Olympic Swimming 2016: Complete Preview for Men's 4x100-Meter Medley

In all sincerity, the only team on the planet that could beat the United States in the men's 4x100-meter medley relay is a team of great white sharks.

Hyperbole? Not really.

According to James Sutherland of Swim Swam, the Americans are undefeated in the event at the Olympics, with the lone “defeat” coming in 1980 when the United States boycotted the games. The men’s medley relay is about as much of a lock for the U.S. as there is in Rio.

But don’t tell that to the Aussies.

Well, we’ll get to that, because as heavily favored in this event as the Americans are, there are a few teams that pose a threat.

Tread water right here as we preview the men’s 4x100-meter medley relay.

Schedule, TV and Live Stream Info

Martin Meissner/Associated Press

Stream the relay on NBCOlympics.com and catch the final live on NBC. All times ET.

Friday, Aug. 12

Heat 1, 2:48 p.m.

Countries: Italy, Russia, Germany, Australia, Great Britain, Poland, Canada, Lithuania

Heat 2, 2:58 p.m.

Countries: Greece, South Africa, Japan, United States, France, Brazil, Hungary, China

Saturday, Aug. 13

Final, 10:04 p.m.

Top Storylines

Michael Sohn/Associated Press/Associated Press

Australia's Mitch Larkin will look to get his team out front early.

Ryan Murphy vs. Mitch Larkin

For those disappointed with Batman vs. Superman, this opening-leg bout in the final (one presumes) will be backstrokers Ryan Murphy of the United States and Mitch Larkin of Australia.

Murphy won gold in the 100-meter backstroke in an Olympic-record time of 51.97 seconds, while Larkin finished in fourth place just 0.46 seconds behind.

“That was a really fast final," Murphy said, per Rachel Lutz’ NBCOlympics.com story after his record-breaking win. "Everyone stepped up their game, and I was lucky that my game was a little bit better tonight. I’m super happy with the result, and it hasn’t really sunk in yet.”

Who will be the rabbit here? It’s 100 meters of Speedos-to-the-wall action, and this race within the race will be every bit as thrilling as the entire relay.

Will the Americans Break the World Record?

For those bent on pure nationalism, the gold medal is enough, but what about those who want total and complete world domination? Then it’s about world records and the shattering thereof.

If you’re a foreign competitor, the following progression of world records is a bummer of exponential proportions. The United States has been the only world record holder in this event since 1971. Before that? East Germany had a minor reign with the record. Connect your own dots there.

Led by Mark Spitz, the Americans have never relinquished its hold on this record. In 1971, the time that started it all was three minutes, 50.4 seconds, a full four seconds better than the Germans at the time.

Fast-forward 38 years, and the time has since shrunk to 3:27.28. And according to Swim Swam, the projected winning American time is 3:27.7. Can the U.S. be faster?

Thanks to South Africa’s Chad le Clos, he awakened the sleeping bear inside Phelps, so you know Phelps is something like a full second faster now. 

The Americans’ greatest competitor is the clock and history. They can’t see that yellow line floating across the pool, but we can. And even though they can’t see it, they can feel it, and you know Nathan Adrian, Team USA’s freestylist, will be gliding along that line as he approaches the wall for the final time.

Will the Russians Feel the Wrath of the Crowd?

The Russians no doubt will field a barrage of boos due to the widespread feeling that many of its athletes used banned substances.

On the surface, it feels black and white. That’s how Team USA’s Lilly King sees it. She railed against dopers at home and abroad, but at age 19, she’s far too young/naive to see how nuanced it can be. Maybe it’s not so simple.

Thanks to this wonderful column by Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post, you get a different side of—and you walk feeling a deep sense of empathy for—Yulia Efimova, Russia’s silver medalist in the 100-meter breaststroke and vilified PED-user.

There must be untold pressure in Efimova’s home country, which is why she trains in the Los Angeles. And while the Russian men in this 4x100-meter medley relay are predicted to finish seventh, these four may hear the boos too.

Hopefully, for their own well being, less than what Efimova heard the other night.

