Olympic Tennis 2016: Predictions for Top Men's and Women's Stars in Rio
Get ready to witness the biggest tennis stars at the 2016 Olympics. Will anyone stop American Serena Williams from winning multiple gold medals? Can Novak Djokovic dethrone Andy Murray to become the new Olympics men’s singles champion?
Both the men’s and women’s draws are stacked with formidable challenges, and this preview provides sports fans with a brief introduction to the top players and how they are expected to perform. There are plenty of worthy challengers who will make it difficult for several of the best players to advance, and there will be memorable upsets.
Tennis is a fairly recent addition to the modern Olympics, as we noted in our men’s preview. This is a rare and proud opportunity for the following 10 superstars to chase after coveted medals for their country.
Madison Keys Will Lose Before the Quarterfinals
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Tennis fans have been waiting for 21-year-old Madison Keys to break into the upper echelon of superstars. She’s a newly minted member of the top 10 with a big serve, thundering groundstrokes and the talent to be the future of tennis.
Her draw gives her an easy first-round match against Danka Kovinic, but then the challenges would likely see her vie against athletic world No. 38 Kristina Mladenovic and either Ana Ivanovic or Carla Suarez Navarro in the third round.
Then it could be a quarterfinals duel against the savvy talents of Agnieszka Radwanska and a semifinal encounter versus world No. 2 Angelique Kerber.
We like Keys a lot, but brackets rarely hold true to form, and her variety of dangerous opponents will be too much to get a medal.
There’s less than half a chance that she gets through Radwanska in the quarterfinals and more likely that Keys will fall in Round 2 or 3 against underrated, tough opponents. She presses too much too often, and the unforced errors will be her undoing on the Olympic stage.
But mark Keys down for a gold or silver medal in the 2020 Olympics.
Rafael Nadal Will Not Win a Medal
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Spaniard Rafael Nadal is once again a tennis dog, not really expected to win the big prize and coming off an injured wrist. The King of Clay will have to come back to competitive tennis on hard courts after more than two months on the sideline. Will he have the timing and conditioning to make a run?
Nadal might only be a 50-50 bet to get through strong Argentine Federico Delbonis in the first round. Oddly, it might be better for Nadal that this match is on hard courts because Delbonis drops his level of play a lot more on the surface (31 percent winning percentage) than his favored clay (59 percent). Nadal has also been a great player on hard courts, not just clay, so the difference is not so pronounced.
If he survives Delbonis, Nadal could have an easier matchup in the second round against a softer hitter in Andreas Seppi. Then it would be a tennis fan’s dream to see Nadal match up against 19-year-old Croatian Borna Coric in the third round, a rising talent who defeated Nadal nearly two years ago.
Maybe Nadal finds momentum and crushes David Goffin in the quarterfinals. But there’s simply no way he defeats world No. 1 Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. Djokovic has owned Nadal for seven straight victories and 11 of 12 dating back nearly three years.
Nadal won the 2008 Olympics gold medal when he was the best player in tennis, but tennis years are dog years, which means about 56 years in measuring his career.
Best-case scenario for Nadal is the bronze medal, but we’re picking him to lose before the quarterfinals. He needs more match play, and we don’t know if he will have confidence to play with his previously injured wrist or if he can recover with plenty of rest and rejuvenation between matches.
Agnieszka Radwanska for a Silver Medal
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If you’ve never seen Poland’s Radwanska play tennis, do yourself a favor and prepare to enjoy one of the most creative shotmakers in tennis.
Radwanska is only about 123 pounds and 5'8", according to her WTA biography, but she has wonderful control of her shots. She changes paces, uses dropshots and lobs, and spreads them around from the forecourt to the baseline corners. She’s a modern throwback to tennis in all its variety.
The most difficult thing for Radwanska is to get through multiple power hitters late in major tournaments. She peaked as the 2012 Wimbledon runner-up, but she has usually been in the mix as a top-five player who is still looking for her dream title.
Radwanska is primed for a run at an Olympics medal, and we predict she will get one. She has a fairly soft draw in the bottom of the bracket and probably would not be tested until the quarterfinals against either Keys or Suarez Navarro.
Radwanska is a more proven player and should get into the semifinals, possibly against Kerber. If so, it could be a coin-toss match with either of them likely getting a shot at Serena Williams in the gold-medal match.
If Radwanska could get gold, and we might give her about a 10-20 percent chance, it would be her career’s greatest achievement. However, a silver or bronze is more likely, and we think she will get the former. Read the Kerber slide later in this column to find out how.
