Summer Olympics 2016: Predictions for Medal Events on Day 10
Track and field, sailing and gymnastics will be front and center on Day 10 of the 2016 Summer Olympics, with a total of 17 gold medals set to be awarded Monday.
Though Team USA has dominated the overall medal count through the first nine days, Monday isn't looking so great for the Americans. Simone Biles and Laurie Hernandez will win gold and silver in the balance beam, respectively. Some combination of Allyson Felix, Natasha Hastings and Phyllis Francis will likely medal in the women's 400-meter dash. That might be it, though.
Meanwhile, it's shaping up to be a big day for France, which is projected to win three gold and two bronze medals. Kazakhstan should also have a good showing with two guaranteed medals in boxing and a likely gold in weightlifting.
The following predictions are listed in alphabetical order by event with "track" and "field" listed as separate entities.
Boxing
1 of 6
Men's Welter Semifinal No. 2 (5:30 p.m. ET)
Men's welterweight has been Kazakhstan's weight class for more than a decade. Bakhtiyar Artayev won gold in 2004, Bakhyt Sarsekbayev made it two in a row in 2008 and Serik Sapiyev extended the streak to three consecutive Olympics in London last time around.
Daniyar Yeleussinov is hoping to become the fourth name on that list, but he'll need to get through France's Souleymane Diop Cissokho before the final fight. But that was no problem three years ago, as Yeleussinov beat Cissokho 3-0 to advance to the quarterfinals of the 2013 World Boxing Championships, where he would go on to win the gold medal.
Winner: Daniyar Yeleussinov, Kazakhstan
Bronze: Souleymane Diop Cissokho, France
Men's Heavy Final (6:15 p.m. ET)
Cuba's Erislandy Savon was regarded as one of the favorites to win gold among the heavyweights, but he was no match for the freight train that is Kazakhstan's Vassiliy Levit. After winning his first match by TKO, Levit won every round in the eyes of all three judges in his quarterfinal bout against Kennedy St. Pierre of Mauritius. He went on to upset Savon in the semifinals despite losing the first round.
But Russia's Evgeny Tishchenko was even more of a favorite than Savon, having won silver at the 2013 World Boxing Championships and gold in 2015. And he has barely even broken a sweat through his first three bouts, winning each by a score of 3-0.
Gold: Evgeny Tishchenko, Russia
Silver: Vassiliy Levit, Kazakhstan
Cycling Track
2 of 6
Men's Omnium Time Trial (9:21 a.m. ET)
Men's Omnium Flying Lap (3 p.m. ET)
Men's Omnium Points Race (4:23 p.m. ET)
Omnium is essentially the decathlon of cycling, but instead of 10 events, it's only six.
Sunday featured the scratch race, individual pursuit and elimination race, and reigning Olympic gold medalist Lasse Norman Hansen dominated the first two, scoring 40 points for each win. But in the elimination race, he was shockingly the first one knocked out, finishing the day in sixth place, 20 points behind France's Thomas Boudat.
There's still time for him to catch up, though, beginning with Monday morning's time trial, which is a race to see who can cover one kilometer the fastest. After that is the flying lap, which is also a time trial, but it's just one 250-meter lap with a "flying start."
They'll finish things off with the points race, which can be pure chaos. There is a sprint every 10 laps with points awarded to the top four finishers, but riders can also get points by lapping the field. It lasts for 30 kilometers, so it's a matter of conserving energy and picking one's spots well.
Four years ago, Hansen finished second in the time trial, second in the points race and fourth in the flying lap. He'll need another day like that to get back in the mix for gold.
Gold: Thomas Boudat, France
Silver: Lasse Norman Hansen, Denmark
Bronze: Elia Viviani, Italy
Field
3 of 6
Men's Pole Vault (7:35 p.m. ET)
Germany's Raphael Marcel Holzdeppe entered the week as one of the favorites to medal, having won bronze in the 2012 Olympics, gold at the 2013 World Championships and silver in 2015. But Holzdeppe failed to qualify for the finals, opening the door for several others.
USA's Sam Kendricks may be the primary benefactor, though he might not have needed the help at all. He nailed all four of his vaults on his first attempts Saturday, building nicely on his silver medal from the World Indoor Championships this past March.
But reigning Olympic gold medalist Renaud Lavillenie will be tough to beat. The Frenchman didn't mess around with the lesser heights in qualifying, opting to go straight to the 5.70-meter height and nailing it on his second try. The 29-year-old also won gold at the aforementioned World Indoor Championships.
