USA vs. Australia: TV Time, Live Stream, Prediction for 2016 Olympic Basketball
With Team USA's throttling lesser foes while presumptive threats Spain and France appear shockingly meek, Wednesday's meeting between the U.S. and Australia suddenly looms large. It'll be the first (and possibly last) time Team USA faces a worthy challenger.
If Australia can't put up a fight, there may not be another team that can.
The Americans have amassed a gaudy 50.5-point average margin of victory after two laughers against China and Venezuela, solidifying its status as overwhelming favorites. When even halfway engaged, Team USA's defense chokes passing lanes and consumes ball-handlers. Against both its first two opponents, the U.S. blew the game open with stops that produced easy transition chances on the other end.
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Unparalleled athleticism, depth and skill have Team USA right where everyone expected it to be. Australia's position as the Americans' primary challenger is more surprising.
A decisive 87-66 win over France in its opener gave way to a 95-80 victory against Serbia on Monday. All but assured of advancing out of Group A now, the Boomers, led by Andrew Bogut and a starting five composed entirely of NBA talent, are looking to slay a giant.
For good reason, USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski is taking this next opponent seriously, telling reporters: "They can beat us. We know that, and we'll prepare accordingly."
When: Wednesday, Aug. 10, at 6 p.m. ET
Where: Carioca Arena 1; Rio de Janeiro
Live Stream: NBC.com
Read the Recipe
It'd be overstating things to say Venezuela's 18-18 first-quarter draw with Team USA on Monday was even a minor threat. But a team with more talent and, say, a certain comfort with the aggressive, bruising style Venezuela employed could glean hints about how to be something more than a temporary nuisance for the U.S.
"We know Australia is going to be a tough one for us just from how physical they are, how they like to play," Carmelo Anthony told reporters.
The blueprint Venezuela laid out is the same one any underdog should use against an overwhelmingly talented favorite: slow the pace down, ugly the game up and hope for the best.
That third element, pure luck, will still be the most important for Australia. Because although there's no doubt the Aussies boast much more talent than Venezuela (Bogut, Aron Baynes, Joe Ingles, Matthew Dellavedova and Patty Mills are all battle-tested), Australia's best players wouldn't even sniff the U.S. roster.
Falling short of Team USA's talent is no great failure. In fact, heading into Wednesday's meeting, Australia might be the new silver-medal favorite.
If it heeds the handful of lessons from Venezuela's losing effort and gives the U.S. a game, it would solidify that status.
No Autographs, Please
Bogut and his teammates won't be starstruck.
"If we go out there and we're intimidated by them and trying to get our shoes signed before the game, and a signed jersey, then we're in the wrong mindset," he told Sam Amick of USA Today. "[Facing the Americans is] the ultimate test. It's the best team in the world, the best players in the world, so I think if we go out there with the right mindset and compete with them, win or lose we'll be happy with that."
Australia should be relatively comfortable against Team USA because its best players have years of NBA reps to lean on. Moreover, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes are hardly strangers to Bogut. And Dellavedova battled Kyrie Irving in practice for three seasons.
"I would pick him up full court every day, and he probably didn't like it much at first," Dellavedova told USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt.
If that familiarity leads to comfort and solid execution, it could be big for Australia, according to John Schuhmann of NBA.com:
"Australia will have two ball-handlers—Matthew Dellavedova and Patty Mills—who run the pick-and-roll better than anybody the U.S. has faced in its five exhibition games or its two games in Rio. Mills (47 points in two games) has been Australia's leading scorer, while Dellavedova has tallied 23 assists and just one turnover in the two wins. They're bench guys in the NBA, but they'll still test a defense that has only been together for three weeks.
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Team USA hasn't had to defend with sustained precision yet, and Australia could force the U.S. to sharpen up for the first time in this tournament. If any of the malaise that marred long stretches of its games against China and Venezuela resurfaces, maybe America will find itself in its first real fight of the Olympics.
Prediction
Saying Australia is equipped to be competitive is different than saying it can win—no matter what Coach K tells the press.
Australia is strong up front, as well as at the point guard position, and it will absolutely introduce an intensity Team USA hasn't yet seen in Rio. But the U.S. swingmen will prove too much for the Boomers, and there's a good chance we finally see Krzyzewski toss out a five-wing lineup rife with athleticism, length and Swiss Army skills.
It won't matter how well Australia executes its pick-and-rolls or how committed it is to muddying up the game—not if Kevin Durant is on the floor with Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green.
Australia's lumbering bigs lack the pace to run with that group, and its undersized guards don't have the size.
The Boomers are good enough to get Team USA's full attention, and that's the problem.
Prediction: USA 94, Australia 68
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