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Marin Cilic Will Not Survive Very Tough Draw
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Marin Cilic might be the most likely player not named Djokovic or Murray to win gold in men’s singles tennis. The talented Croatian, who won the 2014 U.S. Open, possesses all-around abilities that should make him a fixture in the top five of the ATP rankings.
His serve is powerful, his forehand deadly and he hits heavy groundstrokes that can saw off an opponent’s racket. He’s also got a calm demeanor, perhaps too relaxed, which enables him to treat pressure as fairly routine.
However, Cilic faces a very dangerous first-round opponent in Grigor Dimitrov, perhaps the toughest draw for one of the top players. Dimitrov can match Cilic’s athleticism, and if the Bulgarian has his day, he will be the highlight feature with spectacular shots and an opportunity to play on. Cilic must bank on his consistency, and odds are he will get through Dimitrov.
From there, a third-round possibility against Gael Monfils could spell trouble. The Frenchman is playing well, and like Dimitrov, he has a lot of talent that can exploit top players like Cilic. In a best-of-three match, Monfils could pull off the upset.
Will he have enough to topple Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals? The brutal draw continues. Cilic will have to be lights-out to power through a speedy, defensive dynamo like Nishikori who is intelligent about when to go for his shots and how to move his opponents to the corners.
Though Cilic could very well score any of the three medals, we think it’s unlikely he will get through the three players mentioned above plus Murray and Djokovic in the semifinals and final.
Cilic will crash before the semifinals.
Garbine Muguruza Will Suffer an Early Exit
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The most exciting young player on the women’s tour is Spaniard Garbine Muguruza—the new French Open champion. She’s charismatic with a beaming smile and confident personality, but most importantly, she’s got a powerful game that can knock over anyone in the world.
Muguruza is more than a good server. She’s honed topspin power and developed exceptional footwork to put her at No. 4 in the world. Many observers feel Keys and Muguruza are the future of women’s tennis with their big-hitting talents.
The problem with Muguruza is she can inexplicably drop matches to inferior players. It’s fair to question if she concentrates as well against lesser opponents or in the early rounds in less glamorous tournaments. It won’t be easy for her to get an Olympics medal in singles, either.
Jelena Jankovic is no pushover in the first round. The Serb is a former No. 1-ranked player, though she has not won a Grand Slam title. She’s underachieving with her ranking just inside the top 30 for the moment, but she has nothing to lose against the favored Muguruza.
Other tricky opponents include Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Venus Williams or Timea Bacsinszky and all this before a possible semifinals match against Serena Williams.
Muguruza has not been playing A-level tennis since her French Open victory. She could turn it on and streak to the gold medal, but we see her unable to crack Serena in the semifinals.
Will she play with determination to win a bronze medal? We will take the steadier Radwanska for bronze. No medal for Muguruza and possibly an early exit.
Kei Nishikori to Win the Bronze Medal
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Japanese star Nishikori is starving for a big title. The world No. 6 is an impressive package of defensive retriever and attacking baseliner, but the jury is still out on whether he can deliver in the championship moments.
He is getting accustomed to crashing the semifinals or final in top tournaments, but will he have enough to win an Olympic medal?
In all likelihood, Nishikori will breeze through his first three opponents. Perhaps only Philipp Kohlschreiber of Germany can test him in the third round, but Nishikori’s ground game should be an overwhelming favorite.
We’re picking Nishikori to get through the quarterfinals against a talented top-20 player like Monfils, Cilic or Dimitrov. On to the semifinals.
Nishikori has enough to threaten Murray in the semifinals, but he has lost six of seven matches head-to-head against the Scot. Murray has little trouble with Nishikori’s crosscourt angles and is superior in dictating play. In short, Murray is better at what Nishikori likes to do. No upset here.
Instead, we are picking Nishikori to come away with the bronze medal. It’s not the dream, and it’s another representation of coming up short, but someday he will appreciate being third on the world’s biggest sporting stage.
Why Angelique Kerber Will Fall in the Semifinals
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Tennis’ biggest surprise of 2016 is Germany’s Kerber. Formerly a player who lived on the edge of the top-10 rankings, Kerber rose to prominence with one of the most spectacular runs to an Australian Open title, defeating Serena Williams. She’s a left-hander who uses her legs to track down tough balls and return them with flat variety and the kind of tenacity that has her at No. 2 in the world.
