Realistic Expectations for Memphis Grizzlies Rookie Wade Baldwin IV in 2016-17
The Memphis Grizzlies set themselves up this offseason for the present and future at the point guard position by re-signing Mike Conley, drafting Wade Baldwin IV in the first round and signing former Kentucky guard Andrew Harrison to a three-year contract.
The Grizz are banking on Baldwin and Harrison backing up Conley by committee or one of the two emerging as a viable NBA point guard this season.
"All I know is that I'm going to let those guys play with a lot of freedom. I'm going to try to put them in situations to be successful," new head coach David Fizdale told Ronald Tillery of the Commercial Appeal. "We're going to trust them. There's a chance for both of those guys to play for me during the year."
Baldwin has the higher upside of the two. He is 6'4" with a 6'11 ¼" wingspan, shot 42.2 percent from deep in two seasons at Vanderbilt and has athleticism that has drawn comparisons to Russell Westbrook.
"One of my assistant coaches said he seems to follow Russell Westbrook's game," Wichita State head coach Gregg Marshall told NBA.com's Chris Dortch. "You see guys follow or emulate certain NBA players. And he's got some of that. And so obviously he's ultra-talented, long, can get to the rim, can shoot it deep, has a nice stroke."
(Let's pause, momentarily, to note that those comparisons are far-fetched. Baldwin shows off some explosion, but he's not close to the level of Westbrook.)
The rookie guard flashed some of that potential in the NBA Summer League with several highlight finishes, but he also displayed the inconsistency that limited his team's success and kept him from being a real star at Vanderbilt.
| 2015-16 (at Vandy) | 14.1 | 5.2 | 2.8 | .427 | .406 |
| NBA Summer League | 10.8 | 2.5 | 3.3 | .286 | .000 |
Team Fit
Baldwin's turnover numbers and poor shooting during the summer league will give Fizdale pause before penciling him into the rotation. But the Grizzlies were unleashing Harrison and Baldwin over the summer to see what they had in both.
Baldwin would benefit from less freedom and a simpler role during the season, and there are reasons to give him a shot. Mainly, Fizdale plans to push the tempo and help the Grizzlies evolve from grit and grind to a more pace-and-space style, according to CBS Sports' Matt Moore.
Baldwin's speed will be useful in such a shift.
Baldwin thrived in the open court and when he was able to drive downhill. Give him a head of steam, and he'll embarrass a shot-blocker at the rim. Prince Ibeh learned that the hard way:
While Baldwin struggled shooting the ball and finishing at the basket, he was able to get there and draw fouls. He averaged seven free throws per game in the summer league, and he shot a solid 82.1 percent at the line.
Baldwin also looked solid operating out of the pick-and-roll, and that was his biggest strength at Vandy as well. His long arms help him whip passes over and around defenders when he's penetrating. He was impressive delivering passes on time and on target to the roller when his man switched in ball-screen situations.
If Fizdale can limit the risks Baldwin has to take and allow him to make simple reads, he could be effective as Conley's backup.
Concerns
The highlight dunks and finishes at the rim are not frequent enough to stomach the sloppiness in Baldwin's game. He earned those 3.3 turnovers per contest.
Baldwin's main issue is that he has a loose handle, especially for a point guard. There was one instance against the Minnesota Timberwolves where Tyus Jones applied some pressure near half court, and Baldwin fumbled the ball away into the backcourt. He struggles dribbling anytime he gets in traffic and loses the ball in these instances far too often.
Baldwin also has a tendency to get caught in the air and make difficult passes that have little chance of succeeding. This part of his game is something that good coaching can help fix.
Baldwin has the ability to make spectacular shots at the rim thanks to his long arms, but he's never been an efficient scorer in the paint. He made only 50.4 percent of his shots at the rim last season, according to Hoop-Math.com. He should be a much better finisher than that considering his length and athleticism.
Expectations
Baldwin is a project in many ways, and the Grizz have some insurance with the addition of Harrison, so they can treat the rookie as such.
The 6'5", 210-pound Harrison was also turnover-prone and shot the ball poorly in Las Vegas, but he played a cleaner game than his younger teammate. Both point guards have enough size that they could eventually play together. For now, though, it's hard to see Fizdale trusting both on the floor at the same time.
Harrison spent his rookie season in the NBA D-League, and he showed enough to earn a three-year deal with the Grizzlies. Baldwin already has a guaranteed deal because he went in the first round, but he would benefit from time in the D-League to clean up his game.
It's possible the team keeps both guards up, with them trading minutes throughout the season while Fizdale goes with the hot hand. But the smart money is on Harrison to get the first shot at the backup job as the Grizzlies bring Baldwin along slowly.
Complete Stat Predictions
- Minutes: 8.5
- Points: 2.5
- Rebounds: 1.0
- Assists: 1.1
- Field-goal percentage: .333
- Three-point percentage: .295
- Turnovers: 1.2
C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.
