del Potro more time on defense. Murray would love to wear him down by moving him back and forth at the corners like he’s hustling for food money. The surface should allow Del Potro to have the time to turn on enough extra balls to throw back heavy shots at Murray.
Del Potro’s formula for a win will be a strong serve, big forehand and steely nerves. He might be tired, but he can also relax, relishing the underdog role and feeling that he is playing with house money. A quick start can further his belief and perhaps drive him to victory.
In the past, Del Potro was more lethal when he mixed in slice shots, but wrist surgeries have made him reticent to do this, unless it's more of a defensive necessity. Will he mix more slice offense, especially when Murray puts in his own package of underspin?
He’s won big matches before, so if he controls the pace and matches Murray’s efficiency, Del Potro will win.
Murray Will Win If...
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Murray has continued to improve his play on all courts, so even the slower court will not deter his groundstrokes. It’s going to help him track down some of Del Potro’s laser shots. If Murray puts on his track shoes and controls at least half the rallies and shots, he will cruise with greater margin and efficiency.
There are a couple areas that Murray must shore up. He must mix his second serve with enough pace and variety. Too many looks for Del Potro will give the Argentine the break opportunities he needs.
Furthermore, Murray must be careful not to be too cautious. He knows he can wear down Del Potro, but he doesn’t want to sit back and watch the paint dry. He must establish the perfect marriage of conservative control and opportunistic attacking.
If Murray plays the way he has the past few months, capturing titles on clay and grass, he should be a strong favorite to take home the gold on hard courts.
Murray needs to attack when needed and keep his composure. If so, he will win.
Prediction
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Del Potro is the bigger story.
Imagine if he defeats Djokovic, Nadal and Murray in one week. Winning the gold medal would be an enormous comeback near his home country. He brings in a lot of refreshing interest, especially for those fans who thought that Djokovic vs. Murray would be a foregone conclusion when the tournament started.
However, winning three of five sets against Murray is too much for Del Potro, given all the energy he has used to get to the gold medal match. It would be almost as shocking as the Djokovic match if he pulled it off against Murray, who is arguably playing the best tennis of his career.
Chalk up that second singles gold medal for Murray, who is now making unprecedented Olympics tennis history. He’s going to take the match in straight sets after Del Potro’s early charge.
Then Murray will turn his attention to winning the U.S. Open and chasing after the No. 1 ranking. There’s a lot of work to do over several months, but this gold medal would feel like just another step for the growing Scottish legend.
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