Olympic Tennis 2016: Preview and Prediction for Monica Puig vs. Angelique Kerber
No matter who wins the gold at the 2016 Olympics in Rio, women's tennis will have three first-time medalists.
In a tournament diminished by big-name no shows and big-time upsets, Puerto Rico's Monica Puig and Germany's Angelique Kerber emerged from the semifinals and will play for a gold medal.
Puig defeated the Czech Republic's Petra Kvitova 6-4, 1-6, 6-3 and Kerber beat Madison Keys, 6-3, 7-5 in the semifinals.
It's been a topsy-turvy tournament on the women's side. There were only two previous medalists in the draw to start with. After Elina Svitolina defeated defending gold medalist Serena Williams in the third round, that blew the medal race wide open.
Contrast that with the men who have three medalists, including two gold medal winners and the defending champion left in the tournament.
Either Puig or Kerber will join the ranks of Serena and Venus Williams, Steffi Graf, Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati and Suzanne Lenglen, all gold medalists. None of those women have more than one. So a win puts Puig or Kerber on par with legends.
Puig also has a chance to win the first-ever gold medal for Puerto Rico. Kerber could become the first German woman to win a gold medal in tennis since Graf back in 1988.
After her match, Puig spoke with USA Today's Dan Wolken about what winning a gold would mean for Puerto Rico. "It would be unbelievable and the biggest honor in the world. I’m doing it more for my country. This Olympics isn’t about me it’s about Puerto Rico and I know how bad they want this. This isn’t for me this is for them.”
With history on the line, read on for the preview and prediction for the gold-medal final of the women's tennis.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Kerber leads the head-to-head 2-0. However, the two haven't played since the Rogers Cup in 2015. Kerber won that easily, 6-3, 6-2.
In their first meeting, in Brisbane, 2013, the German had to win a third-set tie-breaker.
Kerber also has the edge in experience in big matches. She's played in two Grand Slam finals this year and both were against arguably the greatest player of all time, Serena Williams.
Puig at the Olympics
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Puig reached the gold-medal round with a win over two-time Wimbledon champion Kvitova.
The Czech got off to a 3-0 start in the first set before Puig won six of the last seven games. After taking the first set 6-4, the 22-year-old saw herself in a 0-5 hole in the second. Although Kvitova went on to win that set 6-3, getting those three games helped Puig regain momentum.
Puig's improbable run began with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Slovenian Polona Hercog. The Puerto Rican then upset Russia's Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in straight sets.
Still, the hashtag #PicaPower didn't start trending until after Puig dismissed French Open champion Garbine Muguruza in the third round. That was the same round that Svitolina defeated Serena Williams.
With no other Olympic medalists left in the tournament, Puig's chances seemed as good as anybody else's.
Kerber at the Olympics
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Kerber has yet to drop a set at the Olympics, although she did have to fight off a hard-hitting and aggressive Keys in the semifinals.
Keys had several opportunities to take charge in that match. However, the German's defensive skills forced the American to go for risky winners.
Kerber did the same against Great Britain's Johanna Konta in the quarterfinals. Kerber ran down everything Konta sent her way. Officially, the British No. 1 finished with 43 unforced errors. However, some of those errors surfaced after an exasperated Konta failed to put points away against the speedy Kerber.
The German also had wins against Australia's Sam Stosur, Canada's Eugenie Bouchard and Colombia's Mariana Duque-Marino.
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The Biggest X-Factor?
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The crowd is going to be a big X-factor. The Brazilian fans bring a soccer-style atmosphere to the tennis.
All those proper rules of tennis etiquette go out the window with Brazilian fans. Neither Puig nor Kerber is Brazilian, so why should this matter? Because Brazilian fans pick a side, and once they decide their allegiance, they become nearly hostile toward the opponent.
As noted by the Associated Press (via the Denver Post): "In Brazil, spectators follow their own set of rules: Always support the underdog. Boo referees, umpires and judges whenever a decision goes against the home team. And no dig is off-limits, even if offensive."
Puig will be the underdog. Expect the fans to be solidly behind her.
Puig Will Win If...
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The slow, high-bouncing courts in Rio play to Puig's strengths—strong defense and #PicaPower.
The term "PicaPower" comes from the Spanish saying "picar piedras," which means to pick at stones, as in work hard even though tedious and for the smallest reward.
That's exactly what Puig needs to do to secure the first-ever gold medal for her country: get into the grind. Her defense and ability to survive long rallies will help her against Kerber, the game's ace retriever.
Ranked No. 34 and with a medal secure, Puig has little pressure. She's got to go out there and play like she has nothing to lose and hope the German makes a few mistakes.
She also needs to feed off the crowd and hope they get into Kerber's head.
Kerber Will Win If...
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Kerber is a Grand Slam champion with a real shot at knocking Serena Williams out of the No. 1 spot she's held for more than 180 consecutive weeks.
The German must not forget that when she steps on the court against the underdog Puig. Both players will be nervous. However, Kerber has the better game. She's the better athlete and she's survived the toughest opponents on stages far bigger than the one in Rio.
Kerber has to remain patient and force the 22-year-old into taking chances. She also has to amass easy points off that improving lefty serve.
If Kerber keeps calm and plays her game, she wins. She's better than Puig from both wings and has better shot selection.
Prediction
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If Kerber can keep calm and play her game, Puig is more likely to blink first. The German must also ignore the partisan crowd, and jumping out to a big lead can help, too.
Kerber also has to stay patient. Puig does not play as risky a game as Keys. However, the Puerto Rican also doesn't have a weapon like Keys' forehand.
The rallies will be epic, the crowd crazy and court coverage insane. However, Kerber will emerge with the gold. Yet Puig still makes history.
Kerber wins in straight sets.
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