Athletes to Watch

Morry Gash/Associated Press

Adam Peaty after winning the 100-meter breaststroke.

Adam Peaty, Great Britain

Adam Peaty broke his own world record in 100-meter breaststroke and barely let that 57.13 winning time sink in.

“I'm not going to settle for this,” Peaty said, per Jonathan McEvoy’s of the Daily Mail. “I'm going to push forwards.”

It’s easy for the coverage of the Olympics, especially in this country, to focus solely on the Americans. If Peaty can up his game once more during his leg, that should put his team in a solid position to medal.

Chad le Clos, South Africa

Le Clos, creator/inducer of #Phelpsface, will swim the butterfly leg for his team.

But where will he be? How far behind will he be by the time Phelps hits the water?

So Le Clos taunted Phelps in the semifinal heat of the 200-meter butterfly, setting the stage for the final.

At one point he even said, per GlobalNews.ca, “I’m not afraid of Michael Phelps. That’s what everyone keeps saying ‘oh you’re taunting him.’ I’m not taunting nobody. I said before that I hope he’s in good form because I want to race the best and I’m not afraid to face him one on one.”

Imagine a scenario where you taunt someone with over 20 Olympic medals. Why not tread water with raw beefsteak on your hands in shark-infested ocean? Same. Thing.

So if Le Clos wants to take another peak at Phelps in the pool, it’ll be the raw turbulence of Phelps’ wake.

Xu Jiayu, China

Underestimate China at your own risk. A population of over one billion people tends to produce a darn-good athlete.

Xu Jiayu, China’s leading backstroker, took the silver medal in the 100-meter backstroke in between the two Americans.

His opening leg will give China a solid start, maybe enough to keep his team in medal contention. The bronze will be made possible by his opening leg.

Who Are the Sleepers?

Michael Sohn/Associated Press

Australia's Cameron McEvoy will be the Aussies' great chance at catching Team USA.

Australia

The Aussies’ best time since the 2012 London Games is 3:30.08 in this event, a mere .15 seconds behind the Americans’ best time of 3:29.93.

This foursome is the only team that’s in the same orbit as the United States.

“Freestyle is the one area where the Aussies have a clear advantage over the U.S.,” wrote Swim Swam’s James Sutherland, “with [Cameron] McEvoy being the fastest man in the world by nearly seven tenths of a second.” 

So if the first three legs don’t put Team USA in front by a several seconds, the Aussies could strike.

Great Britain

Any time a particular team has one or more swimmers with a world record in his discipline, you need to respect them.

Great Britain’s Peaty is such a swimmer with his world record in the 100-meter breaststroke.

We already noted that he’s hungry for more, and if he can level up his other three teammates, that could put GB in the medal hunt.

France

Seventy-five percent of France’s team is what you might call pretty darn good. The problem in a relay of this nature is: You truly are only as strong as your weakest link.

In the case of France, that weak link is Theo Bussiere in the breaststroke. His best time of 1:01.35 is painfully slow, especially when you consider that Peaty just threw down a time more than four full seconds better.

Say Bussiere swims the leg of his life and gets under a minute, then he buys more time for Jeremy Stravius, Mehdy Metella and Florent Manaudou to work their talent and keep France in the hunt for bronze.

Medal Predictions

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

You don’t need the power of clairvoyance to see into the future of this race. Unless a Team USA swimmer decides to cannon ball into the water, every other team races for silver and bronze.

On top of that, this could be Phelps’ final race in the Olympics. He may come back for the 2020 Japan Games, but assuming he doesn’t, what better way for this team than to send him out with yet another gold medal?

Teams like Australia and Great Britiain will be within a few strokes of the United States, but the proof is in the pool: Team USA is projected to finish nearly two seconds faster than its nearest competitor.

The event on the whole will be explosive, and maybe the most exciting three-and-a-half minutes of the first week, but when it’s all over, America’s greatest one-hit wonders—Francis Scott Key and John Stafford Smith—will be blasting loud Saturday night.

Gold: United States

Silver: Australia

Bronze: Great Britain