Biggest NCAA Tournament Overachievers of the Past Decade

With plenty of help from its run from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011, VCU earned the title of biggest NCAA tournament overachiever of the past 10 years.

In addition to simply remembering how many times VCU created havoc in our bracket pools, we looked back through the last 10 NCAA tournaments to mathematically show just how much these teams have overachieved.

Scores on the following slides are the cumulative seed differential of upsets. When a No. 12 seed knocks off a No. 5 seed, the former gets a score of plus-seven while the latter loses seven points. When a No. 5 seed holds serve and beats a No. 12 seed, though, no points were awarded or deducted, because that's what was supposed to happen.

Over the past 10 years, 57 teams that were underdogs by seven seed lines or more have pulled off the upset, including 11 with a differential of at least 10 seed lines. Every team in our top 10 had at least one upset that added at least seven points to their score. Several shocked the world on multiple occasions.

In the case of a tie score, the tiebreaking procedure was A) Largest seed differential in an upset, B) Total number of upsets and C) Total margin of victory in upsets. And yes, we had to go all the way to "C" to break one of the ties.

Honorable Mentions

Associated Press

Cornell made it to the Sweet 16 in 2010.

Cornell Big Red

Cornell had one heck of a run at the end of the 2000s, culminating in a trip to the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed, beating both No. 5 Temple and No. 4 Wisconsin by double-digit margins. 

Northern Iowa Panthers

Ali Farokhmanesh. 'Nuff said. And if the Panthers had been able to hold onto that big lead in the final minute against Texas A&M this past March, they would have ranked in our top five.

Oregon Ducks

Remember three years ago when the selection committee royally screwed up and gave the Ducks a No. 12 seed when Bracket Matrix had them projected as a No. 7 or No. 8 seed, and then they stomped No. 5 Oklahoma State and No. 4 Saint Louis to reach the Sweet 16? Good times.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

The Hilltoppers were on the right side of No. 12 over No. 5 upsets in back-to-back years in 2008-09. That's good enough for 14 points, but not quite enough to make the cut.

Connecticut Huskies

I thought for sure the Huskies would make the list after winning national championships as a No. 3 and No. 7 seed, but that first-round loss to No. 13 San Diego in 2008 hurt them, and during the 2011 title run, they only scored one overachiever point, thanks to the utter chaos of that year's bracket.

The No. 15 Seeds
Lehigh, Norfolk State and Middle Tennessee

Each one pulled off just one upset in the past decade, but it was worth 13 points. Considering No. 10 on our list finished with a score of 18, those bracket-busters were nearly enough.

10. Davidson Wildcats

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

When the world found out about Steph Curry

Score: 18

Overall Record: 3-5 (2008 Elite Eight)

Upsets
2008: No. 10 Davidson beat No. 7 Gonzaga (82-76)
2008: No. 10 Davidson beat No. 2 Georgetown (74-70)
2008: No. 10 Davidson beat No. 3 Wisconsin (73-56)

Lefty Driesell had a good run at Davidson back in the 1960s, but the Wildcats have only won three NCAA tournament games in the past 47 years.

They just so happened to all come in the same year as big upsets fueled by a future NBA MVP.

By now, you've no doubt heard the story of Curry's humble beginnings. A low 3-star recruit, regarded by 247Sports as the 281st-best player in his class, no major school showed any interest in Dell Curry's son. He played high school ball at Charlotte Christian and opted to remain close to home by attending Davidson.

Two years later, he became the story of the 2008 NCAA tournament, averaging 32.0 points per game in carrying the Wildcats to the Elite Eight. Georgetown (first) and Wisconsin (tied for fourth) both ranked in the top five of last week's list of the biggest NCAA tournament underachievers, thanks in part to Davidson's enthralling run.

The Wildcats are 0-3 since 2008, but they did nearly pull off two other upsets, coming within one point of knocking off No. 3 Marquette in 2013 and finishing within seven points of No. 4 Louisville in 2012.

9. Harvard Crimson

Associated Press

Siyani Chambers and head coach Tommy Amaker talk shop during the win over New Mexico.

Score: 18

Overall Record: 2-4

Upsets
2013: No. 14 Harvard beat No. 3 New Mexico (68-62)
2014: No. 12 Harvard beat No. 5 Cincinnati (61-57)

From 1939-2011, Harvard appeared in precisely one NCAA tournament, going 0-2 in the Big Dance in 1946—back when there were consolation games for national and regional third-place honors. But 2016 broke a streak of four consecutive tournament berths that included a pair of program-altering victories.