Gold: Renaud Lavillenie, France
Silver: Shawnacy Barber, Canada
Bronze: Sam Kendricks, United States
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Track
4 of 6
Men's 800 meters (9:25 p.m. ET)
The reigning Olympic gold medalist is still the man to beat in the men's 800-meter final. Kenya's David Rudisha won in London by nearly a full second, setting a new world record of one minute, 40.91 seconds. Rudisha also won gold at the 2015 World Championships, albeit with a considerably slower time of 1:45.84. But he has already been much faster than that this week, winning his semifinal by running a 1:43.88.
He'll be challenged by two other Kenyans in the finals, as Alfred Kipketer and Ferguson Cheruiyot Rotich both qualified with their runs Saturday night.
USA's Boris Berian won't be the favorite, but it'll be hard not to root for him. As Jere Longman of the New York Times chronicled in July, Berian was working at McDonald's two years ago and was in a public contract dispute with Nike in June. As a rags-to-riches star who fought the man along the way, a Berian gold would be the ultimate American dream.
Gold: David Rudisha, Kenya
Silver: Alfred Kipketer, Kenya
Bronze: Boris Berian, United States
Women's 400 meters (9:45 p.m. ET)
Like Sunday night's men's 100-meter final, the women's 400 meters should be a battle between USA and Jamaica. Three Americans and two Jamaicans qualified for the final, meaning they will make up more than 62 percent of the field—though Shaunae Miller of Bahamas could figure into the medal equation.
One of those Americans is Allyson Felix, who used to specialize in the 200, winning gold in that event in 2012 after taking silver in 2004 and 2008. Since shifting gears to the 400, she has become the fastest in the world at that distance, winning gold at the 2015 World Championships.
Gold: Allyson Felix, United States
Silver: Shericka Jackson, Jamaica
Bronze: Shaunae Miller, Bahamas
Weightlifting
5 of 6
Men's 105 kilogram (6 p.m. ET)
Russia's David Bedzhanyan would have been one of the favorites in this weightlifting class. He medaled in each of the past three World Championships, taking two silvers and a bronze. But with Russia's entire weightlifting team banned from the Olympics, we'll never know how he might have done.
Kazakhstan's Alexandr Zaichikov won gold at the 2015 World Championships by a margin of 10 kilograms (16 kilograms if we exclude Bedzhanyan) and enters as the clear favorite for gold in Rio. As long as he gets any medal, he'll be the fifth person from Kazakhstan to do so in Rio. Only China (six) has more weightlifting medals.
Could Zhe Yang make it seven for China in this event? If he does, it would be the first time ever China has medaled in this weight class.
Gold: Alexandr Zaichikov, Kazakhstan
Silver: Ruslan Nurudinov, Uzbekistan
Bronze: Simon Martirosyan, Armenia
Wrestling
6 of 6
Men's Greco-Roman Wrestling 85 kilogram (starts at 9 a.m, finals at 4:16 p.m. ET)
At the 2015 World Championships in September, the semifinals of the 85-kilogram Greco-Roman wrestling weight class was Zhan Beleniuk vs. Saman Tahmasebi and Rustam Assakalov vs. Rami Hietaniemi.
Look for the same four to reach the semifinals in Rio, albeit in a different combination. Reigning world champion Beleniuk would draw Hietaniemi while Assakalov would face Tahmasebi.
But if the finals are the same, look for Beleniuk to add an Olympic gold medal to his collection, as he easily took care of Asskalov 6-0.
Gold: Zhan Beleniuk, Ukraine
Silver: Rustam Assakalov, Uzbekistan
Bronze: Saman Tahmasebi, Azerbaijan
Bronze: Rami Hietaniemi, Finland
Men's Greco-Roman Wrestling 130 kilogram (starts at 9 a.m, finals at 4:40 p.m. ET)
Riza Kayaalp and Mijain Lopez know each other about as well as any wrestlers in the world. They met in the semifinals of the 120-kilogram weight class at the 2012 Olympics with Lopez winning 2-0, 1-0. Two years later, they met in the finals of the 2014 World Championships with Lopez again scoring the win. But in the 2015 Worlds, it was Kayaalp with the 1-0 win in the gold-medal match.
Needless to say, we expect to see them in the finals of this tournament as well.
Among the potential challengers to that dynamic duo, Oleksandr Chernetskyy is one of the favorites after taking bronze at the 2015 Worlds. He'll have an additional qualifying-round match that Kayaalp and Lopez avoid, but that's a small price to pay for the ability to avoid both of those juggernauts until the semifinals.
Gold: Riza Kayaalp, Turkey
Silver: Mijain Lopez, Cuba
Bronze: Oleksandr Chernetskyy, Ukraine
Bronze: Eduard Popp, Germany
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