USA vs. Serbia: TV Time, Live Stream, Prediction for 2016 Olympic Basketball
Team USA didn't pass its first true 2016 Olympic test with flying colors, but its win streak reached 71 games nonetheless.
Extending it to 72 shouldn't be an issue because its next opponent, Serbia, isn't as threatening as its last one.
Team USA expected a gritty effort from Australia and nearly found more than it could handle, before recovering in time to escape Wednesday's possible championship preview with a 98-88 come-from-behind win.
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It's possible the Olympic field was emboldened by the contest, as Team USA in no way resembled the superpower that obliterated its first two opponents by a combined 101 points. But the outcome may prove more valuable to the favorite's psyche.
If focus was an issue amid back-to-back blowouts, then a serious scare should command the team's full attention.
"That's the first real, real international game that we've had," Team USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski said, per USA Today's Sam Amick. "The first two games we played, we were significantly better than those teams [China and Venezuela]. This is the real world now, and that was good for us."
Serbia is no Australia—the latter handled the former 95-80 on Monday—but it is several levels above China and Venezuela. The Serbians have NBA talent, including 2015-16 All-Rookie first-teamer Nikola Jokic and 2014 first-rounder Bogdan Bogdanovic. Nemanja Nedovic and Miroslav Raduljica have both played in the league, and Milos Teodosic has the skills to do so.
But Serbia is just 1-2 in Rio and suffered a 129-92 loss when these two teams met during the 2014 FIBA World Cup final. With Krzyzewski's troops on full alert following its surprise scare, neither the talent nor timing here portend another close call.
When: Friday, Aug. 12, at 6 p.m. ET
Where: Carioca Arena 1; Rio de Janeiro
Live Stream: NBC.com
Blueprint Getting Clearer
Venezuela provided the first step for those looking to dethrone the Americans—play slow and physical. Despite having zero NBA players on its roster, the Venezuelans played the first quarter to an 18-18 draw against a club with nine 2016 NBA All-Stars.
Australia took the recipe several stages further by using precise player and ball movement, exploiting USA's defensive deficiencies and oftentimes gaining the upper hand in guard play. If not for bail-out buckets by Carmelo Anthony and Kyrie Irving and gorging on the offensive glass, the Americans would no longer possess an unblemished record.
Serbia has the bodies to play physical, led by the 250-plus-pounder Jokic and Raduljica. More importantly, it has the floor general needed to disrupt the American defense. The 6'5" Teodosic has enough size, skills and smarts to make an international offense move with an assembly line's precision.
"Serbia plays extremely well together and is led by one of the maestros of world basketball in Milos Teodosic," international hoops expert Fran Fraschilla told USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. "He's in the top echelon of passers in the world. He's probably one of the top five playmakers in the world in terms of passing."
Teodosic's offensive skills could test Krzyzewski's resolve with his own point guards. Both Irving and Kyle Lowry had trouble controlling Australia's lead guards, and Teodosic is a superior table-setter.
But Serbia must actually convert those scoring chances, which isn't a given. It doesn't have a lethal shooter like Patty Mills, nor a big who matches Andrew Bogut's size-skill combination. Plus, the U.S. could fortify its defense by making a lineup change or two, perhaps playing longer stretches without a natural point guard or a traditional big.
Olympic Melo Unleashed
Carmelo Anthony's NBA credentials are elite—nine All-Star appearances, six All-NBA selections, a top-15 career scoring average and a 95-plus percent Hall of Fame probability.
But regular-season Melo has nothing on his international counterpart. The 32-year-old's 31 points Wednesday pushed him atop USA's all-time Olympic scoring leaderboard (293 and counting) and tied for its second-highest single-game output.
When the front of his jersey reads "USA," Anthony becomes the most potent scoring force ever seen on this stage. He can be the best player on a championship team—a role he's yet to fill in the NBA—and he's unstoppable once setting sights on the rim.
For starters, as NBA.com's John Schuhmann explained, Anthony runs the international ranks as a small-ball big, a role that can make him too speedy, too skilled and/or too strong to contain:
"Anthony is also a serious matchup challenge when he's playing the four, which he has done almost exclusively with the national team. In fact, over the last two Olympics, Anthony has played more center than small forward. His size allows him to either punish smaller players inside, while his skills and footwork allow him to punish bigs on the perimeter.
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For everything Australia did well Wednesday, it never found a defensive answer for Anthony. Serbia seems likely to have the same issue.
Melo's an absurdly gifted scorer, and Team USA doesn't need him to be anything else. Since he's not tasked with creating for others, he can be himself—a 6'8", 240-pound power package of outside sniping, tactical post banging and too-quick-to-cover dribble pull-ups.
"This situation, it doesn't cause for me to put the team on my back and have to create something on every play and the ball is in my hands every single play," Anthony said, per USA Basketball's official website. "I can just kind of space out, take my time, pick my spots, play off the guys I have on my team. That's all it's been."
Prediction
The talent gap between the U.S. and Serbia is tighter than the final score will indicate. This is just poor timing in a matchup with an alpha needing to reassert its dominance. Thus, an American loss to Australia would have been devastating. A near-loss, however, should be productive.
"I feel like we needed a test like that to prepare for what's ahead of us," Irving told reporters. "We definitely took some steps in the right direction and building our character and identity as a team."
Serbia could well get Team USA at its best. Coach K's teachings and Anthony's words of wisdom will both carry more meaning now that the Olympic freshmen understand they can be tested. Team USA should be dialed in from the opening tip and relentless through the final buzzer.
Serbia isn't a pushover, but it could look like one against this motivated monster.
Prediction: USA 108, Serbia 74
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