In both 2013 and 2014, defense fueled Harvard's upsets.

The win over New Mexico was only possible because the Crimson stifled Kendall Williams and Tony Snell while completely shutting out Hugh Greenwood. As a whole, the Lobos shot just 37.5 percent from the field. It was more of the same the following year when the Cincinnati Bearcats scored just 57 points while shooting 36.8 percent from the field.

What's bizarre is those teams weren't that great on defense during the regular season. Harvard ranked 145th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency in 2013, and in their final game before the 2014 NCAA tournament, the Crimson gave up 93 points to Brown. When it mattered most, though, they dug in their heels and shocked the world.

They darn near did it again in 2015, too. They took a late lead over North Carolina after Siyani Chambers converted on a four-point play, but the Tar Heels escaped with a two-point win when Wesley Saunders' game-winning attempt clanked off the back iron.

8. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Elsa/Getty Images

Thomas Walkup led the Lumberjacks to two huge upsets.

Score: 18

Overall Record: 2-4

Upsets
2014: No. 12 Stephen F. Austin beat No. 5 VCU (77-75)
2016: No. 14 Stephen F. Austin beat No. 3 West Virginia (70-56)

Like Harvard, Stephen F. Austin didn't have much of a tournament history until recently. The Lumberjacks don't go back nearly as far as the Crimson, only becoming eligible for the tournament for the first time in 1987. From that time through 2013, though, they had just one tournament appearance, scoring a mere 44 points in the loss to Syracuse in 2009.

The past three years have gone much better. Head coach Brad Underwood steered the 'Jacks to an overall record of 89-14 with a pair of tournament upsets in which they gave the favorites a taste of their own medicine.

When it comes to smothering, turnover-forcing defense in the 2010s, it hasn't gotten much better than "HAVOC" and "Press Virginia." VCU was No. 1 in the nation in both steal and turnover percentage in 2014, and West Virginia was No. 1 in steal percentage and No. 2 in turnover percentage this past year.

VCU did have a good number of steals (11) against Stephen F. Austin, but the 'Jacks had six of their own, winning by playing aggressive defense without fouling while converting on 60 percent of their two-point attempts. And against West Virginia, the final box score looked like something out of bizarro world, as the Mountaineers finished minus-16 in turnover margin in the blowout loss.

If Stephen F. Austin has another trick up its sleeve in 2017, it will look quite different, as the head coach and five of last year's eight leading scorers are no longer with the team.

7. North Carolina State Wolfpack

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

C.J. Leslie in the win over Georgetown

Score: 19

Overall Record: 5-4 (2012 and 2015 Sweet 16)

Upsets
2012: No. 11 NC State beat No. 6 San Diego State (79-65)
2012: No. 11 NC State beat No. 3 Georgetown (66-63)
2015: No. 8 NC State beat No. 1 Villanova (71-68)

Does it really count as overachieving in the NCAA tournament if a team routinely underachieved during the regular season to end up with a poor seed?

Despite opening the 2007-08 (No. 21) and 2012-13 (No. 6) seasons ranked in the AP Top 25, the NC State Wolfpack have not finished a season ranked in the past decade and have only been invited to four of the last 10 NCAA tournaments, receiving no better than a No. 8 seed in any of them. It seems like we're discussing them every year as one of those teams with more than enough talent to be dangerous in the tournament, provided they can even get into it.

In 2012 and 2015, they delivered on that potential with some major upsets.

Led by Richard Howell, Lorenzo Brown and C.J. Leslie, NC State had a good enough run in the ACC tournament to sneak into the NCAA tournament. Once there, the Wolfpack comfortably took care of San Diego State before becoming just one of the many teams to upset Georgetown in the past decade.

But their most surprising win came in 2015 in a game they shouldn't have even gotten to play.

NC State trailed No. 9 seed LSU by a 14-point margin with nine minutes remaining, but the Tigers could only manage three points the rest of the way, allowing the Wolfpack to advance on a BeeJay Anya hook shot with one second remaining. They went on to shock No. 1 seed Villanova in the round of 32, thanks in large part to Villanova's Dylan Ennis and Ryan Arcidiacono scoring a combined 10 points on 20 field-goal attempts.

