College Basketball's All-NBA-Ready Team in 2016-17
There's a major jump in competition for basketball players going from high school to the college level, but the leap is even more significant from college to the pros. It's hard to project just how good a player is going to be in the NBA at the start of his career despite dominance in college or the preps.
Several of the college players taken in June's NBA draft are projected to be stars—teams wouldn't have wasted a pick on them if they weren't—but not necessarily during their rookie seasons. Just because someone has talent doesn't make him immediately "NBA-ready," since most rookies either play limited minutes that first season or struggle to produce in a larger role.
From the 2010-11 season, only 12 NBA rookies who played college ball managed to register 0.1 or better in the advanced statistic win shares per 48 minutes, which gauges how much that player contributed to a team's performance. According to Basketball-Reference.com, 0.1 is the NBA average for WS/48, and just three college-trained rookies topped that mark this past season: former Kentucky standouts Karl-Anthony Towns (0.151) and Willie Cauley-Stein (0.13) and Texas alum Myles Turner (0.109).
Towns is the only one from that group to surpass 1.0 in VORP, or value over replacement player, and one of 11 such rookies out of college to hit that mark from the 2010-11 season to now.
In trying to project which players from the current college field could be considered NBA-ready, you're going to see a lot of names who have yet to play a college game. That should be expected, since most of the players from the 2015-16 season who would fit the bill ended up turning pro, and most of them were freshmen.
Check out who we think are the 2016-17 college basketball players who are already good enough to make a meaningful contribution in the pros.
Grayson Allen, G, Duke
1 of 8
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'4", 185 lbs
Grayson Allen flirted with the NBA after his freshman season, one in which he hardly played until suddenly becoming an integral part of Duke's national championship run during the Final Four. He followed that with a monster sophomore year, one in which he ranked 15th nationally in scoring at 21.6 points per game.
Yet when the time came for Allen to decide on his future, he didn't even bother to take advantage of the change in NCAA rules that allows players to “test the waters” of the NBA draft and work out for pro teams with the ability to still return to school. He just opted to come back for another year, despite the fact he likely would have been drafted and given a shot to play somewhere.
Allen's offensive game is ready for the pros, since he loves to shoot and drive to the basket and isn't afraid to take contact. He attempted 252 foul shots last season, 7.7 per game, and converted 83.7 percent of them.
Lonzo Ball, G, UCLA
2 of 8Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'4", 162 lbs
We've compared Lonzo Ball to Russell Westbrook in the video above, but Bleacher Report isn't alone in the love for this incoming freshman. The comparison is not just because he's a long and lean guard who is headed to UCLA, evidenced by his spot on most 2017 NBA mock drafts.
Ball's outlook is partly the product of potential, but it's also from what he's shown to this point already: the ability (and willingness) to be both a scorer and distributor, contribute to rebounding and be invested defensively.
"His size, court vision, basketball instincts, rebounding ability and defensive playmaking will make him an eventual, legitimate triple-double threat in the Pac-12," DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz wrote. "… He'll serve as a do-it-all lead guard for the Bruins and has a chance to continue that versatility at the NBA level down the road if he continues to develop."
Ball is going to be on an offensively loaded team with UCLA, one where there are four players who averaged double figures last season. How he's able to facilitate for others while also getting his own points will help determine whether he'll be able to quickly assimilate onto an NBA team, where everyone figures to be a scoring threat.
Dillon Brooks, F, Oregon
3 of 8
Year: Junior
Height, weight: 6'7", 215 lbs
Dillon Brooks—the leading scorer, No. 2 rebounder and top assist man from the Pac-12 champion Oregon Ducks—put his name into the NBA draft but withdrew after not getting invited to the league's combine. That extra year should help him (and scouts) figure out what position he's best suited for in the future, since he wavers back and forth between the perimeter and the frontcourt.
That's assuming a foot injury that has kept him out all summer doesn't linger. Oregon coach Dana Altman referred to it only as a "problem" in July, per Steve Mims of the Register-Guard, saying there was no break. However, on Aug. 1, Mims reported Brooks had surgery on the foot, and his return is up in the air.
If Brooks can come back in time for the start of the 2016-17 season, that will give him a full complement of games for scouts to further evaluate him. If not, they may have to go more off what he's done to this point, which was average 16.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game last season.