But winning a gold or silver medal will not be easy. Kerber must grind her way through the draw when she is facing players equal to or greater than her raw talent. For instance, Sloane Stephens or Eugenie Bouchard have the ability to upset her in the second round.
Maybe Johanna Konta or Svetlana Kuznetsova overwhelms Kerber’s defensive-offensive attack in the quarterfinals. The German is a rhythm player who must fight for every point, and she will. She’s gained the confidence to compete and defeat the very best, but she is also vulnerable to upsets.
We’re going to back the 28-year-old to get to the semifinals, but we’re taking Radwanska in an upset. The Polish player can match Kerber’s foot speed and is perfectly adept at redirecting her shots from strange angles and positions on the court. Kerber will have to settle for a possible bronze-medal match.
Andy Murray Will Fight Hard but Settle for Silver
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It used to be Roger Federer and Nadal who were usually penciled into the finals of major tournaments. Then Djokovic and Murray complicated matters with their determined and successful runs at major titles. Murray has always been a distant fourth in the pecking order, but he’s playing some of the best tennis of his career right now and is fresh off winning Wimbledon.
Quite frankly, Murray should not be tested in getting to the semifinals, but the Scot also has a way of turning early-round cupcakes into barn burners. The good news is that he’s able to stay steady and win against almost everyone on the planet. He would be a strong favorite to defeat Kei Nishikori in the semifinals and match up with Novak Djokovic in the final.
It’s the most redundant pick in men’s tennis, but Murray will have a long, spirited match against Djokovic until the Serb turns it on at crucial times and pulls away for the gold medal. There will be long rallies and great defense; it will be a physical and mental war of attrition. We could get three sets.
Not so bad for Murray, however. He will always have that 2012 London gold medal he won on Wimbledon grass.
Serena Williams and the Double Gold
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Unless Serena Williams isn’t sharp, the world No. 1 should be an overwhelming favorite to win the gold medal. There will be a few speed bumps in the way such as Alize Cornet, Elina Svitolina, Petra Kvitova, Caroline Wozniacki or Roberta Vinci. None of them can beat Serena when she serves well and dominates with her forehand.
Muguruza is really the only star who can step up and trade blows with Serena, and it’s a possibility in the semifinals, although we are picking the Spaniard to exit earlier than that. However, it would be the most dangerous match for Serena and the second likely reason to project for the American not winning gold.
The biggest question will be if Serena defeats herself. While she’s still extraordinary, she’s also more vulnerable than a year ago. She’s been defeated by Vinci, Kerber and Muguruza in Grand Slam matches, and players have to feel there’s always a chance if she is worn down or off her game.
But Brazil will be one week and six matches. Take Serena for the gold once again, tying Steffi Graf with two Olympic singles medals and throw in a fourth gold medal with doubles partner and sister Venus. This will establish her as the most successful tennis Olympian ever.
Novak Djokovic Will Wear the Gold Medal
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Anything less than the gold medal will be a disappointment for world No. 1 Djokovic, such is the standard for one of history’s greatest players at his absolute peak.
Fresh off becoming only the third player ever to hold the Grand Slam (winning all four majors in a row) by winning on grass, hard courts and clay, Djokovic has earned his immortality.
But it’s also not easy, and even Djokovic is not infallible. He lost to American journeyman Sam Querrey in the first week at Wimbledon before rebounding to win Canada’s Rogers Cup. Djokovic grinds with his amazing defense, offensive precision and the abilities to make other players press and miss.
Oddly enough, he must defeat Juan Martin del Potro in the first round. It was Del Potro who defeated Djokovic in the 2012 Olympics for the bronze medal. Times have changed, and the Argentine has only come back in recent months from chronic wrist problems. Djokovic should breeze unless Del Potro is able to lock horns with a clean day of power groundstrokes.
Jack Sock could be a dangerous opponent in the third round. The American has a big forehand, and if he can have a good day with his serve and backhand, he could make things difficult for Djokovic.
The quarterfinal could be equally dangerous with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and his hard-hitting strokes. He’s an upgrade over Sock with more experience to boot.
And then a possible two matches against Nadal and Murray in order to strike for Olympic gold in singles. That’s quite a lineup, certainly more difficult than the Scot faces in the bottom of the bracket.
But there’s no reason to bet against Djokovic. He’s learned to play under pressure, rise above fans who root harder for his opponents and thrive through the adversities of pivotal points.
Djokovic will wear the gold medal and notch another important milestone for his legendary resume.
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