6. Dayton Flyers

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

Devin Oliver and head coach Archie Miller

Score: 21

Overall Record: 6-4 (2014 Elite Eight)

Upsets
2009: No. 11 Dayton beat No. 6 West Virginia (68-60)
2014: No. 11 Dayton beat No. 6 Ohio State (60-59)
2014: No. 11 Dayton beat No. 3 Syracuse (55-53)
2014: No. 11 Dayton beat No. 10 Stanford (82-72)
2015: No. 11 Dayton beat No. 6 Providence (66-53)

A word to the wise: If the Flyers end up with a No. 11 seed in a NCAA tournament, you might want to pick them to win at least one game.

In addition to the three years represented above, Dayton was also a No. 11 seed in 2000 when it fell just one point short of knocking off No. 6 Purdue.

The big key to the Flyers' success has been three-point defense. In Dayton's five upsets, the opposition shot a combined 23-of-86 (26.7 percent) from beyond the arc, including Syracuse's infamous "Oh-for" in 2014, missing all 10 of its attempts.

Unable to hit many triples, four of Dayton's five victims were held to 60 points or fewer.

Of the bunch, the win over Ohio State was perhaps the most memorable. Not only did it produce our final image of Aaron Craft, laying on his back staring up the ceiling, but that came in the very first game of the 2014 round of 64. Thus, it immediately erased the dream of a perfect bracket for more than half the world and set the stage for a bonkers tournament that ended with a No. 7 seed beating a No. 8 seed for the national championship.

5. Ohio Bobcats

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

DeVaughn Washington (1) dunks during Ohio's upset over Georgetown.

Score: 21

Overall Record: 3-2 (2012 Sweet 16)

Upsets
2010: No. 14 Ohio beat No. 3 Georgetown (97-83)
2012: No. 13 Ohio beat No. 4 Michigan (65-60)
2012: No. 13 Ohio beat No. 12 South Florida (62-56)

Ohio has only been to the NCAA tournament four times in the last 30 years, but the Ohio Bobcats won three games in their last two trips, making a little bit of history in the process of helping John Groce become the head coach of Illinois.

2009-10 should have been a lost year for Groce's gang. The Bobcats finished in ninth place in the Mid-American Conference standings with a 7-9 record, including a near-loss to 4-28 Toledo. But something finally clicked in the MAC tournament, where they went 2-0 against Kent State and Akron after going 0-4 against them during the regular season.

They rode that wave of momentum into the NCAA tournament and shot the lights out against Georgetown, hitting 13 three-pointers in the rout of the Hoyas. Armon Bassett and D.J. Cooper combined for 55 of Ohio's 97 points.

Two years later, the Bobcats had a tenacious defense, ranking second in the nation in turnover percentage, trailing only VCU in the season after "HAVOC" became a household term. With that pressure, they almost became the first No. 13 seed to reach the Elite Eight, pushing No. 1 seed North Carolina to overtime on a night where the Tar Heels—one game after losing starting point guard Kendall Marshall to a broken wrist—committed 24 turnovers.

4. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Sherwood Brown and the rest of Dunk City

Score: 21

Overall Record: 3-2 (2013 Sweet 16)

Upsets
2013: No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast beat No. 2 Georgetown (78-68)
2013: No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast beat No. 7 San Diego State (81-71)

Two words: Dunk City.

It wasn't a long one, but Florida Gulf Coast had the most memorable Cinderella run in tournament history, knocking off No. 2 seed Georgetown and No. 7 seed San Diego State—both by double-digit margins.

But it wasn't the difference on the scoreboard, it was the style and swagger with which the Eagles flew there. Dunk City became a national phenomenon, and its legend grew with each alley-oop to Chase Fieler.

Both the Hoyas and the Aztecs were flabbergasted as Florida Gulf Coast—which only became a tournament-eligible D-I program in 2012—treated them the way the Harlem Globetrotters have been abusing the Washington Generals for decades. The Wells Fargo Center was FGCU's personal playground for 80 minutes.

The top three teams on this list each accumulated at least six upsets, but Florida Gulf Coast was able to check in at No. 4 with just one magical weekend we'll never forget.

3. Kentucky Wildcats

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Julius Randle (30) and Aaron Harrison

Score: 26

Overall Record: 24-7 (2012 title; 2011, 2014 and 2015 Final Four)

Upsets
2011: No. 4 Kentucky beat No. 1 Ohio State (62-60)
2011: No. 4 Kentucky beat No. 2 North Carolina (76-69)
2014: No. 8 Kentucky beat No. 1 Wichita State (78-76)
2014: No. 8 Kentucky beat No. 4 Louisville (74-69)
2014: No. 8 Kentucky beat No. 2 Michigan (75-72)
2014: No. 8 Kentucky beat No. 2 Wisconsin (74-73)

While Duke and Kansas finished near the top of our underachievers list by frequently earning No. 1 or No. 2 seeds before failing to live up to expectations, Kentucky managed to become one of the top overachievers by capitalizing in two of the years that it didn't flirt with going undefeated.