Markelle Fultz, G, Washington
4 of 8
Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'5", 186 lbs
Washington had a pair of first-round draft picks on its roster last season in Marquese Chriss and Dejounte Murray, yet it couldn't make the NCAA tournament. It now might have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft for this season, and if Markelle Fultz can also lead the Huskies back to the tourney, he could end up being a program legend.
Fultz tops DraftExpress' 2017 mock draft, a rise aided by his MVP performance for Team USA at the FIBA Americas U18 Championship in Chile.
A player who loves to go at full speed as often as possible, the college game might slow him down since the shot clock is 30 seconds as opposed to 24 in the NBA. However, it could also allow him to be more in control and not in a rush, though his ability to hit shots while not being squared up suggests he can handle playing fast.
Josh Jackson, F, Kansas
5 of 8
Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'8", 203 lbs
Remember Andrew Wiggins? Kansas fans sure do, since after getting to see him for only one season—which ended far earlier than expected—they've been hoping to see another dynamic scorer come to Lawrence and thrive in coach Bill Self's offense-friendly system.
It sounds like Josh Jackson is going to be that guy, but as is the case in basketball nowadays, that means he's not going to be around for a while. Jackson was the No. 1 player in the 2016 recruiting class, and it seems like a matter of when he'll stand out in the NBA rather than if.
"He checks all the boxes physically and athletically for a top-flight wing prospect," Ben Stram of Today's Fastbreak wrote. "… Jackson reminds me of a more aggressive Andrew Wiggins."
Wiggins went on to be the first overall pick in 2014 and averaged 16.9 points per game en route to being NBA Rookie of the Year.
Lauri Markkanen, C, Arizona
6 of 8Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 7'0", 225 lbs
It's no secret the NBA loves foreign players—just look at the most recent NBA draft. Eight first-round picks played overseas in 2015-16, and another six were born outside the U.S. but came to America to play college ball.
Lauri Markkanen fits both of these descriptions. The Finnish-born prospect has competed for his country in international tournaments, but instead of making himself available for the draft, he's taking the college route to better adapt to the NBA game. Not that he hasn't already shown a blend of prototypical big man moves and the kind of handles and versatility that make him a matchup nightmare on the perimeter.
Just watch the video above for a visual example of the latter, along with plenty of nice defensive moves. That was from his time with Finland's U20 team at the European Championships last month in Helsinki. While his team finished 15th out of 16 countries, Markkanen averaged 24.9 points and 8.6 rebounds.
Imagine what he will be able to do at Arizona—or in the NBA—when he's not the only player for an opponent to worry about.
Ivan Rabb, F, California
7 of 8
Year: Sophomore
Height, weight: 6'10", 215 lbs
It's fair to say that Ivan Rabb not turning pro after his freshman year at California was unexpected, since players in the top 10 of a recruiting class tend not to stick around more than one season. He probably would have been drafted in the first round—possibly as a lottery pick—based simply on his potential, which makes his decision even more surprising.
But Rabb wants to be drafted based on his ability and not on what he might be capable of. Connor Letourneau of SFGate.com wrote that Rabb “was more concerned about making a rotation than going in the lottery,” and he realized that meant becoming a better defensive player.
"I know I’m not terrible defensively," Rabb told Letourneau. "But at the end of the day, I don’t want to be the person people in the NBA go at every time."
It's a refreshing—but also unique—perspective that Rabb has taken, and assuming he's able to improve in that area, it's going to cause even more NBA teams to want him as part of their immediate future.
Jayson Tatum, F, Duke
8 of 8
Year: Freshman
Height, weight: 6'8", 204 lbs
Duke teammate and fellow freshman Harry Giles is just as high on draft boards as Jayson Tatum, if not higher, but Giles is also coming back from a knee injury that wiped out his senior year of high school. As talented as he is, injury concerns always have an impact on whether a prospect is going to be ready to play right away or if he'll need to come along slowly.
Tatum has no such concerns, having stayed healthy during his prep career, and thus figures to be the Blue Devils' most impactful newcomer. He also has the kind of game that could make him an instant star in the NBA. He hasn't fallen in love with the three-point shot and isn't interested in just dunking (though he can do both).
"The wing-forward has become a master of the mid-range game full of jab steps, step-back jumpers and pivots," Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller wrote. "He almost acts like a low-post player, but instead of working the defender to get off a high-percentage shot two feet from the hoop, he does it from 20 feet away."
If he continues to hit that shot at the college level, the chances of him starting as a rookie in the NBA will go up immensely.
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information from 247Sports unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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