Olympic Swimming 2016: Complete Preview for Men's 200-Meter Individual Medley

The men's 200-meter individual medley was hyped at the Olympic trials. 

Why? Because it's the meeting ground of two irresistible forces of U.S. swimming: Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps.

You'll hear plenty about Phelps and Lochte heading into this race, as you should. It's most likely Lochte's last individual event in Olympic competition. (We say "most likely" because we don't trust things like retirement announcements. If we did, Phelps wouldn't be in Rio.)

But this is not a two-man race. Based on recent form, Phelps and Lochte might not even be the safest bets for gold and silver. And whenever the home country has contenders, it can be the wildest of wild cards.

Read on for a complete preview of the men's 200 IM.

Schedule, TV and Live Stream Info

FABRICE COFFRINI/Getty Images

Don't miss Macedonia's Marko Blazhevski in Heat 1.

Schedule

Aug. 10: Heats, 1:09 p.m. ET. The first heat has the six slowest swimmers. Heat 2 has Ryan Lochte, Brazil’s Henrique Rodrigues and both Australians, Travis Mahoney and Thomas Fraser-Holmes. Heat 3 has Japan’s Kosuke Hagino and China’s Wang Shun. The fourth and final heat has Michael Phelps and Brazilian favorite Thiago Pereira.

Aug. 10: Semifinals, 10:29 p.m. ET

Aug. 11: Final, 10:01 p.m. ET

TV/Live Stream Info

Heats are hit-and-miss in terms of being broadcast live, but NBC lists no event other than swimming in its noon-2 p.m. broadcast block, and it’s tough to imagine something taking priority over Lochte and Phelps. If you want to make sure you see every heat—not just the ones with the big names—as they happen, you’ll need to hit the live streams at NBCOlympics.com.

Semifinals? Final? It’s a safe bet NBC will show them live. If you want different announcers or just prefer to watch your swimming with a buffering delay of a few seconds, go to the live streams online.

Top Storylines

Phelps vs. Lochte, One More Time

This event belongs to Michael Phelps. He has three straight gold medals, and he won world championship gold in 2003, 2005 and 2007.

But fellow American Ryan Lochte has been a giant in the event from 2009 onward. He won the title in Phelps’ absence in 2009, taking down Phelps’ world record in the process. Then he beat Phelps head to head in 2011, again besting the world record.

Lochte isn’t the multi-event swimmer he used to be—this is his only individual race of the Games. But he still holds the world record of 1:54.00, a record he set after high-tech swimsuits were banned. (See Swimming World’s comparison of “tech suit” to “textile” records from 2012.)

To this day, Phelps and Lochte are the only swimmers to break the 1:55 barrier. Phelps did it again (1:54.75) in the 2015 U.S. championships. Lochte last did it (1:54.98) in the 2013 world championships (h/t FINA database).

Brazilian Spoiler

Thiago Pereira has been chasing the Americans for years and is getting closer—third place in 2013 worlds, second in 2015 (albeit in Phelps’ absence both times).

The Brazilian crowds have rallied behind their home favorites. What sort of boost will Pereira get?

Generation Gap

Lochte (32) and Phelps (31) are over 30, and they’ve spent 12 years sharing the Olympic and world championship podium with Pereira and Hungary’s Laszlo Cseh, who has not entered this race. Pereira is 30. Can they hold off a gaggle of early twentysomethings led by Japan’s Kosuke Hagino and China’s Wang Shun?

Hagino has the fastest time of the year—1:55.07, compared to the 1:55.91 Phelps posted at the Olympic trials—and he already has gold in these Games from the 400-meter medley.

Athletes to Watch

Adam Pretty/Getty Images

A gold medal? I've already got one.

Michael Phelps, United States

He’s not just an internet meme. He’s the greatest of all time, and it’s hard to imagine betting against him in one of his best events.

Ryan Lochte, United States 

Ryan Lochte has a long injury history, including a knee injury suffered when a fan ran into him into 2013, USA Today's Rachel Axon reported. He was ailing through the Olympic trials this summer, which explains why this is his only individual event. (He was also in the 4x200-meter freestyle relay.)

But he’s won four straight golds at the FINA world championships, and aside from the relay, he's focused squarely on this race.

Kosuke Hagino, Japan 

The future has arrived. You might say it arrived four years ago, when the then-17-year-old Japanese swimmer edged out Michael Phelps for bronze in the 400-meter individual medley in London. He then took silver in two events, including the 200 IM, at the 2013 world championships.

He missed the 2015 world championships after fracturing his elbow in a bicycling accident, but he has come back to post the fastest time of the year so far.

And it’s safe to say he likes the pool in Rio, having already won gold in the 400 IM.

He’s a respectful rival of Phelps and Lochte, saying, “It’s a buzz to race against them,” per Loretta Race of SwimSwam. But he’s a threat to take gold away from them.

Who Are the Sleepers?

Emmanuel Wong/Getty Images

Wang Shun

Henrique Rodrigues, Brazil

Could Thiago Pereira lose to a fellow Brazilian? He did last year at the Pan American Games, where Henrique Rodrigues posted a personal best and Pan Am Games record to take the win. That time was 1:57.06, so he’ll need to cut a second or so off that to make the podium.

Wang Shun, China

I can’t resist—will everybody Wang Shun tonight? Sure, if he can duplicate or better the 1:56.81 that put him on the world championship podium last year. He’s only 22, so he’s only going to get better.

Thomas Fraser-Holmes, Australia

He doesn’t have the times or medal history to be counted among the contenders. But he’s from Australia, a country with a rich swimming history, so there’s that.

Medal Predictions

CHRISTOPHE SIMON/Getty Images

Never gets old, does it?

Ryan Lochte is the biggest question mark here. What does he have left in the tank at this age and after all those injuries? Will it help him to have a light schedule in Rio? Will that be enough to keep Thiago Pereira and the younger swimmers off the podium?

If Lochte is at or near his old self, though, it’s a three-man race. Then it boils down to the classic question of youth versus experience.

Kosuke Hagino has the faster recent times. But Michael Phelps has been there and done that, over and over. He knows how to prepare and taper for the Olympics.

Phelps might be more motivated by some of the more testy rivals he’ll face in other races. Maybe Hagino is being smart as well as polite by saying only nice things about Phelps. But Phelps surely wants this race, too.

Gold: Michael Phelps, United States

Silver: Kosuke Hagino, Japan

Bronze: Ryan Lochte, United States