In the season after John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins but before Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the Wildcats had a bit of a down year. In late February, they were 19-8 and had nearly fallen out of the AP Top 25 before unexpectedly winning 10 games in a row, including knocking off the top two seeds in their region en route to the Final Four.

But that flight almost didn't get off the ground, as No. 13 seed Princeton gave them all they could handle in the first round. The Tigers led by five midway through the second half and had the game tied in the final seconds until Brandon Knight's scoop shot with two seconds remaining gave Kentucky the win.

Similarly, the run in 2014 nearly never began, as the Wildcats struggled to score in the opener against Kansas State before that phenomenal second-round game against No. 1 seed and undefeated Wichita State. But that was the year Aaron Harrison hit dagger three-pointer after dagger three-pointer, carrying Kentucky all the way to the title game as a No. 8 seed.

2. Butler Bulldogs

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Shelvin Mack and head coach Brad Stevens

Score: 26

Overall Record: 16-8 (2010 and 2011 title games)

Upsets
2007: No. 5 Butler beat No. 4 Maryland (62-59)
2010: No. 5 Butler beat No. 1 Syracuse (63-59)
2010: No. 5 Butler beat No. 2 Kansas State (63-56)
2011: No. 8 Butler beat No. 1 Pittsburgh (71-70)
2011: No. 8 Butler beat No. 4 Wisconsin (61-54)
2011: No. 8 Butler beat No. 2 Florida (74-71)
2016: No. 9 Butler beat No. 8 Texas Tech (71-61)

"The Butler did it" appeared so many times in recent years, everyone grew tired of seeing that punchline used as a headline over and over again.

In six years with the Bulldogs, Brad Stevens won 77.2 percent of his games and led them to a 12-5 record in the NCAA tournament. These things happen when you surprisingly advance to the title game in consecutive years.

What's most impressive about Butler's overachieving is how many scalps of No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are in its trophy case.

The only other team on this list with more than one upset over a top-two seed is Kentucky, and, let's be honest, Kentucky is in a different class from everyone else on the list. Yet, Butler slayed four giants en route to its title-game appearances, beating high-quality opponents along the way rather than simply benefiting from a chaotic region.

And if Gordon Hayward's half-court heave in 2010 had been more accurate by just a couple of inches, the Bulldogs would be No. 1 on the list with one of the most unpredictable national championships of all time.

1. VCU Rams

Jim Prisching/Associated Press

Joey Rodriguez with head coach Shaka Smart

Score: 29

Overall Record: 9-8 (2011 Final Four)

Upsets
2007: No. 11 VCU beat No. 6 Duke (79-77)
2011: No. 11 VCU beat No. 6 Georgetown (74-56)
2011: No. 11 VCU beat No. 3 Purdue (94-76)
2011: No. 11 VCU beat No. 10 Florida State (72-71)
2011: No. 11 VCU beat No. 1 Kansas (71-61)
2012: No. 12 VCU beat No. 5 Wichita State (62-59)
2016: No. 10 VCU beat No. 7 Oregon State (75-67)

In going from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011, VCU scored more overachiever points in two weeks (24) than any team other than Kentucky or Butler has amassed in the entire decade.

The Rams didn't just barely beat those teams, either. They bludgeoned both Georgetown and Purdue by 18-point margins before finishing with a 10-point cushion over No. 1 seed Kansas in the Elite Eight. Even toward the end of the run when opponents knew what was coming, they simply couldn't handle the pressure of Shaka Smart's signature defense.

Add in the big first-round upsets over Duke and Wichita State in 2007 and 2012, respectively, and VCU would have finished with a score of 39 were it not for the two times they were on the wrong end of tournament upsets, falling in the first round to No. 12 Stephen F. Austin and No. 10 Ohio State in consecutive years.

But even with those blunders, the Rams rank No. 1 with a little room to spare. Three different head coaches had a hand in this score—Anthony Grant was at the helm in 2007, while Will Wade orchestrated 2016's minor upset—VCU's tournament legacy will forever be intertwined with Smart.

Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com, unless noted otherwise. 

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.